Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard Marks (book review) - Chapter 2

요약 보기

Howard Marks의 『Mastering the Market Cycle』 2장 '시장 주기의 본질'을 소개하는 독서 리뷰 영상이다. 종목·자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없다. 핵심 개념: 주기는 진자(pendulum) 운동으로 시각화되며, 고점과 저점이 반복된다. 진자를 기울여 돌리면 장기 추세선(secular trend)이 생기며, 역사는 반복되지 않지만 운율(rhyme)이 맞는다는 마크 트웨인 인용이 설명된다. 인과성: 주기의 각 단계는 단순 순서가 아니라 다음 단계를 일으킨다. 과열 후 중력(평균회귀)이 커지면 조정이 시작되는 식이다. 변곡점(C, E, G, I)에서 시장은 적정가치를 넘어 과도하게 움직이며, 인간 심리(공포와 과열)가 이를 증폭한다. 성공적 투자자는 이 변곡점을 이해해야 한다. 경험: 한 주기는 수십 년이 걸려 직업 생애 동안 약 두 번의 강세장과 약세장만 겪게 되므로, 역사 공부가 필수다. 영상 결론: 다음 3장에서 역사적 사건을 다룰 예정이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. some Rhythm or something that looks akin to this as Mark Twain's quote he illustrates history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme welcome back for chapter two of our reading series we are reading mastering the market cycle by Howard marks for those of you who don't know who Howard Marx is how much is one of the founders of oak tree Capital based out in California and they have a very good track record as being one of the top distressed assets investment firms private Equity hedge fund a really successful Financial Services business all right so what is in store for chapter two chapter two is titled the nature of Cycles without going into too much detail quick overview this is where the author starts describing a bit more what he deems as a cycle how he visualizes a cycle why that's important he introduces secular cycles and the importance of that as well so without further Ado let's switch up the camera angle the nature of Cycles so I think let's begin by talking about the way Howard visualizes a cycle and how he uses a pendulum to think about a cycle so a pendulum is something where you have you have essentially a something that goes like this and then you're going to have a line and then at the end of the line you can have like a little weight and this is going to be able to swing backwards and forwards so if I had to take here and I had to pull this pendulum it would swing you'll be able to swing on this plane so just facing a pendulum forward you're going to get emotion like that the ball is going to travel along this plane and it's going to have a peak and a trough on either side but to get closer to what a market cycle looks like he says what if you take this pendulum and you you'd flip it you flip it like this so we're not going to be able to see too much definition here maybe it's a little lopsided but now the ball is gonna The Arc is gonna be able The Arc is gonna be over here so the pendulum is going to be able to swing backwards and forwards and again we have our Peaks Troth and a peak so what if we take our pendulum and we tilt it and we pick it up and we drop it but instead of just letting it drop we we let the swing move having another access so having have another axis here and so we we pick it up and we let it we let it swing and then we drag it along we drag it along in this direction so then we're gonna get we're gonna get something like this starting to form right now what if we go even one step further what if we keep it at an angle right I'm going a little a little far here a bit I'll leave it like that yeah um so we've got time and some sort of um some sort of value here usually in our case it's probably going to be price so when Howard marks uses the verbiage the pendulum swings to the other direction it means he's referring to these Peaks and troughs that can be derived from taking a pendulum and tilting it so this is how I believe Howard marks visualizes a pendulum and this is also what you think of as a cycle you've got a trough a peak and then another trough another peak in a trough but then there's another there's another idea there is a an average a mean let's start using a different color for this we have a mean and this is referred to as a secular trend so in the short term we could have these pendulum swings up and down so here we could be saying we are in an uptrend here we could be saying we are in a down trend but there's also a secular trend which can in this case would be a a secular uptrend this gives you there's something funny that powered marks often refers to is a quote by Mark twine and that goes roughly as far roughly as history so this is a very simplified way we know in reality that very few markets will make such a symmetrical trend lines there's there's probably going to be some Rhythm or something that looks akin to this as Mark Twain's quote he illustrates history doesn't repeat itself but it does Rhyme meaning that things could look similar but it's not never going to look exactly the same again so that is something important also to note with with Cycles okay the next concept that Howard starts to introduce is this idea of causality I think it can be problematic to think too much in terms of cause and effect but if protected with the right limitations and parameters thinking in causality is is fine anyways so he he States the events in the life of a cycle shouldn't be viewed merely as each being followed by the next but much more importantly as each causing the next alright so let's get back to our and the charts here okay so as we've previously seen a cycle looks something like this with a secular Trend running through it so we can Define or we can look at Cycles in different phases you could say phase a B okay that's a lot of phases but essentially a seems to be this upward this upward trend and then B is this kind of pivotal Point there's like a pivot here where momentum is lost and slowed down and we pivot and go back into a downward Direction and similarly we here we have another Pivot Point where things turn around again and start moving in an upward Direction so those are very important to look at another thing that's very important to look at is to think of this as the proper value or level and this Delta here as noise or deviants from the norm or deviance from the the proper value so what is an investor to do with these values well these are very important values to to know so not only do we have these different phases in a cycle those phases are very important so so I'm going to say Point C e g and I so see e G and I these are what's called inflection points this is when the market goes beyond so you would think that in a rational Market once we extend the market overextends and pulls back and it comes back down to the to the norm to the proper level you'd think it would stay there and be rational but it doesn't it overshoots and pulls further to the Other Extreme so these inflection points are very dependable in in how it marks his opinion and are very critical for a good investor to understand because what happens is the market extends itself and he explains it as the market gains more weight and so it reaches a point where essentially Gravity the momentum upwards is less than what the grab what the pull is the gravity pull towards the mean is and it'll start pulling that weight back down and as it sheds weight then it becomes light enough to where the momentum induced by the the mean can then start pulling it upwards again and in that way we have this gaining of weight and shedding of weight right so this gaining and shedding of weight is kind of where this causality starts coming in in his view in that because the market had overextended itself and the gravity gained weight that in of itself is what what starts to cause the movement pulling it pulling it back down so B actually causes C now another important thing is then The Human Condition human behavior so at points c e at these inflection points here as we start moving down people start becoming irrational and they don't realize that hey we've actually reached a mean Point we've actually reached the proper value they will get fearful so here we've got in this direction we have fear and in this direction we've got exuberance to the Reds I hope I'm finding that right we've got this Dynamic of fear and exuberance working as well and in Howard Marx's opinion the successful investor understands these inflection points very well and is able to make their investment decisions very very well okay all right last concept that I want to cover is experience so experience Howard moist makes brings up this very critical point in experience so these Cycles they can take decades so from here to here this could be 20 years so in time this could be about 20 years so a year in 20 years you've only gone through essentially one bear Market foreign and that's very very critical if you think about most people work from their mid-20s to their mid 60s well that's about that's about 40 Years of of working so so that's about 40 years so most people will only go through about two bear markets and two bull markets in their whole career in finance foreign it's very difficult to you need you need to go through bear markets and bull markets in order to gain experience but they just come around so very slowly so it's very important because markets take this long you must study history because otherwise you can't gain a lot of experience by just waiting to go through these bull markets and bear markets and that's also why it's very good that you're here listening to this video and watching this video because we're going to go through historical events as well all right that is it for today all right uh thank you so much for um sticking around and watching that video I hope you learned something from it yeah stay tuned for uh chapter three