저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
노동시장은 정상화 중이며 고용 증가(월 15~20만)와 임금 상승으로 소비가 유지된다고 봄. 인플레이션은 2%로 빠르게 내려오는 중. 나스닥 횡보에 대해 90년대 말과의 유사성을 언급하며 시장이 신고가를 향해 점진적으로 오르고 있다고 평가. AI 성장 스토리는 실재한다고 보며 S&P500 주당순이익을 2024년 250, 2025년 270, 2026년 300, 연말 2030년대 초까지 400으로 전망. 재정적자는 장기 문제이나 정치적 해법이 나올 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
For more on markets and this week's key inflation data . Ed Yardeni joins us. He is the president of Yardeni Research. Ed, it 's great to see you. Thank you. Good morning, Ed. Looking at the big picture from above. It seems that the job market may be starting to relax a little. This would likely be favorable for the Fed's proposed action.
Inflation is also under control. How do you feel about it? Optimistic about all these things? In fact, yes. I see what is happening in the labor market as a normalization . I think everyone is looking at the data and saying that they are weakening. They are only weakening in relation to some pandemic data points we had one or two years ago.
The fact is that most indicators suggest we 've returned to a fairly normal labor market, where jobs are increasing by 150,000 to 200,000 per month. Wages continue to rise, outpacing consumer price inflation , and consumers have the purchasing power to continue spending, which is what drives the economy.
Are you surprised to see the NASDAQ almost stagnating, or at least not necessarily... Do you see any signs of trouble there? Well, you know, we've both been in this for a while, and I think we lived through the '90s experience. So there's a bit of déjà vu when looking at the market and comparing it to what happened in the late '90s.
I think the way I would describe things is that we're on a gradual rise. The market, over the past few weeks, has continued to climb towards new all-time highs, and it has done so despite disappointing economic indicators, because I think investors have concluded that we shouldn't worry too much about an economic slowdown or even a recession, because if that were to become a significant risk, the Fed would act quickly to lower interest rates.
I don't think the Fed needs to lower interest rates, but it seems they are prepared to do so if necessary. I think we'll start receiving earnings results by the end of this week and then be immersed in it for the next two weeks. Do you have any earnings estimates for the S&P over the next 12 months or so?
And what kind of multiple would you need to reach the current level of the S&P? Yes, I believe we're going to reach $250 per share this year. That's an increase from $225 per share last year. I think next year we'll reach $270 per share, and then $300. By the end of the decade, I think we could be looking at $400 per share.
Look, I think Becky just did a really excellent interview with the director of Corning. And that simply proved that the AI story is legitimate. There are many companies that are benefiting from AI. Not everything will be as magical as advertised, but much of it will be. And I hope that during the second quarter many companies will give us specific examples of how AI is starting to make a difference in their productivity and cost reduction.
Having said all that, Ed, do you spend sleepless nights worrying about how much money we owe, how much the federal government owes right now ? I worry about that during the day. At night, I usually sleep quite well. Melatonin. Look, we've been at this for a while, and anyone who's been around for a while can remember that the deficit has been a long-standing issue of settling accounts, and the settling of accounts just keeps getting postponed.
So I'm still in the group that thinks it's a problem. You know, I'm usually optimistic, but I can't sugarcoat this reality. I guess my way of thinking is...that the day of reckoning will come. And when that day comes, there will be a political solution. It is a problem created by men and women. It's not that we can't at some point devise a program that, over a period of 10 years, reduces spending or the rate of growth of spending relative to taxes, and taxes have increased somewhat.
But for now, Janet Yellen has found a very simple way to calm bond watchdogs, and that is: whenever they worry about too much supply of bonds and notes, she simply says, " Okay, we'll do more in bills," and that calms the bond market. Furthermore, the inflation figures have been excellent and I think they are coming down to 2% here quite quickly, and that too, I think, will reassure the bond market.
Yes, I think we need higher inflation so that future debt payments will be lower. That 's a very interesting point. They keep issuing more and more banknotes when they can't get the promissory notes, right? That's how it is. We've been doing that for a while . Exact.
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