저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장은 바닥 다지기 단계이며 향후 몇 달은 상승 가능성이 커 보인다는 낙관적 견해. 시장 전망: 지난해 가을 예측과 달리 시장이 조정(consolidation) 중이며, 시장이 뉴스를 잘 소화해 미래를 가격에 반영한다고 봄. 저점에서 3~5% 위에 있고 고점보다는 저점에 가깝다고 판단. 과잉 해소: 빅테크의 과잉 복지·비용 경쟁이 줄면서 비합리적 행동이 빠지는 중이며 파티 막바지처럼 거래량이 줄고 있다고 표현. 투자 전략: 지금의 투자가 향후 수년간 가장 비대칭적 상승을 줄 것이며, 2022년 처음 투자되는 기업들이 다음 상승 국면의 주도주가 될 것이라고 주장. 공포 시기에 부(富)가 만들어진다는 견해. 정책·부채: 미국 정부 부채/GDP 100% 돌파 이후에도 돈을 계속 찍어 만기를 연장 중이라고 비판. 영국 트러스 정부의 감세·재정 확대 후 영국 국채(길트)를 영란은행이 무제한 매입해 정책이 되돌려졌다고 설명, 금융안정이 금융 타당성보다 우선시된 사례로 봄. 리스크: 금리 인상 과정에서 변동금리 대출자의 소비 축소로 수요 파괴가 심해질 것이며, 이후 연준이 개입(풋)할 것이라고 예상. 이 개입이 시장 급등의 촉매가 될 수 있다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 연준 풋 재등장 시 시장이 급등할 것이라는 조건부 강세 전망.
다듬은 글
I'll go out on a limb and predict my equivalent November fall predictions last fall it was at the markets were going to poop the bed my prediction now is that I think the markets are bothering me and consolidating yep 100 and this is the time I think to start nibbling and start getting ready to really rip the money in and I think there's enough signals every day that kind of like tell me at least that on the margin it's time because I think the markets do a reasonably good job of digesting news and then pricing the forward reality right like today's price is really everything we already know and so the real guess is what's about to happen in the future and from my perspective I'm actually pretty starting to get a little constructive here I think that um when when companies like Facebook really do this and you know like if you think about it one way the financial markets have always had this thing that we have called the fed put what does that mean to put is essentially the right to sell something and what Market participants have always known for the last decade is that if things got very hairy if there was uncertainty in the market the Federal Reserve would and they have consistently stepped in to create a buyer of Last Resort and so it always eliminated that last part of true you know Supply demand balance because they would just come and say don't worry in many ways in Tech what the big tech companies were were that you know you could never really find what the true market clearing price for an engineer was or what the true amount of expenses you should spend on office space or you know free services because you always always have these companies which was an escalating arms race you know if one company had a massage the next company had gyms in massage and physical therapists and the other company would have buses to take you to the gyms in massage and therapists in the next company would have protein shakes that were freshly made you know and it just kept escalating and escalating because the costs didn't matter and they wanted if nothing else to get that marginal engineer or product manager or business person to work at their company which eliminated the risk that they would actually start something to disrupt them so when you take this big Tech put out of the market you will get true price Discovery and you will find out what the real price should be for this kind of an engineer that kind of a product manager you'll find out what are the real expenses you need to bear in order to build a real lasting business and you'll be able to sort through all of that stuff out so I think it's a really good moment and again it's yet another indication to me that I think broadly speaking the markets are now starting to stabilize all the irrational Behavior is starting to exit the system the party is in the last few hours volumes going down the alcohol is being taken away people are hanging around with a little bit lights are coming on they're like I've been here a little too long and I think that that's a very healthy process for an economy and I think that that's what's happening right now so I'm constructive I'm a little bullish I'll go I'll go out on a limb I think you know we could be three to five percent from the lows but we're more near the lows than the highs we will we will also relive what we have empirically known to be true and it's been it's been pretty well proven the Investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they'll have the most asymmetric upside and that was true in 2008 and nine and ten it was true in you know 2002 three and four you I mean you're talking incredible companies just in those two periods think about this atlassian Tesla Uber Google Airbnb Uber Instagram WhatsApp incredible businesses that have created tremendous value and so there are businesses that have been invested in for the first time in 2022 and will be invested in for the first time in 2023 and 24 which will be the leading winners of this next phase and this next leg up and so the real opportunity is to find out who those companies are and get behind them I think 100 as I always tell people fortunes are made in the down Market they're collected in the upmarket it is not as if we have a law a constitutional law or it's not as if governments have collectively decided that you cannot have debt to GDP uh above a certain number that doesn't happen guys we passed 100 under Obama and we've just kept printing money so whether we like it or not and I'm not saying I'm a fan of this or it's right we are kicking the can down the road and what we're doing is we're extending the maturities I think the list trusting is really actually a microcosm of how unfortunately Western governments are working but I think there's a silver lining like she basically came in a day after she got elected and said okay guess what guys at the same time I'm going to mass massively cut taxes and I'm going to give you fiscal stimulus I'm going to cap your energy bills and I'm going to have these huge transfer payments from the government into the hands of of British citizens I'm not going to comment on whether that's right or right right or wrong but the financial markets to your point David absolutely hated it and within a few days you basically saw the pound get crushed but then what did you see you saw the bank of England decide that Financial stability was more important than financial viability meaning the things that she wanted to do were not viable so you could have let the financial Market sort this out which would have forced the prime minister to basically abandon the policy but instead the Boe said now we're on the unlimited buyer of UK guilts which is the name of the UK Bond and everything snap back we're back to where we were before her speech and before the chancellor of the exchequer speech and so it's as if nothing happened and that's what's so insane to me which is that way in the next week or two are going to raise rates 140 basis points 140 basis points almost double what the FED has done the last three times they're doing both at the same time they're both raising rates and they're acting as a backstop for bad policy and this is what's wrong right now in the world we do not have a real check and balance so my point to Freeburg is just that I'm like emotionally in on your side but the problem is with these folks keep getting bailed out David they're just going to keep doing this stuff and there's no end in sight well and the the consumer doesn't get bailed out so that if you look at it on a micro basis instead of a macro basis you're correct these governments will just bail people out even if they make bad decisions as we're seeing but then the person whose uh variable interest mortgage just kicked in has 500 less a month in savings so they're now not going to buy an iPhone 14.
they're not going to upgrade their car every six years they're going to do it every eight years so the demand destruction that's happening is going to be quite severe and that's going to reduce money then monetary velocity and then we mark my words the Federal Reserve will intervene this is why I think we're in a bottoming process I think the the bleeding edge of the Smart Financial actors are actually on Sax's side and friedbergside but then they're taking that next intellectual leap and saying okay well what happens when Apple basically says hey guys I'm gonna have to fire 15 of my employees I think what happens is the fed intervenes and I'm just using apple as an example but there there is a threshold of demand destruction Jason I think you're right where we have the fed put come back on the table and the markets just go bonkers
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