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hey investor friends i'm michelle markey and today i'm going to share investing advice from highly respected investor howard marks who sat down with katie koch the chief investment officer of public equity at goldman sachs in june 2022 where he talked about the mindset and temperament you need to have to invest in stocks that aren't in a bubble and maybe they're no longer in a bubble but howard marx's line of thinking is way closer to ray dalios in not calling stocks in a bubble unlike other investors who have like jeremy grantham and michael burry and so howard marks educates people on where you need to be willing to go as an investor to be successful in investing in stocks and so if you're also on the hunt for wisdom so that you can up your investing game please be sure to hit those like and subscribe buttons because it greatly helps out with the youtube algorithm i greatly appreciate it and i hope you enjoy the following so i reached two important conclusions it's not what you buy it's what you pay and success in investing doesn't come from buying good things but from buying things well and if you don't know the difference you're in the wrong business literally so everything you buy should offer some combination of excellence of quality and or attractive price you don't want to buy a great company at a terrible price you don't want to buy you don't want to buy probably don't want to buy something which is uh horrible fundamentals at a at a really low seeming price it's the trade-off that you're looking for last question on the market cycle so in your first book you include the poor man's almanac for investing and it's a very it's a checklist well especially it's facetious of course yeah semi facetious so there are some things to look for to see whether your negative sentiment's negative or positive and basically if the sentiment's too positive you want to hold on to your wallet it's like a quick summary of it yeah so do gps have all the power to lps have all the power are the languages negotiating and negotiating and negotiating in terms of funds and then uh another one was lenders are eager or they're reticent capitals abundant capital scarce somewhere in the verbiage you put in there that if you're popular at a cocktail party that's a warning signal that things are too euphoric um but if you go through that i'm not gonna ask you to make predictions but you think about that framework we've just laid it out here where are we in this cycle because you said we can know where we are now well i think i think we're in i think we're in moderate territory today you know and i have not some people started calling you know bubble two years ago june of 20.
i haven't called bubble at all i think things are high but not crazy and i you know i think that valuations have always been reasonable relative to interest rates it happens that real interest rates couldn't stay as low as they were so valuations have proved to be vulnerable but i just don't think it's crazy and and now i think that the events of the last uh six months have taken uh the you know the bloom off the rose uh that uh that most of the excesses have been driven out mm-hmm so you know i again i think reasonable um i was you know in in thinking about coming here uh this morning and uh you mentioned that that i had more correct forecasts than i admit but the truth is they weren't forecast they were just observations of current conditions but nevertheless when i was working on the book about market cycles with my son andrew who was a very good professional investor i said to him andrew you know i think when i look back i do admit i said i think most of my market calls have been correct he says yeah dad that's because you did it five times in 50 years and but it was a it was a very profound thing he said because five six seven whatever it is times in my career prices were either here or here and when prices are at absurd extremes the case the logic for a market call is very strong and the probability of being right is very high but not when it's here or here or here or here or here or here you know and that's that's really the difference and we're here well i think we're here here but i mean but the point is the point is here i mean prices here are have always collapsed whatever here is defined as but if i say to you what's the probability of a decline in six months here you might say it's 95 you would never say 100 to anything in my opinion but here it may be 75 and here it may be 55.
and then when you pass intrinsic value then and you're selling below well what's the probability that six months next six months are up uh 55. 75 95. so you know one of the biggest mistakes you can make is to think that overpriced and going down tomorrow are synonymous markets that are overpriced often keep going and and uh you know well kane said it best of anybody he said markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent and some so somebody who bets that a market which is irrational is going to a market is too high we say that's irrational somebody who bets heavily that that means it's going down tomorrow could lose his shirt or her shirt because because markets often are overpriced and become more overpriced and more overpriced and more overpriced and more that's why we have words like rising market bull market bubble and if it were true that every overpriced market reverts and becomes fairly priced then we would never get a bubble because they would stop going up here but sometimes they go to here and sometimes go to here when they get here the call is pretty safe uh especially if you add the word eventually so so what so what that means is as long as you realize that nothing is sure to happen in this business every every every irrationality can be exceeded that means that you should try to bulletproof your affairs so that it may be likely to happen but you want to be able to last long enough so that you're around when it happens i want to talk a little bit about um emotion for a second um and you've said that you you need to either be unemotional or act like you are and i wanted to go actually back to a story you said you talked about before which is that you this 2008 which a lot of people in this audience weren't here and i think if you weren't there you might not appreciate how scary that actually was i mean you went through the dominoes of all the banks falling yeah but were you scared when you and bruce were putting the capital to work how did you or if not how did you keep yourself from being emotional well first let me say if you think about the norm what happens things are going well the economy's performing well companies are reporting good earnings stock prices are rising everybody's optimistic and the longer this goes on people become more and more and more positive yeah and until they they buy here and when they run out of money then things turn around then eventually the economy weakens then the corporate profits aren't so good and start stop prices start going down and people start losing hope and they as this continues they get more and more depressed and more panicky and they stop start fearing further losses until they sell out down here in other words they they tend to buy more here and sell more here which is what the opposite of what we all should do my mother said howie buy low sell high and and and uh so emotion is our enemy emotion tends to get us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time and we have to resist that and one thing i point out is that the the influences that affect the crowd and make it do what i just described those influences are universal and i feel them too and you feel them too and everyone in here we read the same newspapers the news is the same for all of us in order to outperform by definition you have to depart from the crowd you have to hold a different position and you have to have resolve to do it and it's it you know it's just it can't be easy and you know uh i had a one of my colleagues came to me in 98 talking about ancient history long-term capital had just melted down and we had the ruble uh default and the southeast asian crisis and there's a lot of things going wrong and one of the guys who considers himself to be a very thoughtful is that oak tree though right yes yeah oak tree comes to me and he says this is it i think it's all over i think the financial system is going to melt down i think he explains to me all these things and i said great thank you for sharing that with me now go back to your desk and do your job i said a battlefield hero is not somebody who's unafraid it's somebody who's afraid but he does it anyway i mean if you're in scary circumstances to be unafraid you kind of have to be a nut but the key is can you be afraid and do your job anyway i was just going to ask you if you thought it helped that you had each other well i think i think it's very important that we have each other and we buck each other up yeah and and you need that because you know what i wanted to say yeah is dave swenson who for 35 years ran the the dominant yale and did a bang-up job and he wrote a book called pioneering portfolio management i think was in 98 or 9.
and he said that successful investing requires the adoption of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions everybody has has the same influences everybody thinks pretty much the same everybody anoints the same winners and the same and criticizes the same losers and obviously the tomorrow's winners are usually found on the pile of today's losers not on today's pile of today's winners but to prospect in today's pile of losers the things that everybody else are junk you have to be idiosyncratic you have to take on idiosyncratic positions and it's a rare person who can do that and not feel some discomfort so i think that those two words uncomfortably idiosyncratic tell a huge part of the story but you have to do it and you have to when you know when lehman goes under you have to buy you you can't sell you
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