저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리를 인하할 수밖에 없으며 9월 또는 이후 연속 인하가 유동성을 크게 풀 것이라는 주장. 머니마켓펀드의 대기 자금이 위험자산으로 이동할 것이고, 미국 증시와 암호화폐 전반, XRP가 급등할 수 있다고 주장. 파월 후임으로는 베선트가 유력하다는 전망 언급. 1분기 GDP 마이너스 등 데이터 근거 제시.
다듬은 글
But if you have the other side, Sheamoth, give it to us. Jerome Powell is in a more precarious position in my opinion as he will be perceived as politicizing the Federal Reserve's position. Cutting rates can be justified by the available evidence. Two things will occur if rates are lowered. As we have discussed, the first is that people will withdraw a certain amount of money from money market funds in order to travel elsewhere and look for higher returns.
At the same time, it will raise the velocity of money. Therefore, if rates are at an all-time high today, 4.5% and Powell is facing pressure to cut, the only way forward is most likely upward. We are currently at a very critical juncture in the stock market, cryptocurrency market, real estate market, etc.
In the US, rate cuts are more imminent than ever before. Jerome Powell is under tremendous pressure to act immediately, but he has been dragging his feet. The United States of America is the only developed country that has not been lowering rates. People are becoming increasingly irritated, particularly with certain politicians like Donald Trump, who has been harshly criticizing Jerome Powell as a result.
Here's the thing, though, isn't it? Jerome Powell will have to lower rates very soon, regardless of how long he takes. either the conclusion of this year or the beginning of 2026 will mark. I think there will be a significant number of rate reductions if the world's greatest economy will begin printing maybe hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars as a result of the possible price action that follows.
So it doesn't really matter if it occurs in the next 3 months or four to 5 months will be enormous. In the event that it occurs and it replicates earlier historical examples, the markets will go completely crazy and yes, that includes XRP. I am therefore getting ready for this. Everyone should, in my opinion, be getting ready for this.
And Shamath does a fantastic job of outlining how he believes it will happen very soon. He talks about reaching the greatest all-time highs in history, which I believe is backed up by a ton of data, which is also included in today's video. Press the like button. Thus, this film is viewed by all members of the XRP army.
Now, let's hear Trouth's side of the story. If I were a betting man, which I am, I believe that you might make a lot of money right now with this free money trade. Why does money go at that speed? What is this then? The M2 money supply is this. It serves as a gauge for the amount of money in circulation within the economy.
This demonstrates the effect of interest rates which allowed us to begin slowing down and reducing the money supply. However, you saw that money began to return to the system as the economy stabilized and individuals began to anticipate what was feasible in 18 to 24 months. That's fantastic as a portion of this capital is invested in ventures that have the potential to yield higher money market returns.
Well, where does it go from here? You could ask. Take a look at the amount of money in money market funds. This begins to demonstrate that you have dry powder on the sidelines worth trillions and trillions of dollars that must be found a home. As a result, you could observe that this item was aggressively rerated.
After that, the question is, do you manage your risk shorts and other things or simply say, you know what, I'm going to take it all up, take off most of my shorts, and let it go. If Powell embarks on a vigorous cutting campaign, I believe it will be either out of necessity or an attempt to maintain his employment.
The SNP might be seen reaching 7,000 very shortly. Guy therefore if rates are at an all-time high today, 4.5% and Powell is facing pressure to cut, the only way forward is most likely upward. An overwhelming amount of economic data has been released. The first quarter's GDP print was negative by 0 5%.
How after all could anyone interpret for Q1? Therefore, how could anyone at the Fed or in the Fed's media coverage fail to recognize that? In addition, as I mentioned earlier, we discussed the likelihood of a negative GDP print in Q1 and that we would likely print a three handle on GDP in Q2. Thus, it has been known to us for months.
In essence, we have been making accurate predictions. Why then is it so difficult to just examine the data and state the obvious truth? Whatever you may think of Trump, it doesn't really matter in my opinion. The current rates shouldn't exist. They ought to drop by 50 to 100 basis points for a period.
It's classified September. It is scheduled for September. It has no rational explanation. There is a political and subjective reason. He said, "Let's just push it out to month or 2 months. Get some more data and then we'll cut it in September." I believe he was just after the tariff issue. What distinguishes one septet from another?
A cut in September or July or August? In the course of history, it is unlikely to have any significance. However, there is more justification for cutting if you oppose the tariffs and subscribe to the doom narratives of Larry Summers or Jim Kramer. Does there exist a poly market regarding Powell's replacement?
Nick, does it provide any information regarding Powell's replacement? He will make the announcement. I believe he will simply make the announcement. It will also create Bessum. Besson appears to be popular. He has the sensation of a steady hand. He believes he has experience. It will undoubtedly be Besson.
Who is most likely to be the next head of the Federal Reserve? It's Besson, I believe. Let's get started. Well, there it is. Waller Chris. Just 14% for Besson. That's probably where you sleep. Listen, there are 1 2 3 4 5 and six individuals with 14 to 22%. At 14%, this is a Bessins only. Yes, I do agree.
It appears low. The resources at age 18. I mean, I know both Bessan and Hassan well, and they are both excellent. I work with both of them. Wouldn't they both be fantastic? Both of them have a great deal of experience and time spent playing the game, which is what you want. Has a long history in the game.
He has a thorough understanding of how markets operate. Yes. Mean is do you think this is an instance of plucking sacks or trimeth? You have a bench. Do you wish to remove Basant from his current position where he is performing well? Believe that Basant is destroying a treasury. I would really like to keep him on staff.
That I believe is the choice. There are some intriguing ramifications in my opinion to Waller's elevation. Worsh capable of executing the work and is quite consumate, you know. So, does Trump think he's a more traditional Republican or does he think he's MAGA? We apologize. We overlooked another name on the list.
Trump or Musk? Oh, there's an opportunity there. Oh, I see. We'll see. All right, let's raise those figures then. Those are the numbers of a rookie. You're able to earn 99.8. Believe that if something else occurs, I'm a member of a cascade. Although there is some light-heartedness over the next Fed share, it is still very significant.
If you know Chamoth is correct, then this conversation is even taking place. Furthermore, Jerome Powell's actions are political in nature and wholly unfounded in logic, which makes perfect sense when you take Europe into account. Every developed country, including China, the UK, and Canada, is essentially lowering its rates.
Why doesn't the United States do it? Well, Jerome Powell wouldn't do that for a couple reasons. The first is political. He is attempting to discredit Trump. In a way, he is attempting to increase the credibility of Democrats. That is a possibility, but it's a little odd that Trump is suddenly disparaging Powell after having appointed him back in I think 2017 or 2018.
That is definitely one of the more peculiar things, you know. But hear me out. After considering all of that, we need to consider the ramifications of this. The likelihood of a rate drop in September appears to be very strong. Billions of dollars will be released into the market in September if there is a 25 basis cut.
There could be hundreds of billions more dollars released into the market if there is another 50 basis decrease perhaps in October, November or December. Indeed, the 12week lag has had a significant effect on the price of XRP and other digital assets in the past. And in my opinion, XRP is currently the altcoin with the strongest position in November to
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