저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
Ackman은 벤저민 그레이엄의 '지능형 투자자'를 투자 입문서로 꼽고, 가격과 가치를 구분하며 투기가 아닌 투자는 기업 가치를 장기 현금흐름으로 추정하는 것이라고 설명한다. 예측 가능한 독점적 사업(유니버설뮤직그룹, 스트리밍 성장)을 고르고 안전마진을 확보해 매수하는 것이 핵심이라는 주장이다. 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
in your lecture on the basics of finance and investing you uh mentioned a book intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham as being formative in your life what key lesson do you take away from that book that informs your own investing sure actually it was the first investment book I read and uh as such it was kind of the inspiration for my career and a lot of my life so important book you know bear in mind this is sort of after the Great Depression people lost confidence investing in markets World War II and then he writes this book it's for like the average man and basically he says that you have to understand the difference between price and value right price is what you pay value is what you get and he said the stock market is here to serve you right and it's a bit like the neighbor that comes by every day and makes you an offer for your house makes you a stupid offer you ignore it uh makes you a great offer you can take it and that's the stock market and the key is to figure out what something's worth and you have to kind of weigh it he talked about the difference between you said the stock market in the short term is a voting machine it represents speculative interests you know supply and demand of people uh in the short term but in the long term it's the stock market's a weighing machine you much more accurate it's going to tell you what something's worth and so if you can Define what something's worth then you can really take advantage of the market because it's really here to to help you and that's kind of the message of the book in that same way there's a kind of difference between spec ulation and investing yeah speculation is just a bit like buying trading U crypto right you're strong words well uh short-term trading crypto maybe in the long run there's intrinsic value but uh the you know it's many investors you know in a bubble going into the you know the the crash uh were really just pure speculators they didn't know what things were worth they just knew they were going up right that's speculation um and investing uh is you know doing your homework uh digging down understanding a business understanding the competitive dynamics of an industry understanding what Management's going to do understanding what price you're going to pay you know the value of anything I would say uh other than love let's say uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life now some people think about love that way but it's not it's not the right way to think about love but it's um yeah so investing is about basically building a a model of what this business is going to produce over its lifetime so how do you get to that this idea of called value investing how do you get to the value of a thing even like philosophically value of anything really but we can just talk about the things that are on the stock market sure companies the value of a security the value uh is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over its life so if you think about a bond a bond you know pays a 5% coupon interest rate you get that let's say every year or twice a year split and half and it's very predictable and if it's a US Government Bond you know you're going to get it so that's a pretty easy thing to value a stock is an interest in a business it's like owning a piece of a company and a business a profitable one is like a bond and that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow you know every year the difference with uh a stock and a bond is that uh the bond it's a contract you know you're going to get as long as they don't go bankrupt in default with a stock you have to make predictions about the business you know how many widgets they going to sell this year how many going to sell next year uh what are their costs going to be how much of the money that they generate do they need to reinvest in the business to keep the business going um and uh that's more complicated um but you know what we do is we try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time and there very few businesses that you can have really high degree of certainty B and as a result you know many Investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future so we what we do for a living what I do for a living is find those rare companies that you can kind of predict what they're going to look like over a very long period of time so what are the factors that indicate that a company is something is going to be something that's going to make a lot of money it's going to have a lot of value and it's going to be reliable over a long period of time and what is your process of figuring out whether a company is or isn't that so every consumer has a view on different brands and different companies and you know what we look for are sort of these non-d disruptable businesses a business where you can kind of close your eyes stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's going to be a more valuable more profitable company so we own a business called Universal Music Group uh it's in the business of helping artists become Global artists um sort of recorded music business uh and it's in the business of you know owning rights uh to sort of the music publishing rights of songwriters and you know I think music is forever right music is a many thousand year old uh hum part of the human experience and I think it will be you know thousands of years from now and so that's a pretty good backdrop to invest uh in a company and the company basically owns a third of the global recorded music that's you know the most dominant sort of market share in the business they're the best at taking an artist who's 18 years old who's got a great voice and has started to get a presence on YouTube and Instagram and helping that artist become a superstar and that's a unique talent and and the result is the best artists in the world want to come work for them but they also have this incredible library of you know the Beatles the rolling ston you two Etc so and then if you think about um what music has become used to be about records and CDs and you know eight track tapes for those of whom and it was about a new format and that's how they drive sales and it's become a business which is like the podcast business about streaming and you can streaming is a lot more predictable than what than selling records right you can sort of say okay how many people have smartphones how many people are going to have smartphones next year there's a kind of global penetration over time of smartphones you pay call it 10 11 bucks a month for a subscription or last for a family plan and you can kind of build a model of what the world looks like and predict you know the growth of the streaming business you predict what kind of market share Universal is going to have over time and you can't get to a precise view of value you can get to an approximation and the key is to buy at a price that represents a big discount to that approximation and that gets back to Ben Graham Ben Graham was about what he called uh invented this concept of margin of safety right you want to buy a company at a price that if you're wrong about what you think it's worth and it turns out to be worth 30% less you paid a deep enough discount to your estimate that you're still okay it's about investing a big part of investing is not losing money if you can avoid losing money and then have a few great hits you can do very very well over time
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