저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio는 AI 주식 버블이 1929년·2000년 버블과 유사한 메커니즘을 보인다고 진단하며, 부채 확대·부의 불평등·지정학적 패권 이동을 80년 대주기 후반의 특징으로 제시한다. 개인에게는 현금 대신 분산투자를 권하고, 금을 인플레이션 헤지의 핵심으로 꼽으며 비트코인은 자산의 약 1% 수준의 소액만 권장한다. 직업적으로는 AI를 활용하는 능력과 감정·직관 기반의 가치 창출이 중요하다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Best Partners, I’m Da Fei. The current hottest AI sector in the capital market might be retracing the path of the 1929 Great Depression and the 2000 dot-com bubble. At the same time, the global order is at an eighty-year turning point. This is the judgment made by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.
Just a few days ago, on the CEO Diary podcast, he had a deep one-and-a-half-hour conversation with host Steven Bartlett, discussing bubbles, great cycles, and how ordinary people should secure their wealth and careers in these turbulent times. In today's video, we will follow Dalio's logic to discuss these issues.
Viewers familiar with finance should be no stranger to Dalio. In 1975, he founded Bridgewater in his two-bedroom apartment and later turned it into the world's largest hedge fund. Over the decades, Bridgewater has generated approximately $ 53 billion in cumulative returns for investors, with an annualized return of around 12%, and has never suffered a major loss.
What people marvel at most is 2008, when the S&P 500 fell by nearly 40%and many funds were wiped out, yet Bridgewater achieved a 9.5%positive return. This ability to survive and make money in extreme market environments makes every public statement by Dalio highly scrutinized by the market. In the interview, the host opened with a very sharp question.
He mentioned a previous talk with another Wall Street legend, Jeremy Grantham, who stated that this is the biggest investment bubble in US history, and AI is leading a new bubble burst. Dalio's answer was direct; he said Grantham is right, as we are already seeing typical bubble characteristics, which affect the economy and are harmful to society, eventually causing everyone to lose money.
However, he didn't rush to a conclusion, instead saying he wants to clarify the logic behind how this conclusion is reached. Because at this stage in his life, he prefers to help people understand the cause-and-effect relationships behind things. So, how exactly are bubbles formed? Dalio provided a mechanism he has observed for decades, saying the essence of a bubble is simple: prices rise significantly, company performance looks excellent, and then a crash occurs.
This effect continuously reinforces itself during the upward phase and works in reverse during the downward phase. Every time a revolutionary new technology emerges, investors get overly excited, ignore the price itself, and even borrow money to enter the market. You should be familiar with this scene; it was like this in the 1999 internet era, and it was the same way before the Great Depression of 1929.
What happened in the late 1920s? Electricity entered households for the first time; people started using refrigerators and light bulbs at home, cars became common, airplanes emerged, and radio was invented. Everyone knew these things would be significant in the future, and they certainly were. But at the same time, people bought these stocks, and as prices rose, they borrowed money to buy more, believing it was a sure thing .
Yet there is a fatal flaw here. Daliao reminds us that wealth is not the same as money. You see many people becoming wealthy on paper, but you cannot directly spend wealth; you must sell assets for cash because you can only spend real money. This principle sounds simple, but those caught in a bubble often fail to realize it.
He gave a vivid example: a common scenario today is a company raising $ 50 million and being valued at $ 1 billion. In reality, only $ 50 million was invested in the company, but on the accounting books, the founder holds $ 1 billion in stock, making them a billionaire. But no one has actually ever paid $ 1 billion to buy these stocks.
You do hold these stocks in your hands, but you can't use stocks to pay your bills directly. When prices keep climbing, investors feel wealthier; asset values rise, collateral increases, and banks lend them more money. They use that money to buy more assets, prices rise further, and this cycle accelerates during the boom.
However, once a trigger occurs—most commonly a rise in interest rates, as overheating and inflation force central banks to hit the brakes—those in debt must pay more in interest or cash for taxes, forcing them to sell assets. Once selling begins, prices drop, collateral value shrinks, banks issue margin calls , and more people are forced to sell.
This process then runs in reverse. In the interview, the host gave a very intuitive example to help listeners understand: assume you bought a share in a large AI company, and due to market frenzy, that share is valued at $ 100. You take a $ 100 asset to the bank as collateral for a $ 50 loan, but then some economic shock occurs—be it war, policy shifts, or rising interest rates—and everyone holding these assets suddenly needs cash to pay off debts, triggering a fire sale.
By the time you want to sell, the price has plummeted to $ 25, but you still owe the bank $ 50; what was worth $ 100 a few months ago is now worth only $ 25. You’ve lost $ 75 and must sell immediately; as everyone sells, prices keep falling, people cut spending, restaurants close, trips are canceled, and decreased consumption leads to lower incomes for others, triggering an economic recession.
After listening, Dalio said you are absolutely correct, and that this outcome is inevitable. Dalio also highlighted a supply-side issue that many overlook, noting that almost nothing is easier to produce than stocks. When market demand is high , every company wants to raise funds by issuing shares—especially in the AI sector—where a massive influx of new stock supply acts as an accelerant, making the bubble expand even faster.
In reality, no one working in the industry can accurately predict exactly how much capital will flow in. You either invest too little and get left behind by competitors, or you place a massive bet; there is no way to precisely control the scale of investment, which is, in itself, the breeding ground for a bubble.
At this point, you might think this is just a typical tech bubble story, no different from any other in history, but what Dalio really means is that AI isn't an isolated event; it happens to coincide with a major turning point in a cycle he identified through 500 years of historical research. He argues that human society operates on a major cycle lasting about 80 years; the last one began in 1945 with the establishment of the world order following WWII, and we are now at the tail end of that cycle.
The late stage of this cycle has clear characteristics: first, excessive debt; governments carry massive deficits, and debt service costs squeeze out productive investments like education and infrastructure, causing productivity to decline. Dalio cited the UK as an example, noting that it has had six prime ministers in the past seven years, which is extremely rare for a mature democracy.
The root cause is that the government lacks sufficient funds. It cannot solve the problem by raising taxes because the wealthy will leave high-tax areas, nor can it easily cut welfare because the public won't accept it, making political gridlock inevitable. He says when you watch these prime ministers come and go, it looks like political infighting, but essentially, there just isn't enough money to fulfill promises, so whoever takes office cannot solve the problem.
The second characteristic is an irreconcilable wealth gap. While the capitalist system can indeed boost productivity, it naturally leads to the concentration of wealth. You only need to look at corporate income distribution to see that the share allocated to laborers has been declining, while the share allocated to capital owners, or shareholders, has been rising.
The top 10%of households in the United States hold nearly 90%of the stocks; this economic structural imbalance will inevitably project onto the political landscape. When the economy is on a downturn, the left and the right begin to attack each other, the power of the center fades, compromise becomes almost impossible, and the social foundation faces the risk of collapse.
Dalio says, "When the government is short on funds and people start attacking each other, you know that this cycle has reached its late stage." The third characteristic is the shift in the external geopolitical order. Dalio’s observation is that when there is a dominant power, it imposes its own order, and the world is relatively peaceful.
But when power begins to shift and there are disputes over the direction of affairs, these disputes often evolve into conflicts. He bluntly states that the United States is currently in a stage of decline, and the fragility of its execution is becoming apparent. In the past, a slight hint from the U.S.
would lead other countries to follow suit, but that power no longer exists today. Mentioning the Red Sea crisis and the situation in the Middle East, the U.S. is deeply mired, unable to easily withdraw or sustain it long-term, which reminds him of Britain's situation during the Suez Crisis—a hallmark of Britain falling from its position as a global hegemon.
On the other hand, China has become a larger trading partner than the U.S. for most countries, signaling a substantial shift in the world order. Hearing this, you might ask, with these three forces combined, what should we, as ordinary people, actually do? How should we protect our assets and plan our careers ?
Dalio's advice in this regard is very specific and runs counter to many people's intuition. Starting with asset allocation, Dalio says the most dangerous illusion for ordinary people is thinking that keeping money in the bank is the safest option. He explicitly states that it is not. Cash is not absolutely safe; in the long run , due to inflation, it is actually the worst investment.
I did the math: if the annual inflation rate stays between 3.5%and 4%, even with the same interest returns, your purchasing power is constantly shrinking after taxes. You can do the math yourself—3.5% inflation means your money will be worth half in 20 years, and that's not even counting taxes. So, what should you do?
Dalio's answer is to return to the most basic principle of asset allocation: diversification. He says diversification means holding a range of assets with low correlation to each other. When balanced, you can reduce risk without sacrificing returns— it’s one of the few free lunches in investing. He laid out several asset classes on the table, including stocks, cash, gold, bonds, real estate, and Bitcoin.
Different assets perform differently across economic cycles, and a sensible mix improves your ability to withstand uncertainty. Among these assets, Dalio specifically emphasized the value of gold, saying it’s fascinating because it’s the only financial asset that isn't someone else's liability. What does that mean?
The money in your bank is essentially a liability the bank owes you; the bonds you buy are promises from the issuer; even paper currency is a liability backed by national credit. But gold isn't a promise; it just is. Dalio says that during times of conflict, gold offers a physical security that other digital or credit assets don't.
He cited Russia's sanctions, where many of their overseas assets were frozen, but their gold wasn't taken because gold is physical—if you hold it, no one can take it away. He also noted that although gold stopped being used directly as currency in 1971, it remains the world's second-largest reserve asset held by central banks, and for good reason.
In his view, an average person’s portfolio should have about 5%to 15%allocated to inflation hedges. Within this portion, he prefers gold over Bitcoin. Speaking of Bitcoin, Dalio says it makes up about 1%of his own investment portfolio . He acknowledges Bitcoin’s attribute as a non-printable currency, which is similar to gold, but he remains highly cautious about the risks involved.
First is regulatory risk; when a government decides they don't want it, they have the power to do anything— monitor transactions, impose taxes, or even ban it entirely. Next is the technical risk: if quantum computing reaches a certain level of development, Bitcoin's encryption system could theoretically be cracked.
One point is crucial: central banks around the world will not hold large amounts of Bitcoin, but they have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. Dalio's stance is clear: it's fine to allocate a little bit, but do not treat it as your primary hedging tool. Regarding the previous question, the host shifted the topic to career and personal development, which is likely what many young viewers care about most.
Dalio didn't give specific advice like learning to code or joining AI-related industries; instead, he elevated the perspective to evolutionary theory, quoting Darwin: the most successful species are not the smartest, but the most adaptable to their environment. This statement carries particular weight in the context of today's technological revolution.
He said when you look back at human technological development, the tractor replaced a massive amount of physical labor; now, AI is replacing human work at the level of thinking and reasoning. AI agents and robots are about to replace mental and physical labor on a large scale; this trend is certain.
He mentioned that a CEO once told him that about 9 million food delivery riders worldwide could be replaced by self-driving cars and delivery robots. The careers of 9 million drivers might cease to exist in a relatively short period of time. So, in such an environment, what kind of people can thrive?
Dalio's assessment is that you must become one of the few who are proficient in using AI, placing you in that leading group—roughly a few percent to 10%of the population. If you are engaged in purely thinking-based work—the kind of cognitive labor that can be replaced by algorithms and models—the risk of you being replaced is real.
It is real, but he immediately added that humanity's final bastion of value lies in emotions and intuition, in the subtle connections and judgment between people . We need to maximize our cognitive abilities and learn how to use AI as a lever to amplify our own capabilities, rather than competing head-to-head with AI in things it excels at.
Dalio also made a very interesting point: he said that for the skill of driving, earning money as a billionaire's chauffeur is far more lucrative than driving for a ride-hailing service. The skill itself may not differ much, but the context in which you apply it, the people you serve, and the systems you integrate with determine the vast difference in its value.
This essentially means you can't just bury your head in honing skills; you must also think about how to place yourself in high-value networks and positions. He suggests young people take personality tests, such as Principles, which he helped develop, to truly understand where their talents and nature lie.
He says you cannot accurately predict whether the future will need more programmers or lawyers. The cycles of industry rise and fall are becoming shorter; the hot track you bet on now might already be cold by the time you graduate. What you really need to cultivate is a lifestyle that generates universal awareness and adaptability.
If you can invest 10%more effort into improving this cognitive ability, you might see double or even higher returns in the long run. You should seek the intersection of your nature and your life path, doing what you are truly good at and passionate about, but never ignore money and financial security.
Don't let work be just for survival, and don't just talk about passion without considering survival. At this point, Dalio brings the topic back to a more macro level. He says these personal choices are all embedded in the background of that great cycle. He studied the history of the past 500 years and found that when an empire reaches the end of its cycle, it is often accompanied by monetary system turmoil, domestic order restructuring, or even war.
He says the U.S. political system is now showing clear signs of dysfunction. It's not just the UK having six prime ministers in a short time; political polarization in the U.S. is also becoming severe, with almost no room for cooperation between the two parties. Internationally, the future world may no longer be dominated by a single superpower, but rather move toward regionalization, forming different interest blocs.
Each country's future status depends on how they govern themselves—whether they become more efficient and cohesive, or are exhausted by internal conflicts. For entrepreneurs and investors, Dalio’s advice is not to limit yourself to a narrow place, but to possess a global vision. He used an old Chinese saying: "A rabbit has three burrows." He says in an era of extremely high risk, flexibility is the primary rule for survival.
You need to maintain a certain redundancy and resilience in geography, assets, and skills; do not place all your bets on one place, one system, or one path. Finally, Dalio offered a concluding remark, saying his insights might sound like they have a fatalistic calmness, but he is not being bearish or spreading panic.
History does not happen randomly; it follows a deep underlying logic. Whether it is a tech bubble fueled by AI or an eighty-year cycle of shifting orders, these are essentially periodic reflections of collective human behavior. After a lifetime of investing , his deepest insight is that understanding these principles— maintaining cognitive clarity, balancing asset allocation, and keeping personal adaptability—is the fundamental key to not only surviving the tides but thriving in them. Thank you for watching, and see you next time .
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