저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
시장 모멘텀이 약화되고 투자심리가 식어 기술주 전반이 하락 추세로 전환될 위험이 크다는 주장. 반도체 투자심리가 급격히 하락 전환 중이며 20일선 이탈 가능성이 높아짐. 테슬라는 중요 분기점에 있어 지지선 이탈 시 단기 하락 가능성, 시장보다 강한 저점 상승을 보이는 점은 긍정적. 마이크로소프트·엔비디아는 시장과 유사하게 약세 흐름, 구글은 상대적으로 견조. 유가는 저점 확인 후 상승 정렬, 달러는 국내 상황상 안정 흐름 예상. 코스피·코스닥은 미국보다 강한 하락세로 추가 하락 가능성, 지수 레버리지 투자는 위험하다고 경고. 연말까지 신중 대응 권고.
다듬은 글
failed to maintain its upward trend for two consecutive days, and yesterday, it showed signs of heading slightly downward. The reason I haven't been viewing the market favorably recently is that the momentum is gradually weakening. What I mean is, while the market is shifting toward a downward trend, we should n't just look at auxiliary indicators; the key factor we need to observe in the market is sentiment.
Those who bought at that time likely did so thinking it would go up further. However, looking at the subsequent correction, those who bought at lower price levels did not sell at a higher price, but rather at a lower price than before. This implies that market sentiment itself has died. If another correction occurred after that, right?
Those who entered thinking it had become cheap couldn't hold on for long, failed to rise further, and saw the trend bottom and top break. This means that there are now many people who believe the current price is too high. In other words, the reason I emphasize this inverse arrangement is that investor sentiment is not as hot as it used to be.
Therefore, regarding buying and holding, we... I am saying that we need to be cautious. As you can see from the past week's performance, support emerged because people thought the price had dropped, leading to a rise. However, the fact that it failed to move when it should have and is showing such sluggishness here suggests that investor sentiment itself is somewhat frozen compared to before.
So, when the price moves to a lower level again, we need to observe whether there will be more people looking to buy at a lower price than before, or if there will be more people willing to buy at a higher price, even if it is a bit more expensive. That is precisely what investment sentiment is, and I am pointing out that these aspects are now being revealed technically.
Also, regarding what subscribers seem to be misunderstanding: when I tell you not to rush or to invest more seriously, I do not mean that you must adopt the exact same approach as me. You understand what I mean, right? You might take a view of holding for the long term, or you might take a cautious view like me.
Everyone's views can differ, but I am telling you not to be sarcastic or—how should I put it—force your own view on others too hastily just because their opinion differs from mine. I make YouTube videos because I have my own view, and I have no intention of denying the other person's perspective. I am simply conveying my arguments logically, based on the evidence I possess.
Therefore, I do not engage in such behavior simply because our views differ. If someone acknowledges that our views may differ and politely explains, "From my perspective, I hold a different view for such and such reasons," I believe I have responded quite proactively. I am saying this with the hope that you will change that attitude.
I hope there is no misunderstanding. Now, as sentiment within the Nasdaq has cooled somewhat, tech stocks as a whole are in a position where a decline could occur as they establish a downward trend. In particular, as you can see, investor sentiment for semiconductor stocks is rapidly turning downward, so the possibility of a downward breakout below the 20-day moving average is increasing.
If it does break below the 20-day moving average, the probability of a correction for tech stocks will naturally increase. This is because such a decline affects investor sentiment, so it could lead to a rapid downward movement. If it hits and investor sentiment strengthens with many people thinking it is cheap, then we can aim for a transition to an uptrend.
So, the view I am suggesting is that we should wait a little until then. Therefore, we need to observe the market until the perception that it is cheap is combined with the sentiment that "I should buy even if it is a bit more expensive." Now, looking at Tesla, which I emphasized in today's title, from that perspective, investor sentiment is currently in a stage where it is consolidating.
As you can see, there is the willingness to buy at a higher price, right? But there is no courage to sell at a higher price; in other words, the market is moving in a situation where sentiment is consolidating. However, the current negative factor is that if the overall market trends downward, there is a high possibility that Tesla's investor sentiment will also head down.
Then we can identify that Tesla is moving toward a major turning point, and if the support line breaks down slightly, there is a possibility that investor sentiment will head down in the short term. So, you can see at a glance that this is a very important zone. Therefore, in this zone, we should not hastily increase our position or...
Rather than placing a full position as if on a bet, if you are planning to hold for the long term, you can establish an investment strategy in advance where you will buy when a support line—that is, a downward line—appears. If you are a short-term day trader, for a stock like Tesla, you can approach it by setting a stop-loss or profit-taking line near the trend line.
Therefore, you can respond according to your individual investment concept, and I would appreciate it if you could incorporate my video into that concept. Regardless of your investment concept, the fact that the stock is currently in a zone where sentiment is clashing significantly suggests that the trend is moving in that direction.
So, regarding how you will manage your future response accordingly, especially with a stock like Tesla, since it is solidly raising its lows despite the market falling and collapsing, I suggest you watch it with the mindset that it is a stock showing signs of trying to overcome the market downturn. Therefore, Tesla is currently in a key position, and I would advise that it would be safer to confirm its direction and formulate a new strategy.
Now, let's take a look at other stocks as well. Conversely, like Microsoft... In this case, unlike Tesla, the lows are getting lower, meaning it is moving in a trend similar to the market. Similarly, Nvidia is also moving in a trend where the highs themselves are getting lower. So, as you look at the stocks you each have an investment concept for, consider how you will approach them.
Conversely, in the case of Google, similar to Tesla, its trend has not collapsed yet; this means Google is showing a more solid trend due to some positive news. As for Apple, the lows are moving similarly to the market. In other words, you can identify that there are stocks that beat the market and stocks that follow the market.
That is what I am saying. Although I disclose individual stocks through the membership, I am also making an effort to find stocks that beat the market. And indeed, there have been decent gains recently. So, I am targeting those areas, and I hope you also adopt that investment concept, observe the market a bit, and respond safely.
As for oil prices, they have hit a low point and are forming a wave-like positive alignment. As for the dollar, considering the domestic situation, a trend of stabilization is expected to emerge to some extent. While it is possible, we need to understand that, fundamentally, the market is in the process of moving in an upward trend.
If you look at the KOSPI and KOSDAQ, they are actually showing a stronger downward trend, leading the market slightly more than the US market indices. In other words, because they have broken the trend and hit a deeper slump, it remains to be seen whether a rebound will occur to this extent. Furthermore, given that US stocks are currently at the beginning of a correction phase unable to move further up or down, there is still a possibility that Korean stocks could collapse further.
Therefore, those investing in domestic stocks need to prepare for the possibility that the trend could fall for a long period. Looking at the KOSDAQ, since the 20-day moving average has already been breached, I would say you can identify that the intensity of the downward trend is stronger than that of the US market.
Consequently, if you are engaging in index trading, you should be aware that now is not a good time to invest index-wise—specifically, if you are using triple leverage to trade tech stocks or targeting stocks like TQN or SOXL—you must understand that you are not currently in a safe position. I think it would be good for you to be aware of this.
Conversely, since these are individual stocks, if it is difficult to target sectors or trade inverse ETFs, I would say that the time has come to select stocks that are still moving in a positive direction despite the current situation. So, in today's video, I wanted to convey that we are currently in a key position.
In any case, since the market itself is not in great shape right now, I would like to emphasize that we need to respond carefully throughout the year-end. With that, I will wrap up today's video. If you found this video helpful, please subscribe and like, and please share it with those around you. Thank you.
댓글 0