저자: SoraDoesntKnow · 외국인
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발표자는 3개월째 레버리지 ETF(UPRO, TQQQ) 중심 리스크 패리티 포트폴리오를 운용 중이며, 장기 국채 헤지로 TMF 45%를 편입했다고 밝힘. 분기 리밸런싱 결과 수익을 자랑하고, 과거 평균 연 20~22% 기대치를 언급. 401k·Roth IRA 수익률과 연 29% 성장 가정 복리 계산으로 40세 전 은퇴 가능성을 제시. 장기 국채금리는 하락 방향이 필요하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey guys i just wanted to discuss here um my leveraged etf portfolio based on risk parity um so i have here my m1 finance account pulled up um i just rebalanced for the quarter i've been in this strategy for exactly one quarter maybe a day short of that um and so you see here for the one quarter results as you see from my other video i was expecting an average of 20 to 22 per year based on historical averages since 1987 um of this portfolio now mine's a little bit different so um that's why you'll see here why am i doing a little bit better it's a little bit more higher validity just slightly but uh you'll see as i go into this here i'm running 45 tmf which is the same hedge as my last one my long-term treasuries i have that uh is doing pretty well actually um as far as being a hedge it's it's kind of doing what it's supposed to do as the eu pro which is the s p and the tqq strategies are doing very well this is kind of just staying flat which is fine because we don't want it to uh to go like these are going at the same time that'll ruin the strategy of the ebb and flow as as this goes up this goes down and vice versa we want the rebalancing to work so you want to have good solid amount of rebalancing per quarter this just was was down by almost 10 percent which tmf in my asset allocation and i just rebalanced today in the 9 30 a.m window here um so as you see um the rate long-term treasury rates are uh the lowest of the highest they've been as far as rate wise since about a month and a half ago which is good that these are going down or back up again as far as the rates we need that to happen but here's plan one finance what i have so far this is just about one year of roth ira investments maybe a little bit more than that i maxed out last year's uh this year because we had a little bit extra time to max that out like mid july this year due to due to the thing going on um now i also wanted to show you guys here my uh my fidelity account um so i had to couldn't go on the web page they were just showing my account numbers everywhere no matter where what page i went on so i took a screenshot i have two separate accounts uh one's like a retirement accumulation account that my job puts money in every uh every pay period and the other ones have 41k where they match and i get to put in i can't commingle them or combine them together so they're separate here which is showing why there's different uh symbols for each of these multi duplicates but as you see here overall um i'm up almost to get that same amount as the m1 finance this one's been going on a little bit longer but it's more gradual because it's every bi-weekly money is going in so the percentage is going to be different but as you see just about 30 for the year so far and just over a quarter on this strategy here so i like to think this is doing really well um you know if this continues and i get this every year just what i've gotten in this quarter if i get managed to get this on average every year i'll be sitting pretty in 10 years like i imagined and uh i'll be doing all right i'll hopefully have my freedom financially to uh you know what let me go ahead and uh i have a 401k document here if i can pull it up here for you guys um let's see here i have it on documents retirement let's see if i can find it here nope um i don't know where it is let me open up excel i really want to show this to you guys oh here it is let me get out of this here so oh that's that's based on the uh 11.4 but if i if i go i made a 401k uh let me put my microphone down here foreign calculator so if i just uh let's just say somehow i'm able to get this 29 year-over-year which would be absolutely incredible i'm just going to put this on two so it'll go ahead and um you would extrapolate the data oh not one two nine just two nine it seemed a little low i was like wait a second these numbers don't seem right so pretty much if i average um 29 a year which would be the most incredible thing you could think of here um by the time i hit 40 um because right now i'm 31 so i'll i'll be at a you know the one the one uh seven digit mark so it's pretty exciting uh to say the least i think uh once i hit 40 41 if i have this amount here i'll probably go ahead and just exit my current position in my job um if i feel like this is working for me now of course um if you add randomization into this this won't be exactly like this who knows it may be more would be less but you know once once this takes off once you get seven like look at this like at that rate in a few years you're doubling and it's the doubling effects just every couple years that point you're doubling and it's just crazy how fast this thing gets on the roll and if this you know there's there's something to be said though i've been thinking about it this here is just a graph from uh some other stuff based on like s p figures um there's something to be said about the uh sorry my throat about the compounding effect um it also if you felt like you've won at some point to maybe put something in a safer investment because obviously you know there is there is a circumstance where this doesn't work but i mean there's a circumstance in life where everything doesn't work so if you're willing to you know put your money where your mouth is um like i'm trying to do here and you know this is something i could work out so just wanted to share this with you guys here um my idea well not my idea because of course i can't take credit for a hedge fund use uh post on vogelhead's form but it certainly is a great idea that i've read through a whole bunch i've read through the entire 200 pages i'm pretty much i may have missed one or two here and there but i've read through the whole post and i've come to my my conclusion of this is the asset allocation that i like add in the tqq um i wanted to show you guys that i'm actually doing this i'm not just talking as a youtuber of someone that comes on there and says oh try the strategy and puts a new strategy on every month i don't even have a finance channel um this is my i have a variety channel i just post whatever i feel like and that's it really so it's a fidelity there's my balance so far my fidelity um you know haven't been investing very long but so far i've um you know in a in about uh uh six months time i should have one year's worth of assets or one year's worth of uh of salary and hopefully that compounds and i can get to that 25 um 25 year mark pretty soon which is uh what you should have to retire i believe it's 25 times your yearly salary anyways that's it that's all i'm gonna go ahead and exit this out here sorry for the uh if i don't look too good i just kind of been moseying around this morning taking care of some errands and stuff and uh just wanted to post this for you guys you have a great rest of your day and uh stay classy
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