저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주택시장 매물 증가와 금리 상승으로 인한 수요 감소로 집값이 올해 말까지 0~5% 하락할 가능성이 크고, 최악의 경우 -10~-25%까지 하락 가능. 신규 매물(Redfin 데이터)과 신규주택 판매 쇼크가 선행지표. 대규모 압류 위기는 아니라고 봄. 매도 비용(7~10%)을 고려하면 지금 매도는 비추천이며, 매수 시점은 방향성이 확인된 이후로 봄.
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we've got to talk about the housing market because we've got some massive problems a little bit of good news but some massive problems and some cracks that are showing and in this video i'm going to show you some things you probably haven't seen before so let's talk about what's going on with the housing market and then potentially try to understand why it's happening and maybe cast out how long do we think this pain could potentially last for the housing market when would it begin first of all then when we actually think it's going to end and where the opportunities to buy or sell or refinance real estate let's get into that right now quick not link down below including an amazing course on do that's a phenomenal course for helping out with liability saving thousands of dollars we've got a partnership with lowe's for home improvement gets you a lot better pricing so check that out link down below of course if you're an agent i think it's a great time to become an agent link down below got a course for real estate investing if you've never thought about investing in real estate before zero to millionaire real estate investing i'll link down below you can even bundle these together there's a coupon expiring at the end of this month and we'll have our largest price increase ever after that when prices start going up also do deal analysis in our zero to millionaire course so if you submit a real estate deal for analysis because you've gone into escrow i'll personally take a look at that and give you my sincere opinion of your deals so take a look at that link down below okay folks so the first thing that we've really got to pay attention to with real estate has to of course do with inventory because we know that inventory is at substantially low levels but what we're concerned about is the potential fear okay this is very hard to quantify but this will make or break the real estate market and so that's why i'm going to start with this the thing that you have to be concerned about is people who own real estate getting fearful that prices are going to come down and then deciding to sell their real estate that is the most important distinction now when people hear that they think oh but wait a minute kevin but if you sell then you have to rebuy wrong if you're a homeowner and you sell you could rent also you don't have to be a homeowner to sell you could be an institutional owner of real estate or you could be an investor in real estate and we don't need a hundred percent of people decide do we want to sell or not what we really only need is maybe an additional 1 million homes or maybe an extra 10 percent of homes to sell and all of a sudden you have a completely different inventory dynamic than you previously did so one of the first and in my opinion most important leading indicators of pain coming to the real estate market is what's happening with new listings now this is market by market i'm going to show you where you can look this up this is very early so we're not going to get crystal clear data yet but you want to pay attention to what i call inflection points in the real estate market you could do this with your local mls by talking to your real estate agent or you could just use the redfin data center just know that the redfin data center is about two to three weeks delayed so if you want accurate week by week information you should talk to your agent about this but take a look at this you go to redfin data center at first glance you don't really notice anything scary because if you go to new listings you don't notice anything that is breaking trend and what you should do when you look at this trend is you should uncheck the 2020 box because we want to compare to 2021 19 and 2022.
there's there's too much noise in 2020 and that makes sense but where what you want to be watchful of is when you start seeing stuff like this go to a hot market like austin texas very hot real estate market austin labeled the number one place to live in america by multiple different magazines people flocking there from california a lot of really incredible bullishness on austin what do you notice here an above trend break in new listings and this is something that we should be concerned about in terms of starting to pay attention to because this is a four week line which means it's kind of like a moving average it's not an exponential moving average it's a four-week moving average which means for you to break trend this substantially on a four-week smoothed out line your latest data points have to be substantially higher and that is a trend that you want to start paying attention to when you start seeing these new listings in various different cities break trend break trend break trend break trend that's when you start getting concerned this is not happening broadly yet but you're starting to see some of the inflection points and again it's a four week moving average so it really is going to take some time but it's one of the first things that we want to start paying attention to what's another leading indicator for problems in the real estate market ah yes well another very popular leading indicator are new home sales new home sales are really unique because new home sales are tracked based on when homes go under contract whereas regular resale homes are tracked when they close so that actually means if you want to get more recent data about the state of the market now you look at new home sales and let me show you the estimates for new home sales from the prior from from the prior month we were expecting to get somewhere around 750 000 new home sales this chart you're gonna see right here is the spread of expectations for new home sales so when i hide myself here this shows you that right here this was sort of the average estimate that new home sales were going to come in at 750 000.
some people thought it was going to come in at say 7.65 some people thought closer to 700 000 in new home sales but everybody was pretty convinced that we were going to be somewhere over here you can see the bell curve right here of estimate puts us somewhere about 745 000 right look at where new home sales actually came in and this is absolutely mind-blowing and i do want to say because i see the question yes my programs on real estate do help internationally as well 90 of the content applies you'll have to make some adjustments for taxes and loan types but the real principles of building wealth are going to apply to all markets especially in terms of like how to renovate and things like that now take a look at this this is scary this is like oh crap this is where new home sales actually came in way over there at 588 000 nobody was freaking close it's such a bad freaking miss that you literally have the analyst writing yesterday we saw a horrendous new home sales number nowhere near expectations and at uh at the number the lowest reading since april of 2020 this may be the beginning of a trend okay we need to talk about that we need to talk about april of 2020 but i need to give you a quick reminder that if you want to with public make sure to go to metkevin.com public we'll have a link in the description and down below public is a company that does not use a payment for order flow when you sign up and deposit any amount you can now get up to a thousand dollars in a totally free stock just for signing up public is a social platform where you could actually follow me on public as well and see commentary from either myself or other individuals i'm meet kevin on public but make sure most importantly first and foremost you go to med cabin.com public sign up and get yourself up to a thousand dollars of totally free stock and remember no payment for order flow they don't sell your data and they provide a lot of neat information and it's a great and really easy app to use check them out they even do crypto med kevin.com public okay let's go back for a moment to not that to this right here okay also not that one of these buttons there we go let's go here so when we talk about this being the worst since april of 2020 why was april of 2020 so bad well april of 2020 was uniquely interesting because everybody we locked down and everybody had a substantial fear that the real estate market was going to face a wave of foreclosures and that the market was going to crash that did not end up happening because we ended up getting mortgage forbearances and people were essentially able to not make payments on their homes for up to 18 months take that extra money add it to the back of their existing loan and then potentially refinance the other the entire loan from a 30-year mortgage to a 40-year mortgage which means you have actually lowered your payments now foreclosures are a big concern and this is where a lot of folks ask me kevin are we going to see a wave of foreclosures like we had in 2008 i believe the answer to that is no that's because the average credit score of a buyer in 2008 was 670.
the average credit score of a buyer today is a hundred points higher in the range of 770 that makes it much more clear that the people buying homes today are your wealthier demographic and we know that wealthier demographics right now actually hold substantially more cash and therefore more purchasing power and more of a buffer than the lower income demographics that we that we have you can see on screen here top 20 percent of substantially more household income than the bottom 80 percent of individuals it's also worth noting that the typical net worth of a homeowner is somewhere in the neighborhood of a hundred seventy to a hundred eighty thousand dollars the typical net worth of a renter is about five thousand dollars so first of all that should be a hint to you that you should absolutely get into home ownership definitely al estate link down below if you're clueless as to how to even get started real estate or maybe you know a lot about real estate and you're like okay maybe i can learn more you can will we see a foreclosure crisis though the answer in my opinion here is a solid no i don't believe we're going to see a substantial foreclosure crisis and foreclosures even though they're up from year over year numbers where we had a foreclosure moratorium and this is why you have to be careful about foreclosure click bait that we see online it's people like oh my gosh so many more foreclosures than last year well yeah well we had none last year we're still at about half of the levels of foreclosures now than we had prior to the pandemic the reason for this is thanks to the ability to repay rules and dodd-frank regulations it's very difficult now to qualify for a home and generally it's the higher income demographics who are qualifying for homes those are the people with more cash and who are more resilient to inflation because they have assets now does that mean that real estate prices are going to keep going up well my opinion not necessarily just because we are not necessarily going to have a wave of foreclosures does not mean that in my opinion we are going to see the real estate market get out of this economic slowdown scot-free in fact lowe's gave us a little bit of insight into their research they told us that they believe we have at the moment or or at the first quarter of the year we have somewhere between 20 to 28 percent excess demand uh for homes that is the opinion of lows and it could be anywhere in that range interest rates have gone up about three percent for the average buyer since the lows that we had maybe somewhere between two and a half now because interest rates have slightly ticked down again a little bit but we think that as soon as the federal reserve starts their reasury yields increase even more than we have previously and we could end up having those six percent mortgage rates again quantitative tightening starts june 1st of 2022 and i wouldn't be surprised to see the 10-year treasury rise once we actually start having waves of tightening and we're not going to have our most severe tightening until three months after june which is actually september 1st that's when we're going to start seeing our more severe tightening where we're really tightening to the tune of 95 billion dollars a month but anyway every one percent that mortgage rates go up we know that buyer purchasing power goes down by about 10 well if interest rates have gone up two and a half to three percent then that means all of this excess demand in the range of negative 20 to negative 30 percent is probably going to weigh and eliminate all of the excess demand so maybe where now at these higher rates we actually have a stable market or a market where prices might be prone to come down about say five percent right roughly in the middle here making an estimate maybe that means prices come down at the end of the year by about five percent well that's nominal that's not a reason to sell right and it's also difficult to refinance right now because rates have gone up so high probably a better thing to do is getting like a home equity line of credit because those are usually variable interest rates and so when rates come back down those will come down again which i suppose you could do with like a larger refinance as well if you wanted access to capital but in my opinion now is not time the time to buy the time to buy is once we figure out what direction the real estate market is going to go in i personally think best case scenario we're somewhere between a zero to negative five percent decline by the end of the year because of excess demand getting crushed via interest rates solely however folks what is and and well let me finish also the thought that should you sell probably not because it's going to cost you somewhere between 7 to 10 percent to sell that's because you've got real estate commissions of between four and five percent you've got escrow and title fees of somewhere about one and a half percent you're probably going to set aside one to two percent in repairs you're gonna have vacancy costs uh all that stuff adds up to about seven percent in selling costs so like selling real estate is expensive like if you have to pay a tenant to get out that adds to the cost as well all that stuff is expensive so like if you're selling real estate you're giving up seven to ten percent so probably not a good thing to sell if you only think prices are gonna come down zero to five percent do we think they're going to come down 40 no like no i don't think we're gonna see a 2008 again because we have a different quality of borrower so what is the the the thing that changes everything well it's this right here it's what we started with it's inventory if inventories like if excess demand has been eradicated because of rates but then inventories skyrocket problems that's when you get actual problems and that's in my opinion where you could see a real estate decline uh anywhere in the range of negative 10 to negative 25 that's my expectation somewhere in that range nowhere near that 08 level this would really like 25 this would really take a panic of like tucker carlson going oh my gosh real estate's plummeting this that whatever investors starting to dump trying to like sell at the top or whatever right that's that 25 fear that 10 is probably in my opinion my base case scenario that we're going to see about a 10 percent sell sell down which means if you sell costs you 10 to sell you you kind of like broke even right uh depending on of course when you sell so those are my thoughts for the coming real estate crash and if you want to dialogue with me or me look at your deal or kind of talk about that those real estate ones and do remember that i think there's a high likelihood of inventory being the driver of these moves so pay attention to that inventory statistic watch what the 10-year treasury does when we start seeing the tightening cycle and you're going to know a whole lot more about what's coming to the real estate market my thoughts thanks for watching alright what
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