저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인의 희소성(2100만 개 상한, 공급 성장률 약 0.9%로 금보다 낮음), 기관 투자 확대, 새로운 자산군으로서의 특성을 장기 가치의 근거로 제시한다. 비트코인은 매수 후 보유하는 장기 자산이며 변동성은 점차 낮아지고 있다고 주장. 또한 ARK 포트폴리오 밸류에이션 프리미엄이 2021년 275%에서 현재 10~15%로 하락해 역사적 평균(90%) 대비 낮으며, 밸류에이션 조정은 끝났다고 본다. 생산성 향상과 저인플레이션, 완화적 통화정책이 다음 강세장을 이끌 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
Scarcity value will drive, or will increase, because of the supply-demand imbalance, with institutional investors having very little involvement yet. So we think this is just the beginning, for individuals and institutions. It's a buy-and-hold asset because it's in such early stages, and really think about that. Institutions probably have trillions committed to digital assets broadly, and Bitcoin only has 100 billion dollars more that will ever be minted.
Cathie Wood begins her commentary by outlining three major forces she believes are driving Bitcoin's long-term value. First, it's decentralized, which makes it resistant to censorship and government control, an increasingly important feature in today's global financial landscape. Second, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, which introduces a level of scarcity not seen in traditional fiat currencies that can be printed at will. Lastly, she highlights growing institutional adoption, noting that more companies, investment firms, and even governments are starting to recognize its potential as both a hedge against inflation and a long-term store of value.
Right now is a golden entry point. Like and subscribe before this video goes parabolic. The key drivers are three. The first is that it is becoming a substitute for gold as a store of value. Younger people prefer Bitcoin to gold, and I think they believe it's basically the same thing. Both of their prices are determined by scarcity value. In the case of Bitcoin, we're moving toward 20 million Bitcoin having been minted since the beginning of its existence in 2009. The total that will ever exist is 21 million. So only 1 million more to go, which is about a hundred billion dollars.
Scarcity value is becoming more important, especially since, for the first time, Bitcoin's supply growth dropped below the long-term supply growth of gold, which is 1%. With the latest halving last year, the supply growth is now roughly 0.9%, and that will continue to go down over time. Unlike gold, if the gold price keeps going up, its supply growth will pick up its pace. That cannot happen with Bitcoin.
The second reason is institutional investment. Bitcoin represents three things. It's a technology: the blockchain underlying Bitcoin is a layer the internet missed out on in the early 90s, because developers had no idea financial services would take place on the internet. That is now being put in place. It's a store of value, as I just described, which is why most young people are attracted to it. And it's a new asset class that does not behave like other asset classes. Sometimes it behaves like the NASDAQ, sometimes it doesn't. During the regional bank crisis in the US in early 2023, it boomed, because everybody understood there was no counterparty risk here, unlike with the banks back then. So it doesn't behave like any other asset, which means institutions and asset allocators have a duty to assess whether it deserves a role in their portfolios or asset allocation. If they say no, they had better have very good reasons.
The hundred billion dollars I mentioned: institutions either have to take up those newly minted Bitcoins, which will happen over years and years, or they'll have to pay up to get holders to sell. So again, scarcity value will increase because of the supply-demand imbalance, with institutional investors having very little involvement yet. We think this is just the beginning. If you look at Bitcoin over time, the volatility was incredible in the early days, 200 to 300%. It has been coming down consistently, to 40 to 50% now. If you believe in the scarcity value of Bitcoin, just like gold, which has had ups and downs, you'll be willing to put up with the volatility. It's the sort of asset where you put it in your portfolio and just leave it there. Of course there will be trading around it, and that's great for the exchanges. We're involved with Coinbase, and that's great for exchanges. But for individuals and institutions, it's a buy-and-hold asset because it's in such early stages. Really think about that: institutions probably have trillions committed to digital assets broadly, and Bitcoin only has a hundred billion more that will ever be minted.
Personally, I have bought Bitcoin outright. Many of our clients wouldn't let us put it in the portfolios, so others are playing it through Coinbase. Robinhood is developing a crypto strategy as well, and so is SoFi. eToro here in Europe just went public, and we added it to our portfolios, since it has a crypto strategy. Many are forced to go in directly just because of their platforms. I'm thinking about advisors now. I realize you're DTC, so your clients can buy it outright.
The last thing I'd like to add is that there's a way to straddle the two, and that's ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved; the SEC approved them last year. ARKB was one of them, and that's ours. It's a way to get pure-play Bitcoin exposure without dealing with a wallet or a wallet provider.
At the 2021 peak, ARK's portfolios were priced at a 275% premium to the S&P 500, based on enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA, factoring in stock-based compensation and R&D. Today, that premium is down to just 10 to 15%, well below ARK's historical average of 90%. Kathy Wood believes the valuation reset is done, and her team sees strong productivity, lower inflation, and supportive monetary policy setting the stage for disruptive innovation to drive the next bull market.
Let's watch more clips from the interview. Our strategy is more volatile than the market, because these are long-duration strategies, so they get hit harder during turmoil. But the ironic thing is that when consumers and businesses are afraid or worried about the future, they become more willing to change the way they do things. Better, cheaper, faster, more productive, more efficient, more creative products and services: that's what we do. What you usually see toward the end of a correction or a bear market is that our stocks start outperforming before the broader market does, and that has happened this time as well. We went through tariff turmoil, went down more than the market, and now we're up more than the market. The question now is whether this will be sustained. If we're right that we're moving from a rolling recession to a strong recovery with surprisingly low inflation, because it's going to be productivity-driven, I think we're in for very good days for innovation, in all kinds of equities.
Our stocks over the last four years have faced three major headwinds that are going to turn into tailwinds now. The first was the interest rate shock in 2022. Just because interest rates go up or stay up doesn't usually bother our strategies. Look at 2017 and 2018, the last time Trump was in office: interest rates went up, and we outperformed the market in both years, our flagship strategy was up. The problem was the shock of the interest rate moves, and we're not going through another one of those. That headwind is done. The second headwind was the concentration in a very few stocks, which made for what I describe as an unhealthy, not broad-based, bull market. We think that's changing. We started to see it upon the election of President Trump, then we had the tariff turmoil and the backtracking, and now we're seeing it again. The third headwind was valuation. At the peak in 2021, our portfolios sold at a 275% premium to the S&P, measured using enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA, adjusted for SBC and R&D. We worked with S&P to get that metric. Today we're somewhere in the 10 to 15% range relative to the S&P 500. Since ARK's existence in 2014, we have on average sold at a 90% premium, so we are well below average and well below pre-COVID levels. That headwind is gone as well.
As Cathie Wood emphasized, the case for Bitcoin has never been stronger. It's no longer just a speculative asset. It's a technological breakthrough, a monetary revolution, and a long-term store of value with institutional capital waiting to enter, spot ETFs gaining approval, and supply steadily shrinking. Bitcoin is rapidly becoming a key pillar of the future financial system. Don't stop now. This next video is pure alpha. Click it.
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