저자: Mason—미상가능성있음 · 외국인
요약 보기
NotebookLM으로 기업 10-K·실적자료와 워런 버핏 주주서한을 분석하는 투자 리서치 방법을 소개. 테슬라 리스크 예시(평판 리스크, 2024 인도량 13% 감소 언급), ASML EUV 장비 독점(시장점유율 80%) 분석, 애플·마이크로소프트 비교, 오디오 개요 학습법, 손실 시 감정적 매도 경계 및 종목당 5% 이하 분산을 권고. 예측 발언은 과거 사실 위주이며 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Buried 128 pages deep in Tesla's 2024 financial statements was a risk most investors would have missed, but Notebook LM found it in 5 seconds. All I did was ask, "What are the top risks facing Tesla that aren't highlighted in detail, but could be big for the business?" First thing it spotted, reputational risk from bad publicity.
It even quoted Warren Buffett, "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it." Fast forward, Tesla deliveries dropped 13% globally. BYD became the number one EV car maker in the world, largely due to Elon's political controversies. I'm Mason, a qualified accountant who works at Amazon and has been investing since 2020.
And this tool would have saved me countless hours if I had it when I started my retail investing journey. So, in this beginner-friendly video, I'll show you three powerful ways Notebook LM will change how you invest. Plus, two bonus hacks that let you speak with investment legends for free, and the biggest mistake the beginner investors make that can cost them thousands of dollars.
Starting first with how to research any company using Warren Buffett's exact strategies. But before I show you that, here is why we even need a system like this. When you are researching a stock, your brain is quietly working against you. It's something called cognitive bias. It makes you overvalue the last article you read.
That's recency bias. Or it makes you look for information that only confirms what you already believe. That is confirmation bias. I have seen firsthand how big firms build systems and mechanisms to fight these biases every single day. A significant majority of retail investors don't research their stock and just follow the hype.
And those who do research spend hours doing this and still miss obvious red flags. Professional investing services like Morningstar or Yahoo Finance Premium charge hundreds of dollars for what I'm about to show you for free. Go to notebooklm.google.com. Upload any company's latest 10K filing and earnings transcript.
In this case, I'm going to use ASML, which is one of the companies I have shares in and strongly believe in its future potential. Next, I uploaded Warren Buffett's shareholder letters from 1977 to 2024, which includes his investing wisdom, which he summarizes every year by writing one letter to all of his shareholders.
Then I clicked the configure chat option and selected custom for conversation style, and then pasted my custom Warren Buffett investment analyst persona prompt. Don't worry about writing this down. I'm giving you my complete notebook LM investment assistant and this prompt for free at the end of this video.
What this prompt does is ensure Warren Buffett's investing strategies are applies each time we analyze a stock. Now, I'm going to ask it to analyze ASML's 10K financial statements, and in less time than it takes to make a coffee, we have investment grade analysis worth a couple of hundred dollars. It tells me ASML is profitable and growing with a healthy backlog of orders.
Most importantly, it accurately highlights that ASML dominates with 80% market share in EUV lithography machines, the exact machines Nvidia and Intel need to make their chips, and ASML is the only company in the world which makes those machines. This research on its own would have taken a week if you asked a advisor to go through the report and pull out all of the themes for you in a new format for a company you have no idea about.
But remember, there is no rush in investing. And there is a lot more you need to understand before you put your money, and we'll cover some of this later in the video. Now, what if you need to compare multiple investment options? The next method allows you to do exactly that. Whenever I'm comparing stocks, I'd usually end up with 20 browser tabs trying to remember which company had better margins and the information is just all over the place.
Professional investors use paid services like Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Premium, or Motley Fool, which can cost a couple of hundred dollars just for comparisons. Retail investors are stuck with free websites that include loads of data, but unless you have strong analysis skills, it's very hard to understand the story behind that data.
I'm going to upload annual financial statements from Apple and Microsoft into Notebook LM and unselect all the other sources I may have in this notebook. So, the AI will just use these two documents when answering my question. Then, let's ask it to compare Apple and Microsoft's financial performance over the last 3 years using Warren Buffett's investing strategies and conclude which is the better buy.
Notebook LM delivers a comprehensive analysis of financial performance, economic moats, risks, and opportunities facing both Apple and Microsoft. Economic moats basically means things which a company has which are very hard for anyone to replicate. For example, going back to ASML, it's the only company which makes the machine which are needed for chips making.
There is no other company in the world which can do that. So, that's the moat ASML has. Now, I'm not going to go into the conclusion whether Microsoft and Apple is a buy based on its recommendation because you shouldn't just use this information to make a decision, but it has given you more analysis to make an informed decision.
It actually highlights the limitation of its analysis, which is what you'd expect from a seasoned analysis because it only used the data we provided and doesn't take into account the most recent information which may be out there on the internet. Which is where you can use the discover feature within Notebook LM.
You can ask for most recent publications regarding Apple and Microsoft and Google's Notebook LM will go through the internet, search for relevant sources, and bring them into into the notebook, and you can then ask the same question again, but the analysis would be updated based on all the information it has now got to its sources.
Now, before I show you the next feature, you can grab the same Warren Buffett investment assistant. As I've shared it on the web, you can get the link for it and start asking questions about investing, which will it answer using Warren Buffett's investing principles. Now, investing in stocks, in particular individual stocks, is not easy piece of work.
So, the question becomes, how do you learn all those additional skills about investing responsibly? And this becomes more difficult when you're already busy with work and life commitments. Here is a powerful hack to solve for this. Most financial podcasts or videos are either too basic or too complex.
They are not tailored to your level of intelligence. You either get generic advice that does not help, or it's very jargon-heavy analysis you can't follow because you're just a beginner in the journey. What you can do is you can upload the latest earning reports and financial report results of a company you are targeting in Notebook LM.
And then you can generate audio overviews. But before you do that, hit customize and use the same Warren Buffett prompt from segment one. This ensures that the audio overviews also think like Warren Buffett when creating the audio analysis. Once you click the audio overview, you will have a podcast where two AI hosts talk with each other on the content you've given.
But here is where it gets even better. You can ask interactive questions while listening. And that's what makes it more tailored to your current level of understanding of investing. You can pause a podcast and ask, "Explain the concept of price-earning ratio and PE ratio for the Apple stock." Okay, so simply put, the PE ratio is a company's current share price compared to its earnings per share.
Exactly. It essentially tells you how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's earnings. You can access these audio overviews both on your laptop or your mobile because Notebook LM recently launched its mobile app. Now, to take it to the next level, you can create a learning playlist by uploading multiple investor books.
This can include Warren Buffett's letters, Peter Lynch's One Up on Wall Street, Ray Dalio's Principles, and there is a tons of books which are really good on understanding how to invest, and you can generate audio summaries for each. You can transform your commute into an MBA-level education on investing in stocks.
Now, the final strategy when it comes to investing is to start with companies you already know and use. Think about Apple if you have an iPhone, because you understand the business. Think about Amazon if you shop on its website. If you have a brick company near your house, can you check if it's on the stock market?
Or if you have a fertilizer company you pass by every day, you understand their business, check if it's on the stock market. Once you know the companies around you, identify their earnings report, put them into Notebook element, and analyze their businesses in detail. Pick one company per month to research using this method.
But, here is the trick. Only invest in every second or third company you research. Most analysis should end with, "Interesting, but I will pass." That's how you avoid bad decisions. And after 12 months, you'll have analyzed 12 companies and developed better instincts. Now, before we wrap up, let me share the biggest mistake I see beginner investors make, and I have made it myself as well in some of my initial purchases.
The biggest mistake isn't necessarily picking the wrong stock, but the reason behind it. And that is letting emotion drive your decision after you invest. Here's what typically happens. You do all this research, buy a stock, and then it drops 10 to 20% the week after you purchase. That is completely normal.
But, beginners panic and sell at a loss. The S&P 500 has historically returned an average return of 10% over the last 100 years, but there have been periods when it was down by 10 to 50%, and it was a huge market crash, and people sold. And then there were people who kept their stocks in their pockets and didn't sell throughout these times, and in the long run, they were better off.
The stock market is principally designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient is a famous quote from Warren Buffett. Notebook LM helps you research stocks to make better decisions, but it cannot eliminate the emotional challenge of watching your money fluctuate. If seeing red number makes you panic, start with small amounts that won't keep you up at night and make sure you diversify.
Do not put more than 5% of your investment in one stock and build emotional tolerance over time. The key thing is to remember that Notebook LM can't predict the future or guarantee profits. It just helps you make more informed decisions faster. You should still use all the other information out there such as different ratios, different criteria on how to identify a stock, and if you're interested and want me to make an in-depth video on how I identify stocks, let me know in the comments.
I will be happy to make a dive deep on how I analyze and invest in stocks. Now, these Notebook LM research techniques are powerful, but they're only as good as the investment principles guiding your investment decisions. That's why I spent countless hours analyzing every single one of Warren Buffett's 46 shareholders letters from 1977 up to 2024.
What I discovered wasn't just investing advice. It was a psychological framework that explains why 90% of investors lose money while Warren Buffett turned $100 into 100 billion. You may like this video where I shared the eight investing rules I learned from analyzing his shareholder letters.
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