저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 향후 수개월 내 시가총액 1조 달러 도달 전망, 애플은 연말 3조 달러 전망이라는 낙관론. 테슬라: 비트코인 투자 약 15억 달러, 평가이익 약 10억 달러로 전기차 사업 이익을 넘어설 것으로 언급. 비트코인 변동성은 리스크지만 테슬라 스토리의 일부가 될 것. 현재 주가 약 743달러 기준 비트코인은 주가에 아직 반영 안 됨, 투자액이 30~40억 달러 이상으로 늘면 SOTP에서 고려 가능. 중국 사업만 주당 약 100달러 가치, 올해 약 80만 대 인도 전망. 테슬라 전기차 시장: 향후 10년간 약 5조 달러 규모 전환 스토리, 포드·GM 등 경쟁사도 전기차에 적극 투자하나 현재는 테슬라 독주. 비트코인 확산: 향후 12~18개월 내 상장사의 5% 미만이 비트코인에 투자할 것으로 전망, 규제 명확화가 선행 조건. 애플: 아이폰12 슈퍼사이클로 올해 2억4천만~2억5천만 대 판매 가능성, 2015년 기록 경신 전망. 서비스 부문만으로 1.2~1.3조 달러 가치, 이에 따라 연말 3조 달러 시총 도달 전망. 최근 주가 하락은 일시적 반응으로 판단. 애플 TV: 스트리밍에서 넷플릭스·디즈니에 뒤처짐. 실질적 경쟁력을 위해서는 스튜디오 인수(MGM 등) 필요, 콘텐츠 M&A 압박 예상. 리스크: 비트코인 변동성이 테슬라 주가에 부담이 될 수 있으나 아직 비중이 작다고 평가.
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uh shares of tesla right now it is down nearly five percent profits from tesla's bitcoin investment so on track to outpace profits from his electric vehicles the company's already made roughly a billion dollars on paper that's at least according to our next guest web bush securities dan ives uh managing director there dan let's start with the case there because i you know the billion dollars uh in terms of profits on paper certainly a significant return when you consider the investment was only announced a few weeks ago and yet you look at the volatility of what bitcoin is trading today and that seems to point to sort of the the risk that internally introduced now because of the significant investment it's made in cryptocurrency how are you seeing the payoff here between the risk and the volatility and also the profits that come with it yeah it's a great question i mean look one and a half billion that they've invested so far about billion profit and like i've said that's more than all they made on eb vehicles in 2020 but that continues to be the double sword it's going to add risk to the story and and we're seeing that in terms of the volatility but ultimately as far as through trees in terms of where tesla must see bitcoin it's going to be a part of the tesla story not just from an investment perspective but from a transaction point of view as well and this just in my view just is going to continue to be a big part of the story going forward especially as we go into those golden age ev's yeah i mean my question would be how frustrating that is maybe for an analyst who's believed for a while and has has been right on kind of the upside here in tesla i mean does it does i i imagine it's got to be a headache for you to now factor in these swings that are stemming from bitcoin and maybe how it could be as critics point out may be a bit of a distraction in the tesla story uh moving forward yeah i mean but at this point it's still contained one and a half billion i think that's something most investors that i've talked to still viewed the goal post there is pretty contained relative to the overall assets and it's a side show because ultimately the overall story here is the transformational ev story 5 trillion over the next decade and right now it's tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent in terms of evs but you see ford gm others that are really going all in on evs and there's going to be a big enough ocean for more than one boat i think we're just in the early innings of this eevee story playing now and that's why tesla i still think this is a trillion dollar mark cap over the coming months in terms of how you value tesla though has that shifted at all is it really if you look at the 743 dollars roughly it's trading at right now is it ultimately on the evs on the batteries how do you factor in the bitcoin investment in the overall price yeah so far i still view bitcoin is not being factored into the price if that starts to be three to four billion that they invest or more then that starts to be something more significant that you could factor in to the sum of the parts but right now we think china alone is worth a hundred dollars per share and you look at what's happening there i think tesla's going to be on track to hit toward 800 000 units for the year and that's really the story here and i think bitcoin will start to play more of a role as it becomes more of a bigger percentage transactions or from an investment perspective but we still believe although a ripple effect less than five percent of public companies will be investing in bitcoin over the next 12 to 18 months until he serves more regulatory gold yeah i mean is it gonna take them upping their investment for it to need to be priced into where it goes because even just the size of it as you rightly point out was up pretty significantly if you put in one and a half billion is about ten percent right or under 10 of their cash uh or cash equivalents into bitcoin i mean if we continue to see a rally there it's it's going to be a larger and larger piece of this company yeah and i think that becomes slippery slope because going back to your other point you don't want this sideshow to ruin the overall ev party i mean in terms of even where it trades today you'll see stock down with bitcoin down but i think that's something if it starts to get to 20 percent of cash 25 then i think it starts to become more front and center but for now it's it's really a green field opportunity especially with a bad and green tidal wave on the horizon and where tesla's positioned i think that's where you're going to see these ev stocks that have taken a bit of a pause and even what some of the chinese players neo and others but i think over the coming year these stocks are going to be up significant dan let's shift our attention to apple shares they're down about two and a half percent in the session right now but you have said that you believe apple can hit that three trillion dollar market cap by the end of the year walk me through your thesis there how much of this is about the growth and the momentum we've seen in the new iphone sales how much of it is about the services sector yeah and a big part is the super cycle it's not just hype in terms of iphone 12.
it's playing out we've seen that from our tracks across asia and i think more and more just getting bullish into march and june and right now cupertino is on track to be potentially 240 million 250 million iphone units for the year that will just massively beat the record from 2015. so i think this is an unprecedented super cycle that plays out and then it's just a further monetization on the services service is key to re-reading we think services alone is worth 1.2 to 1.3 trillion that's why i believe as we go into later this year we have a three trillion dollar mark cap with apple and i view this sort of pause that we're seeing in the stock post what we saw in terms of numbers last month it's just a i've used a knee jerk now i'm not going to be sustained but i still see a green light to own apple here dan if there is one weak point that we've heard some of the critics apple critics highlight is maybe weakness on the apple tv side relative to what we've seen in you know and obviously apple has a lot going on um but the plus that disney plus has gotten from investors is they've leaned into streaming obviously netflix so what's your take on maybe what more can be done to really boost apple tv now or is it just completely in this grand scope of things it's just not important for apple well yeah and it goes back on streaming the biggest strategic mystique in my opinion from jobs and cook over the last 10 to 12 years was not acquiring netflix a number of years ago and now you look on streaming well behind look what's happening in the arms race with disney the only way that apple becomes a legit player is if they buy a studio we've talked about an mgm alliance gate in 824 otherwise they're going to continue to sort of be on the outside looking in and that's why you know i think this is something they're going to be more and more forced into doing m a because it's all about content and right now they've had great content but they have a mansion with little furniture and that's the problem when it comes to this arms race we're seeing especially with disney of course netflix top of the heap yeah not a lot of wrongs to write there but maybe that uh one as you rightly point out uh one that they've been slow to kind of jump on but dan ives wed bush securities managing director i always love having you on thanks again for joining us
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