저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스의 『Mastering the Stock Market Cycles』 2장 해설 영상. 투자 성과는 사이클 이해와 정보 우위(지식, 해석력, 정서적 인내)에서 나오며, 평균 이상 수익은 어렵지만 가능하다고 설명. 매수·매도 타이밍과 출구 전략, 리스크(영구적 자본손실, 기회손실)와 확률 분포 사고를 강조. 거시 예측보다 추세와 경향 파악이 중요하다는 주장. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
So hello guys and welcome back to FB Edge research. So basically we are uh now held to the series of a new book known as mastering the stock market cycles. So basically this book is written by Howard Marx and we are into the second chapter. In the last chapter we talked about uh introduction and we talked about what are cycles.
In this session we are going to talk about a question. You see if we talk about the great text like Mahabharata and Ramayana and also if we talk about the crux of Mahabharat that is Bhagat Gita and we recite the first stroke of it. It says like Kimura Sanjay. What happens here? Is asking his chariator that it starts with a question.
which are bestellers from thousands of years like Raman and Mahar. The start of them starts with a question. and then questions the supreme, what should I do? So here's a question for us in our context is why is it important here for us we have why to understand cycles. So author writes that the odds for us to win changes as we change our positions in the cycle.
If we don't change our positions we are little bit ignorant or pessimistic towards cycles. If we if we are really ignorant towards cycles, we'll be not allowed to tilt the odds into our favor or using odds into our favor. If we had a little bit of investment of our time in understanding cycles, we would have taken bets more aggressively against the odds that come into our favor.
Now in the next thing we are going to understand about investment. What is an investment? Investment are the matter of preparation for future. This is the simple definition of investment. What is the task of an investor? That we assemble portfolio that we hope will get an adequate return or substantial potential gain for us in future.
If we talk about us and the professional investors, what is the difference between an average investor and a professional investor? If we say we just have to generate portfolio, we just have to allocate the capital that we have into a set of stocks that that that uh which is uh collectively known as a portfolio and we have to generate returns.
What is so difficult in this is a simple process but as we told all simple things are not easy. What professional investors do is they try to generate more return as compared to average investors and they generate more returns as compared to the market benchmarks. This is very important. It is always easy to generate an average returns but it is very difficult to generate above average returns.
So what is that one thing that is making an professional investor a professional investor and uh is making a differential differentiation factor between me and a professional investor. The key word here is edge. And what is that edge? That edge is knowledge. The edge is information that he have. If we talk about the macro future, we the author says he don't really think that he can predict things on a macro level.
Most of the people they have skills of doing that and most probably they get results but they don't happen for everyone. So if you say that just learning or just trying to predict macro future is not working, what should we do? This is going to be discussed in the further pages of the book. But what is that one edge and why do those investors get it?
Either they have better data than us. Either they are doing a very good job of interpreting data and uh moving it into collectively information for them that helps to get better results or will have a emotional fortitude. If we talk about what is emotional fortitude, it's an ability of a person or mental and emotional strength of person to face adversities and difficult situation.
So if we have uh so if we talk about uh if we have some information let us take two cases. If we have case one as a normally individual investor and if we have a professional investor an individual investor if we have the same information as an individual investor. If our method of analyzing is same and we are going to derive the same results and we have we are going to come to the same conclusions and then we try to expect that we are going to generate an above average return that is an unexpectable expectations that should not ideally happen.
Basically if we talk about author the author says when he talked to Warren Buffett he told two things are very important to understand and those two critical things are you should know information that is important to know and the second one is information that should be knowable. So basically if we want to become a very good investor we should uh invest our times into three things.
Basically the author writes us to understand more about the knowables to understand about more fundamentals and foundations of securities stocks and the markets to pay the appropriate price to come or to invest into the fundamentals. And the third one that is most important is understanding the investment environment we are in and deciding how to strategically position our portfolio.
Very important. We must be very specific about what is the information that is coming to us and what are we deriving the conclusions based on that because the conclusions that we derive will be strictly based on the quality of data that we receive. So the data that we analyze as a equity research analysts should be really positive in itself and really intrinsic in itself.
In short, if we say through a Warren Buffet style, it should be knowable. The key word here is calibrate. If we do some investments, we should do it accordingly. We should heed the investments. We should obey the cycles and do investments. If we talk it in Hindi, we can say situation decisions taking decisions based on situations.
So what here we have written is that amount you have invested your allocation of capital along various possibilities and riskiness of things on your own should be calibrated. Basically decisions. Each and every decision should be well planned and then executed. In the financial markets, we talk about stop- losses.
There should be always a stop-loss. There should be always boundaries set that helps us to exit at the right time. The entry sometimes is not really important than exit. Most of the people if we observe in the market they they talk about entries but the strong thing is on exits. We don't see lot of exits.
We don't see lot of exit reports in the market that happens due to the contribution of management and the ratio scientists and get out of ethics but that's a different story altogether. He also says that when you're getting valuations at really cheap, you should be really aggressive. And when you think the valuations are too high, pull yourself back.
This is not as simple as how it seems to to our ears or how good it feels to understand. It is really difficult for an investor to predict the right price or the intrinsic price of stock and the future potential of the stock. Hence it is said the professional investor on creating an above average return takes a lot of hard work and patience.
Another key word is tendency. So if the factors that influence market are predict predicted most of the people will pred predict it. But there is a statement in market which says there are always moving factors in the market. There are always variables in the market. The problem is when the variables that are moving keep changing.
So if we talk about tendencies like this is a story which is said by paras. There was a frog and there was a crack as crab to sit on his back. The frog made an agreement that you will not bite. But the time when crab sit on the frog's back and the frog launch, the crab bites and both of them fails. Now we are going to talk about the tendencies which some before sometime we were telling we'll come to the later pages.
It's okay that we cannot predict the macro future but we can predict the tendencies of market. We can understand or we can predict what should happen or what can happen. You also want to understand about risk. We listen to the word a lot and the word is risk in the financial markets but we don't have a specific definitions to it.
If we talk about risk what what could be the biggest risk? The biggest risk could be the risk of likelihood to uh exhaustion of or permanent loss of total capital. Or it could be a opportunity miss or a opportunity risk where you are missing potential gains. It could be risk of possibly not happening of things that you tend or you feel should happen because they are expectations and market doesn't move with your expectations.
In we are in the financial markets and in financial markets if you really want to survive you have to go with the trend you you need to hug the markets you need to say I'm not right market is right and market is always right so essentially the risk says that we don't know what will happen and that is the greatest risk each factors that are moving they have comparatively a lot of risk.
So basically when we talk about the risk is when more things happen then that what we have predicted can happen variables effect as compared to predict. In theory, we can very well create a portfolio that generates a very good and adequate returns where we hedge ourselves from difficult situations or difficult odds.
But when we are coming to investing and doing it practically, it's really difficult. Anyone hoping to deal successful with the future has to create. First is the probability distribution of long run. Even though many things can happen only one will. If for example we thought of a particular stock which are uh affected by four to five variables that constantly affect the markets or the particular stock only one thing out of that thing is going to happen.
Now what we need to think is it is good that we created a view on it whether what will happen but the author says one more thing is really necessary is to check to have a SWAT analysis of really what is the proportion of you winning or you matching with the results of the markets. Investing success is like choosing lots.
Let us take an example for this. A successful investor is a person. Let us suppose we take an analogy. We have walls full of chits. And what are these chits? These are probability distributions. A investor knows what chits are there or what are the probabilities of winning lotteryies in the board. A professional investor is not a person who knows how to predict future but he's a person who has an above average return as compared to that of retailers.
So basically if you move more further and if we talk about decisions we talked about now that when we are taking decisions we should or conclude we come to conclusions based on something. Let us suppose I want to buy Hindustan Motors on XY Z price and I feel the prices are going to rise. Do you really 100% are you really confident enough that price is going to rise or you say price may rise?
See there are always differences in conclusions that you derive and the amount of credibility you should give to those conclusions. If we talk about any bond which gives 10% a return, we can have a substantial confidence in ourselves that yes almost 90% it may give 10% return. Or if we talk about mutual funds or if we talk about fixed deposits, if we talk about moderate conclusion, we may say that maybe something could happen.
But if we talk about conclusions that have least credibility, we ask questions like I think what will happen tomorrow in the market because no one knows what happens in the market. It's the only edge in the market is about knowledge and nothing else. So basically some events can be product predicted by substantial confidence that like I said will the bond give 10% of return some are uncertain like will Amazon be still a market leader in online retail or not and the third one obviously we talked about will the stock market go up or down that simple the most important Important thing is that we did the first step of us making conclusions right.
We have to add a step of re-evaluating and checking the probability of us being right and matching with the market results. With this I conclude. Thank you.
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