저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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2022년 주식·채권이 동시에 하락한 원인은 연준의 금리 인상, 즉 할인율 상승에 따른 밸류에이션 하락이라는 주장. 연준은 2021년 초부터 긴축을 시작했어야 했는데 2022년 3월에야 시작해 늦었다고 지적. 이후 급격한 금리 인상으로 자산 가치가 하락했다고 봄. 연준은 12월 회의에서 50bp 인상이 예상되며, 개인적으로는 그 이상 올릴 필요가 없고 멈춰서 상황을 살펴보길 바란다고 언급. 장단기 금리 역전은 과거 경기 활동에 좋지 않은 신호였다고 설명. 인플레이션의 대부분은 이미 지나갔다고 판단. 연준은 주거 통계 집계 방식 때문에 주택 인플레이션을 과대평가하고 있으며, 실제 주택·임대 가격은 하락 중이라고 주장. 2023년 중반쯤 연준이 금리 인하로 돌아설 것이며, 실업률 상승과 실업수당 청구 증가가 확인되면 시장은 4~5개월 먼저 바닥을 칠 것이라고 전망. 2022년 상반기 기술적 경기침체(GDP 2분기 연속 감소) 발생. 2023년 성장률은 약 1% 수준 예상, 상반기 둔화 후 하반기 회복 가능성 언급. 노동 사재기(labor hoarding)와 상반기 생산성 악화를 지적하며, 경기 둔화 시 기업들이 초과 인력을 빠르게 줄일 수 있어 노동시장 연착륙이 급격히 무너질 수 있다고 경고. 주식 저점은 6월 혹은 10월의 이중 바닥으로 보며, 중국 변수는 중요한 리스크라고 언급. 경기 침체가 와도 금리 인하 시작 후에는 실적 하락이 신저점을 만들 만큼은 아닐 것이라고 봄. 주식 시장은 장기적으로 10~15% 저평가 상태이며, 2023년은 주식에 매우 좋은 해가 될 것이라고 전망. 다만 단기 예측에 생명을 걸지는 말라고 덧붙임. 중국 제로코로나 정책은 큰 재앙이며, 중국 인재가 서방으로 이동할 가능성이 있다고 봄. 우크라이나 전쟁보다 중국 문제가 더 큰 이슈이고, 유가는 침공 이전 수준으로 하락해 세계 경제에 긍정적이라고 언급. 2024년 대선과 세제 변화(트럼프 감세 만료)가 향후 주요 정치·경제 이벤트가 될 것이라고 전망. 기대 대비 악재가 이미 상당 부분 반영되었고, 서프라이즈는 하방보다 상방에 있을 가능성이 높다고 판단.
다듬은 글
well certainly it's been a disappointing year for equities uh worse for bonds actually relative to their historical performance uh one of one of the few times in the past 15 or 20 years when both bonds and stocks have moved decisively lower and the reason for that is very clear the FED as we talked about a year ago Dan was extremely late in its uh tightening mode it should have started tightening early in 2021 and in fact it didn't begin until March of this year more than a year later than it should then it seemed like the FED which was Ultra dovish I I remember uh on the networks I called Jay Powell the most dovish chair of the central bank that uh I had ever seen suddenly he got religion and became Ultra hawkish at first of course I uh I cheered in you know last November when the pivot was voiced it didn't really start till March it was fine April May you should have started raising it faster but then and surprising many people in the middle of the summer I got alarmed that Powell and the FED were raising it too fast because I saw a Slowdown in the price increases and I began warning that the danger now is over tightening nonetheless this has been the fastest increase in the FED funds rate that we have seen probably in the post-war period and is as every Finance student at Wharton and around the world knows Financial assets are discounted at the interest rate plus a risk premium and when the FED sharply raises the interest rate those valuations must go down and they did um I a tribute therefore most of the decline that we see to the rise in interest rates not the fear of recession not that there isn't a fear of recession there most certainly is but if you take a look at it is mostly a interest rate phenomenon that has caused this decline oh most certainly without question if they started increasing the end of 2020 even or beginning 2021 we wouldn't have to go as high we wouldn't have had the inflation that we had and they wouldn't have to go as high as they had and equities uh in my opinion would not have had as big a burst as they had in 2021 but we probably would uh have an increase in this year a milder increase last year and an increase in this year uh had they actually started earlier I think now uh we're going to get an awful lot of data as you know uh before the meeting my my expectation is a 50 basis points and honestly Dan I would like them to stop there and pause and look around uh truthfully I don't even think another 50 is is called for but uh I think that that is certainly uh what what is in the cards at this point for the December 14th meeting the FED has inverted the yield curve which of course means that they've sent short-term rates above long-term rates that has not been a good sign in the past for economic activity my feeling is is that uh the vast majority of inflation is behind us uh I have also voiced strongly the opinion in the media uh that the FED is misreading current inflation particularly because of the way the government collects housing statistics they still think housing inflation is going on a very rapid rate when in fact all the evidence on the ground is that house prices and rental prices are now declining not Rising but because of the lagged way in which the government collects those statistics they show they'll see the housing sector which is a very important sector of core inflation continue to rise throughout the rest of this year and and early 2020 23.
what's not a certainty at this point uh If the Fed continues to hike next year or stays High I I I think they are going to start bringing down the FED funds rate by mid-year type way too long type way too long type way too long tight way too long type weight and I think they're going to see the evidence of the Slowdown once they see that uh unemployment rate rise jobless claims rise and the real economy so often they're going to back away and start talking about decrease that's going to really encourage the market we all know the market turns uh up four to five months before the economy actually bottoms and don't forget this year we had a technical recession in the first half of the year so uh two declining quarters of GDP now uh we had a mild increase in the third quarter fourth quarter looks positive however we don't have all the Christmas sales in yet as we speak we'll see how it is but this has been a very poor year for GDP growth I think we're going to be growing maybe only one percent this year which is again normally you have recession following booms so I don't think we we may not we may just have a period of slow growth in the first half the FED then lowers the rate and then we uh can commence growing again in the second half of 2023.
yeah whether there there was a lot of hit labor hoarding not only by the tech companies but by many others because all they heard about is impossible to hire impossible to hire if you get someone a body a warm body you keep them and uh and I think there was over hiring and one of the reasons why I think that was over hiring is uh we take a look at the productivity statistics in the first half of the year they were the worst six-month productivity uh statistics in 75 years but they were hiring a lot of people they were training them the people weren't working effectively when the economy slows they could and if they see a labor market out there they could start getting rid of these excess people quite quickly and we really could see a rapid softening of of the labor market uh as they realize that they don't have to hoard labor anymore I think we've seen the low um either in June or October sort of a double low uh we do have some wild cards that are being thrown in particularly China now uh uh which I think is a significant issue but I think when the FED starts bringing rates down even a mild recession would not cause earnings to go down enough I think to cause a new low in the stock market now you know I say that Dan because no one in the short run will should ever put their their life at stake on what they say about what's going to happen in this in the stock market my feeling is is the stock market is anywhere from 10 to 15 percent undervalued on a long-term basis and I think 2022 is uh 2023 is is actually going to be a very good year for equities not bad at all uh actually uh you know they often say gridlock uh Wall Street likes grid lab because they think the government interferes too much with business so if they don't get uh a lot of things done except for of course National emergencies uh that that isn't a bad thing I think of course everybody is going to be positioning towards 2024 those elections what are the Republicans going to do are the Democrats going to keep Biden is it going to be new faces I really think that that is going to be the most interesting uh political events of the next uh two years I mean there will I mean the fact that thems keep the Senate they will get some appointments uh perhaps no Supreme Court justices in these two years no no uh pending uh retirements there but fed some federal judges some commissions uh appellate judges Etc and so on uh the house will effectively block any tax increases but we also have to be reminded that after the 2024 election uh the tax cuts that Trump put into effect many of them expire so what the makeup of Congress will be after the 2024 election it will be critical to see what kind of tax regime we have by the middle of this decade yeah I think China is a bigger issue now than the Ukraine uh I mean we see oil prices really down to pre-invasion levels uh which is basically good for the the world economy I mean there's a lot of stress in Ukraine and I'm not trying to minimize the human suffering that's occurring there what's going on in China though I would have never guessed a year ago the zero code policy I think is a total disaster it seems like Chinese are seeming to agree with that conclusion that that I mean that they you know with with over a billion people an economy that's just about equal to ours and in total size to go into this zero covet is could be a big uh a big negative shock I I'm concerned about it uh I think there's potentially some good things to come of it I think that some of the great uh minds and entrepreneurs are gonna leave China and come to the west and decide I'm not staying back in China like many of our former students our Chinese students or Asian students often thought they'd learn in the United States and then then they go back and and make their fortunes uh in China uh a lot of them are now wondering whether they want to go back yeah I I'm definitely cautious optimistic some people say that that that this is the most anticipated recession uh going into next year ever because so many people are forecasting it and uh when when too many people forecast something you know my feeling is is that uh often uh that drives the market uh below its uh fundamental values so it might uh a lot of bad news is now factored in I think the prices uh I think the surprises are more likely on the upside than the downside
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