저자: BrentColeman · 외국인
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버핏은 위대한 기업이라고 확신하면 주가가 다소 비싸도 시장 폭락을 기다릴 필요가 없다고 주장. 장기 보유와 가격 타이밍 시도의 위험을 강조하며, 기업 자체를 소유권 관점으로 보라고 조언. 해설자는 엔비디아·테슬라 같은 종목을 과거 기회로 언급하며 지금도 숨은 기회가 있다고 말함. 구체적 현재 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey guys today we're going to be watching a little piece from the 1996 Berkshire heatherway conference from Warren Buffett he'll be answering the question should you wait for a market crash to buy stocks so in this video I'm going to show you the video and give a bit of commentary on what my thoughts are so hope you enjoy it let's get into it now well I I won't comment on the three companies that you've named but in in general terms unless you find the the prices of a great company really offensive if you if you feel you've identified it and by definition great company is one that's going to remain great for 30 years if it's going to be great a great company for 3 years you know it ain't a great company Warren buffer emphasizes that if you've identified a truly great company when you believe will remain successful for decades to come the current price should not be a major deterrent unless it's outrageously High a great company is one with a durable competitive Advantage excellent management and a proven track record of consistent growth these companies don't become great by accident they're the kinds of businesses that the test of time and continue to thrive even when the economy or the market takes a hit Buffett's key message here is that waiting for a better price or a market crash to buy these companies is often unnecessary if the company is as exceptional as you believe its value will grow over time making the price you pay today much less important in the long run let's be honest how often do you see people waiting for companies like apple to go on clearance never happens right it's the same thing with stocks and with investing don't let the price tag scare your way from quality I mean it uh so you really want to go along with the U the idea of something that if you were going to take a trip for 20 years you wouldn't feel bad leaving leaving uh the money and with no orders with your broker and no power of attorney or anything and you just go on the trip and you know you come back and it's going to be a terribly strong company uh I think it's better just to own them Buffett uses a vivid analogy here to emphasize the importance of investing in companies with long-term resilience and stability if for example you left your stocks alone for 20 years without buying or selling do you think the company will be stronger than it is today this means looking for companies with strong fundamentals consistent earnings growth a durable competitive Advantage as we mentioned before exceptional management and a product or service that people continue to need or want for decades one of his biggest Investments is Apple carrying on our example from before and over the past couple decades they've dominated the consumer electronics business and they've only become larger and more powerful these are businesses that can wether Market volatility industry changes and even economic recessions I mean you know we could uh we could attempt to buy and sell some of the things that that we own that we think are fine businesses but they're too hard to find I mean we we found Seas candy in 1972 where we find here and there we get the opportunity to do something but they're too hard to find so to to sit there and hope that you buy them in the in the throws of some Panic uh you know that You' sort of take the attitude of a of uh a mortician you know waiting for a flu epidemic or something I mean it it I'm not sure that that uh I'm not sure that's just will be a great technique I mean it may be great if you inherit you know Paul Getty inherited the money at the bottom in 32 I mean he didn't inherit exactly he talked to his mother out of it but but it's it's true actually close enough yeah close enough right but he uh he benefited enormously by by having access to a lot of cash in 19 in the early 30s that he didn't have access to in the in the late 20s and so you can get some accidents like that uh but that's that's a lot to count on and Buffett highlights just how rare great companies are finding them is already a significant challenge waiting for them to become cheap during Market panics or downturns or recessions that kind of thing is even harder and often impractical the idea of timing the market perfectly whether during a crash or a panic is not a realistic or sustainable investment strategy he is essentially saying don't over complicate it waiting for a perfect moment like a market crash to swoop in and buy great companies at a bargain is risky and usually ends up with you doing nothing for example a year ago nobody was saying that the S&P 500 was going to grow like we've seen we don't know what's going to happen even the market commentators a year ago were wrong you might have heard this saying before time in the market not timing the market that's basically what Warren Buffett here is advocating for you know if you start with the Dow X and you're and you think it's too high you know when it goes to 90% of X you buy well if it does and it goes to 50 % of X it gets uh uh you know you you never get the benefit of those extremes anyway unless you just come into some accidental some of money at some time so I I I think the main thing to do is find wonderful businesses that uh is is Phil Kay here the we got the world yeah there there's what there's there's the the hero of investing Phil would you stand up Phil is Phil is uh 99 he wrote a book on investing in 1924 Fell's done awfully well by by by finding businesses he likes and sticking with them and and not worrying too much about what they do day to day there's going to be an I I think there's going to be an article in the Wall Street Journal about Phil on May 28th and I I advise you all to read it you'll probably learn a lot more of them by coming to this meeting Buffett stresses that attempting to predict the exact bottom of the market is foolish and near impossible so he's continuing on from what he was saying earlier market prices fluctuate unpredictably and trying to wait for the perfect low often results in missed opportunities even if you succeed in timing one bottom there is no guarantee you'll be able to repeat it so consistently instead he advises focusing on the long-term value of Investments for beginner investors this means the smartest approach is to consistently invest over time regardless of the market conditions by doing this you're taking advantage of a strategy called dollar cost averaging we smooth out the ups and downs and build your portfolio steadily but it it's that approach of buying businesses I mean let's just say there was no stock market and the owner of the best business in whatever your hometown is came to came to you and said look it you know it uh my brother just died and he owned 20% of the business and and I want somebody to to go in with me uh to buy that 20% and price looks a little high maybe but but this what I think I can get for it you know do you want to buy in you know I think if you like the if you like the business and you like the person who's coming to you and the price sounds reasonable and you really know the business I I think probably the thing to do is to take it and don't worry about how it's quoted it won't be quoted tomorrow or next week or next month uh I think people's investment would be more intelligent if it you know stocks were quoted about once a year but it isn't going to happen that way so uh and if you happened to come into some U some added money when at some time when something dramatic has happened I mean we did well back in 1964 because American Express ran into a crook you know we did well in 1976 because Geico uh Geico's managers and Auditors didn't know what the loss Reserve should have been the previous couple of years so Buffett urges investors to think of stocks as ownership in real businesses rather than just prices on a screen prices on a screen is a bit like gambling whereas if you understand stocks as a representation of a real business you might look at the business instead and then make your judgment call as he said if companies were only quoted once a year investing would be a lot more intelligent without constant noise of whether a company sorts stock price rise or fall each day the investment decision would solely rely on understanding the company itself things like its strength its potential to grow and ability to generate profits over the long term it's like getting to know someone outside of social media instead of focusing on likes and followers you instead get to know someone or in this case a company so we've had our share of flu epidemics but uh you don't want to spend your life waiting around for him to round out the video he's basically saying to not wait around for Boxing Day sales when you could have bought everything months prior without the stress so if you're looking to start investing there is no time like the present to find some gems it doesn't matter what time of the year it is there's always a hidden opportunity in the market it's just about finding it if we fast forward 5 years we'll look back on this time and think that company was really cheap I know I certainly do with the likes of Tesla and Nvidia if I'd found those gems all the way back 5 years ago you know I'd be a lot richer than what I am now if you want to see more videos from Buffett with my commentary make sure to check out these links which should be appearing somewhere over here thanks for watching don't forget to subscribe and I look forward to catching you on the next one cheers
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