저자: Secron Capital · 외국인
다듬은 글
one of the things I find a rule like a couple rules I want to throw I might find useful excuse me there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much huh you know how much were there gonna go down I remember Polaroid went from one hundred and thirty to a hundred people said here's this great company great record but ever gets below 100 you know just by every share you know and it didn't get flow 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 100 it's not 95 what I buy within a year was 18 and there's kind of no debt I mean there's a company was just so overpriced it went down I did the same thing in my I think my first or second year fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 here to 16 I said how much more can it go it's 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser industries at 14 I said you know it's bad for 26 to 16 I was looking to go what can I call my mother and said mom you're gonna look at this guy's registries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10 while I went to 6 and went to 5 and went to 4 and went to 3 and I unfortunately I'm rapidly err I would probably be still caddying or working at the stop and shop but I it happened fast is able to this is compressed that uh and at 3 I figured out you know there's something very wrong here these pies are industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they on Kaiser broadcast and and ties of sand gravel Kaiser engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that itself so will achievement they had no debt and the whole company at 3 was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but I said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they do is it gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed on shares and kind of cement the best I chairs in Keisel unum they passed out the public shares and Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact that stock picked up for 26 to 16 and then it got to 10 what would you do when went to 9 what would you do when to eat what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is a SAS Fox because they didn't know why they bought it then I went down and they don't know what to do now if you flip a coin you're walking around the block you know what do you do it's psychiatry so having worked so far I've never seen them running and aside the psychological psychiatry fund I've never seen listed for the with the SEC to make it through as a mutual fund so they haven't seen the help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the the so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down eventually they always come back this one is uh this one doesn't work either people think RCA just about the back to its 1929 high when General likely took it over a lot of double nits never came back none of those beauties floppy disks Western Union the list goes on and on people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I have had people call me up saying I'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much could I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you point now if you if you put $20,000 in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at full at 50 into this thought and you put $20,000 into three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything if people say it's three how much can I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the own this may be a reason to research just on the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it and in fact short-sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't sure at Home Depot they don't show the great companies Johnson Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to seven they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at 7 this company is gonna go to 0 they just haven't blown caps on this thing yet it's going to 0 and they're selling short seven they're selling short at six at five at four three at two with one and a quarter and you notice something short you need a fire something us to buy the damn thing and you want to who's buying this thing that these people saying it's three how much lower can it go the wood you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history as the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10% or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market Falls 10% we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years of market Falls 10% all those 50 declines 15 have been 25% or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the markets gonna have a 25% decline that's all you need to know you need to know the markets gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you should know it stocks and it's good one happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to 6 that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're gonna happen you'll be very people tell you about the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and so you can take advantage of the bolts in the market if you understand what your own so I think that's the key to element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970 1971 public already had a great record in at 15 years performance great balance sheet you could await 10 years saying you're very conservative Esther you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operate in small towns you're afraid they only make it a separate state you want to wait till they go to more states you keep waiting you can about Walmart ten years after one public and made thirty five times your money you bought it when they went public you would've made five our times money but you can wait 10 years after while Michael in public it made 30 over 30 times your money
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