저자: JeremyGrantham인용-발언자소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜담 인용으로 현재 미국 증시 밸류에이션이 2000년 닷컴, 2008년 직전과 유사한 버블 수준이라고 주장. 쉴러 PE가 2000년 약 31, 2008년 약 27 대비 현재 2000년 수준이라 언급. 윌셔5000 지표 기준 과열 신호 제시. AI 붐이 닷컴과 유사한 패턴으로 버블 붕괴 가능성 경고. 금 등 실물자산 수요 증가와 외국인 매도(2024~2025 약 3.2조/6만 원대 언급 불명확) 언급. 인도 Nifty는 2023 급등 이후 갭 존재, 하락 시 기회라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham recently warned of the biggest falls. From Serious Majors, This Is the Highest Price Market in the History of the Stock Market, US, if you go back and look at the second, third, and fourth price markets, looking back 1929, 1972 And Jeremy Gram's perspective on this bubble bus is very interesting.
Something 1929 This Market Goal Historical Future From a Historian Look But right now everything is going well. US market is at all time high. All the stocks are trading at all time highs. After all, why do they think that there could be a big fall in the market, for this we will have to dig into the history.
And 200 right the P went to a new all-time high in January 98 then just 21 27 29 31 33 35 35 change 35 late charge much 80% dot bubble of 2000 everyone will know about this correction. What was its region made of ? At this time there was an internet revolution. Everyone wanted to leave the library and become a part of the internet world because all the knowledge was easily available there.
Everyone participated in the market. One could easily buy and sell there and this is what you would call a market bubble. Where you feel that our country is moving towards growth. We can easily access everything. And that becomes the region of the bubble bus. Because any market experiences an extraordinary stretch when the number of participants increases.
Like you saw in After Covid India in 2020. Now let us understand the crash of 2008. 100 years going up and down, three years market up and then three years down, let us understand what this means. The real estate sector started its upmove in 2004 and reached its peak by 2007. After that I started dipping and fell by 2011.
Japan's market is about as high as it's been three years since the 2008 crash. This market recently reached a 50% historical low. Why was this market even bigger than the fall 2000 dot bubble? Let me explain the matrix to you. The theory by which Grantham understands the market. Number one Shiller PE ratio.
The Shiller PE ratio is the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the average profit over the last 10 years. It is divided by that and there may be some ups and downs in between. This is the same formula that I taught you to launch the next range in the Indian market. There is a hint of it in the previous video.
Let's move ahead. So you can see on the screen that at the time of dot bubble in 2000, the PE ratio was around 31. At the time of the 2008 housing crisis, it was around 27. If you see today, the PE ratio is equal to 2000. That is why Grandtham says that a bubble is forming in the market. This could go bust and the reason for this is AI somewhere.
We will understand this further. Additionally, the Will Shire 5000 indicator shows us a signal of an even more severe decline. Which is the inflation you are seeing today. If you compare it with 2000, at that time it was around 100% and at the time of 2008 bubble it was around 104% and if you talk about the current scenario it is above 200.
Why is there so much inflation in the market ? What does Grantham have to say about this? Wonderful idea actually money and give you from the biggest bubbles and AI will change the world but some people say that with the arrival of AI a new revolution is coming in the market. There will be growth in the market.
The profits of many companies will increase. Work that takes days will start getting done in hours. That will increase the market value. This happens all the time. Dot came in 2000. Technic I. The market reacted in the opposite direction. The same thing happened before the housing crisis in 2008. Now it is becoming an AI bubble.
You may get its impact in the future because first the grid comes into the market. Seeing this growth, many new investors will get trapped in high pay and after that the bubble will burst and when this fall starts, the big companies are the first to surrender. Amazon 92% market 92% Internet life changing idea 1929% What I So what is understood from this is that in 2000 and 2008, when the crash was coming, at that time all the technology companies were rising and the rest of the market was falling.
Similarly, it is possible that after the advent of AI, the work performance of many companies may increase and AI related companies may grow again because of AI. The rest had an impact on the overall market. I really on the I will change significantly Technology Lots and lots of money Seen you must have noticed recently the price of gold has increased a lot.
The price of silver has increased a lot and the exit plan of FIS from the market has started from 2024 itself and you must have seen that in 2025 also FIS withdrew its money worth around ₹60000 and in 2024 it has already withdrawn around ₹32000. They are also aware of this bubble and that is why they are exiting their market.
You might have seen recently that a lot of gold has been brought back to India. US is buying silver. Other countries are also trying to buy gold and silver. Because only physical assets are useful during recession when the market crashes. Grantham says that investment opportunities can be found in many markets outside the US.
He is undervalued right now. Gap Between Growth US Close All Time Revisited So let's see how our market takes this decline. If we plot our Nifty chart on an example yearly time frame, what do you see? The market made an extraordinary stretch to the upside later in 2021. In the 2023 boom, the market has left gaps that you do not see in historical data.
It is possible that the market may try to reach the clues left by it for the downside and yes, decline is an opportunity for the investor. So you should look at it from that angle. If you are new to the channel, please like, share and subscribe. Thank you so much for watching. Bye-by take care. Hmm.
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