저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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글로벌 증시가 과열 신호를 보이며 주요국 지수가 사상 최고 부근이라 경계가 필요하다고 주장. 미국 부채(37조달러)와 이자부담이 커져 중앙은행의 유동성 공급에 의존한 시장은 거품이며, 미국 약세장이 오면 최소 70% 하락할 것이라고 전망. 최근 미국 주식은 매도했고, 중국·독일 등 일부 시장이 강세이며 파키스탄 주식을 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 금 관련 직접 언급은 없고 실물 은(silver) 매수를 제목에서 권유.
다듬은 글
All these signs of weakness sometimes are considered bullish. I mean if everything is bad can only get better and so we should all pile in and buy. I am not of that persuasion. I am not piling in and buying. No, no, no. I see markets around the world many of them at all-time highs. and to repeat when everybody's happy.
In my view, somebody should at least ask questions and I only know one or two markets that aren't wildly high right now. You mentioned China. I will also mention Newspakistan where I do own shares and where I bought more recently. But most markets around the world have been going up since 2009. Jim, that's 16 years.
That's a long time. That's the longest in American history. So maybe it's going to go on forever. All I can remember is that in my day that people would say they wanted to intern and they would come and intern for very little money or no money and if they were any good they would get hired. So I guess that's the answer.
Just show somebody how good you are. don't cost a lot of money and not upfront, but if you can show somebody you're good, you'll probably get a job. In other words, you got to hustle. It's Isn't that the way it's always been? I mean, I'm older than you and it's always been that way for me and I thought it was that way for everybody.
I sold my I sold my US stocks, but I can see what's going on. I remember back to what we were discussing. of my very first job. I was sitting there doing a spreadsheet my first day, first week on the job and some senior guy came running into the my office mate and looked it down at me and said, "You still doing spreadsheets?" And you know, I felt a little embarrassed, but I will tell you that guy no longer has a job.
Well, he didn't have a job very long because he was too good to do spreadsheets and to do deep research. He was above all of that. And soon he was out of the business. So I happen to still know that those who are willing to do their research and willing to do the work will probably be successful in the end.
And it's usually the ones who love what they're doing who are most successful. And I happen to love what I was doing. Despite soaring equity indices like the S&P and NASDAQ, seasoned investors are sounding alarms. Why? Because when everyone seems optimistic, history tells us that's precisely when caution is needed.
The guest in this conversation admits to dumping US stocks, citing signs that mirror dangerous past cycles. Profits are slipping, consumer spending is down, and even US airlines, usually strong economic indicators, are posting bleak forecasts. Still, the markets push higher. But just like 2008, irrational exuberance can mask an oncoming collapse.
It's not about timing the market, but recognizing the bigger picture before it's too late. So, when we look at the S&P and the NASDAQ, the last time we spoke, you expressed a lot of concern about where we were at that time. Are you still uh very concerned about the financial markets in the US, and you just mentioned that you pretty well sold all your US stocks?
Well, I hope I mentioned earlier that I'm very concerned. Yes, I'm extremely concerned. I can see what's going on. Most many markets around the world are doing extremely well right now. There only a couple that aren't. And normally when everybody's happy, it's a time at least to start asking questions and maybe be worried.
So I'm worried. And to your point, many markets around the world are doing extremely well. Um we're already halfway through the year. One of the top performing markets in the world was China believe it or not is measured by the eyeshares up 22%. I think the second best with Germany that's up 20% the and to put that into perspective the US is up 5% give or take but maybe you can help me make sense of all this because when I look at what's happening in the US when I look at the global economy all I see are indications of weakness and yet these markets just keep going higher and higher and higher and we've seen company after company come out with profit warnings here especially after Q1 we're going to start seeing Q2 numbers shortly and it's going to be interesting to see what they said.
But uh the message we got in Q1 was that people were pulling back on their spending. And when you look at the airlines, I think the airlines are a great barometer of what's happening with people in the economy both from a business point of view and also a a personal point of view. But every airline in the US, Delta, American, Southwest, JetBlue, uh said they're seeing a huge decrease in in spending or people flying.
What are what are your thoughts on that? And how do you make sense of all these I guess dichotoies that we're seeing that we see these anecdotes of weakness uh throughout the global economy be but at the same time all these financial markets are making new all-time highs. Well, China and Germany have emerged as surprise winners this year with markets up over 20%.
In contrast, the US lags far behind. This performance gap highlights deeper structural issues. While America is riding high on stimulus and optimism, countries like Usuzbekiststan, yes, Usuzbekiststan, are attracting smart money due to undervalued fundamentals. What we're seeing is a global divergence.
Frothy Western markets powered by liquidity versus emerging markets driven by tangible growth. It's a story of contrast and possibly future opportunity for those willing to look beyond the headlines and into markets where real value still exists. All these signs of weakness sometimes are considered bullish.
I mean if everything is bad can only get better and so we should all pile in and buy. I am not of that persuasion. I am not piling in and buying. No, no, no. I see markets around the world many of them at all-time highs. and to repeat when everybody's happy. In my view, somebody should at least ask questions and I only know one or two markets that aren't wildly high right now.
You mentioned China. I will also mention Pakistan where I do own shares and where I bought more recently. But most markets around the world have been going up since 2009. Jim, that's 16 years. That's a long time. That's the longest in American history. So maybe it's going to go on forever. Mr. Trump will tell you, "Don't worry.
He's got everything under control." When Mr. Trump tells me not to worry, I worry even more. So I hope it's going to go on forever, but I doubt it. It never has. So let me ask you about that or let me push back a little bit because maybe it is different this time because both the governments and the Fed or the central banks around the world just continue to pump money into the system and every time something happens like we saw back in 2022 23 we saw a problem with the regional banks in the US Silicon Valley Bank and uh two or three others all collapse but yet the Fed comes in right away and they just pump billions or trillions of dollars into the system and everything's fine.
Do you think this is just going to keep going on and so this market maybe never pulls back or anytime we see this this pullback like we saw in April, May, it's just a huge opportunity to buy it. Well, you said maybe that means it's different this time. No, they always have done that. central banks around the world.
It's as long as I've been in the business. All they know is print more money, pump more money into the system, bail out the system, save my job, save my job. They don't care about the system. They care about saving their jobs. And that's what they're doing. Again, in my experience, that's not different.
That's what they've been doing since the beginning of time, since the beginning of central banks, I should say. From the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank to pandemic era stimulus, central banks have made one thing clear. They'll do whatever it takes to keep the system afloat. But here's the problem. This isn't new.
Governments have been printing money and kicking the can down the road for decades. Every bailout feels like a solution until it becomes the problem. The flood of easy money inflates markets artificially, creating a false sense of security. When markets rise because of central bank intervention, not organic growth, we're not building stability.
We're inflating a bubble. And history shows bubbles always burst. You and I have spoken a lot in the last few years, and one of the things you always bring up are debt levels. And in the US, the the federal government is sitting on $37 trillion worth of debt. I can't believe that number, but that's what it is.
Interest payments are approaching $1 trillion a year. And one of the big concerns right now are interest rates. And for every 1% move or increase of 1% in interest rates, that's costing the federal government an additional $300 billion in interest. How do they resolve this? And does it even matter anymore?
Like, do you think the governments just keep kicking this can down the road and you and I are speaking in a year or two years from now and we're at $40 trillion? Well, Jimmy, let's say they continue to do this and they will tell you that it's different. We have the system under control now. Don't worry.
Everything is okay now and it's different now. And if they say that, which they will say if they haven't already, my answer to you is get very, very worried because I know I mean I've been to this movie before. I know this movie how it ends and I know it's always ended badly. Always. And I know it's going to end badly again.
My problem is, I mean, I have to watch your show to find out when, but I know it's going to end. You tell us when, and we'll all act. The US federal debt has now crossed $37 trillion with interest payments nearing $1 trillion a year. That means every 1% rise in interest rates adds another $300 billion in debt servicing.
It's a financial death spiral. At some point, the system cracks. Either taxes skyrocket, spending collapses, or the currency devalues. None of those options are painless. And yet, policymakers act as if they can ignore gravity forever. But the laws of economics are unforgiving. If we keep pretending that debt doesn't matter, we're heading for a fiscal reckoning unlike anything this generation has ever experienced.
Tell us the day before so we can act sooner. And when you say it's going to end badly, maybe can you quantify that? Like where do you see the S&P going? Is it down 20%, 30%, 50%. In my lifetime, the bad bare markets, the typical bare market has already always gone down 50, 60, 70%. Sometimes, and some stocks go down 90%.
The high flies usually go down even more. So, I will tell you unequivocally the next bare market in the US is going to go down at least 70%. I will tell you it's going to be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you. So, it means the worst in your lifetime because it's been the longest without a problem ever.
And this and the situation continues to get overextended more and more I should say more and more extended or worse depending on who's commenting in my view. What's worse you know Allan Greenspan and those guys will tell you don't worry we have it all under control. You remember Alan Greenspan? Of course.
Well, he's not there anymore, but I'm sure if you call him up, he'll tell you, "Don't worry. It's all under control." And even if you don't call him up, he's going to tell people that. Historically, major bare markets drop 50%, 70%, sometimes more. Tech darlings and high-flying stocks usually get hit hardest.
This time, veteran investors believe the crash will be worse than any we've seen. Why? because we've gone longer without a major correction than ever before. And the problems, especially debt, are bigger than ever. If the S&P crashes 70%, it signals more than just market panic. It means mass layoffs, recession, and possibly a depression.
Unemployment could soar past 10%. The system is bloated, overleveraged, and fragile. And yet, the central banks are still telling us, "Don't worry, it's different this time." The central bankers are really the epitome of politicians, aren't they? You can never get the truth out of them. Well, that's how they get the job.
I mean, if they were if they weren't politicians, they wouldn't get the job. If they if you call them up, said, "Oh my god, you got to be worried." They'd hang up the phone and call somebody else. But if you call if you tell them everything is great, don't worry. We've got it all under control. They'll say, "I'll give you a promotion, too, and a raise."
And Jim, if you're looking for a pullback of 70% in the financial markets, the S&P say pullback. I said the bare market when it comes, right? I'm sorry, maybe I'm making a difference in a pullback and a bare market. Right. But what you're saying is you think the S&P or the NASDAQ will go will drop 70% from its highs.
Okay. Always. What I said was, Jimmy, it's always has. Maybe it's different this time. Hooray. Maybe Mr. Greenspan is right. It's different this time. Don't worry. It'll never go down 70% again. But what I will repeat what I said, it always has in the past. Now, if that were to happen, that's essentially an indication of what's happening in the economy.
Okay? So, things would just be in total dire straits. You know, we would be in a severe recession or depression. Uh we'd have significant ne negative economic growth. The unemployment rate would be well over 10%, I would envision. Would you agree with that? Like where would you see the unemployment rate going in that sort of scenario?
Well, Jimmy, I repeat, that's what's always happened in the past. Mr. Greensman will tell you it's different this time. Don't worry. And I will tell you, no, it's not different this time. It's always happened in the past and it's going to happen in the next bare market, too. And one reason I say that is because the debt in the US is so unbelievably high now.
The US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and the debt gets higher every week. So how can we not have a bad bare market? Now maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the central bankers are right. They have solved the problem. But I repeat, always in the past that's what's happened.
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