저자: David—소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 Nebius 주식에 약세 입장을 취했다는 보도를 계기로, 강세·약세 양측 논거를 함께 검토. Q2 2026 그룹 매출 5.823억 달러(+454%), AI 클라우드 매출 5.75억 달러(+514%), 연간 런레이트 30억 달러. 계약 전력 목표 5GW, 2027년 연 1GW 이상 배치 계획. 2026년 고객 선결제 90억 달러 이상 예상. AI 클라우드 조정 EBITA 마진 50%는 그룹 전체 이익률과 다름. 버리의 베팅 자체는 결론이 아니며, 용량 인도·매출 전환·자금 조달·수익률 4가지를 주시해야 한다는 입장. 투자 권유 아님.
다듬은 글
What's going on everybody and welcome back to Invescue. And it would appear that Michael Bur has taken a bearish stance towards Nebia stock. And the thing that gets my attention is the fact that this is coming from a time when Nebius is actually experiencing rapid growth in its AI cloud business. But the thing about Bur being bearish on the stock is it doesn't answer the question of whether or not it's a good or a bad investment per se.
But the useful question in my opinion is that you should be looking or we should do some research into what it is he's actually concerned about and what do Nebius what do Nebius's actually results tell us. So today I'm going to be looking at both the bull and the bare side of things and the growth that has investors excited and the cost of building enough AI infrastructure to deliver on that growth.
And if you guys are looking for tools to assist you in analyzing stocks more efficiently, please check out the link below for the $7-day trial to Prophecy and Nebius. What they do is they provide AI infrastructure. Oo, I had to do a little bit of stress, but they also provide C computing capacity, hardware, software, and cloud services that customers use to run AI workloads.
And that places it in a market where demand for computing power has been growing rapidly. And in Q2 of 2026, uh, in the Q2 2026 shareholder letter, Nebius reported 582.3 million in group revenue, up 454% year-over-year. And it said AI cloud revenue reached $575 million which is up 514% year-over-year and reported $3 billion in annualized run rate revenue or ARR.
And those are substantial growth figures, no doubt about it. But and they do help explain why investors are willing to pay close attention to Nebus even while the company is spending heavily to expand. And one clarification on ARR is it's annualiz it's an annualized measure based on the current business run rate and it is not the same thing as the revenue Nebius already collected over the past year.
And to serve more AI customers Nebius needs access to power facilities equipment and financing. And that is the heart of the investment debate because Nebus raised its yearend contracted power target to five gawatts and set its plan to begin deploying more than one gawatt of capacity per year in 2027.
Now those are pretty ambitious expansion plans and the thing about it is contracted power does not mean that all computing capacity is already built. Operating and it's not already built operating and earning revenue. So sites have to be developed and equipment needs to be installed and customers they have to use the resulting capacity and definitely that would take money and time.
So it's not something that just comes like that. But when I hear a large power target, the opportunity can clearly be seen. But I also want to ask the question is how much of it will cost to turn that target into operating capacity and how will Nebus be able to pay for it? Those are the questions that I'd be asking.
And reports do say that Michael Bur has bet against Nebius. And again, the quote I'm looking at comes from Yahoo Finance, specifically from Simply Wall Street. And here's the headline right here. And the potential bare argument is understandable because AI infrastructure demand may be strong. While the companies building it still face enormous capital costs and not only that they have a lot of financing needs, there's a lot of competition and there's uh definitely a lot of risk regarding execution.
those risks are on the table and rapid revenue growth does not automatically tell us what return shareholders will earn from all the spending that Nebius would need to make so or need to do. So I also don't want to present Bur's trade as proof that Nebius is overvalued. A prominent investor can be early.
They can also be wrong and there's potential for them to be hedged or focus on a different time horizon than you are looking at. Um, I'm not necessar And I want to make it very clear m I'm not say out here saying that Michael Bur is right or wrong. And I'm not challenging his credibility or saying that he's not legit.
That's not what I'm getting at at all. I'm just saying that you can't based everything solely on a headline. That's all. And for me, his position is a reason to examine the numbers more carefully. if I was a shareholder of Nebius. Being fully transparent, I don't own any shares of a Nebia stock. But if you do and you are interested, I guess that would be this would be a reason to examine the numbers more carefully.
But this headline alone is not reason enough to buy or or sell your shares of the company if you do own any. And again, this is not financial advice. Do what you want with your own capital with the with the due diligence that you do in your own free time. Now, Nebius also does say it expects more than $9 billion in customer prepayments during 2026 and it has also discussed using customer commitments and financing arrangements to support its buildout.
Now, that does matter because prepayments can help fund expansion, but a customer prepayment is not the same thing as profit. Nebius still has to deliver the contracted service. They need to operate the infrastructure and earn an adequate return after its cost. And the company also reported a 50% adjusted EBITA margin for its AI cloud business in the second quarter.
And that is an encouraging measure for that business. But it isn't the same as saying the entire Nebus Group generated a 50% at profit margin or free cash flow margin. That's why I would read it as reported revenue, capital spending, cash flows, financing arrangements, and adjusted figures together.
I would read all those things together. So, here are the four things that I'd personally watch is first being capacity delivery. In simple terms, how quickly can how quickly does contracted power turn into facilities that are actually operating? The second thing I'm going to be looking out for is revenue conversion because a new infrastructure comes online and the thing is does customer demand turn that into sustained revenue?
And the third thing would be funding. How much of the expansion is covered by customer prepayments, borrowing or other financing? What does each funding choice cost the company and its shareholders? And the fourth thing would be returns. After building and operating the capacity, is Nebius producing enough cash over time to justify the investment?
These questions matter more to me than choosing a side simply because Bur is short or because Nebius's revenue growth looks impressive. And my takeaway, my own personal takeaways is that both sides have real points to examine. And typically that's the case with many things that you analyze with any stock, any company that you analyze because there's always going to be um pretty clear points on both the bull and bare case of anything that you look to invest in.
But nevertheless, Nebius has reported extraordinary AI cloud growth and has major expansion ambitions. But with that with those ambitions uh for expansion at the same time turning those ambitions into profitable cash generating infrastructure is a demanding task. It's can be pretty difficult. I wouldn't know anything about it because I don't have to do that.
I just report the stocks and make the and just reporting in accurate way to you. But I can only imagine how demanding all that would be. But I'm going to keep watching whether the company delivers capacity on schedule and how it funds that growth and what shows up in its financial results. And what do you guys think about Nebius?
And what do you personally think are the biggest issues for the stock? Would you say it's the customer demand, the cost of expansion? Would you say it's the competition or the stock's valuation? Let me know in the comment section below. And as always, please do your own research on do your own due diligence on anything you're looking to invest in because this is just for educational purposes only.
This is not financial advice. And last but not least, if you are looking for tools to help you analyze stocks more efficiently, check out the link below for the $7 7-day trial to Prophecy. But Qu Out. Stay safe and I'll see you on the next video.
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