저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리의 현 하락장이 과거 1970년대급으로 더 심각할 수 있다는 해설 영상이다. 결론: 인플레이션은 둔화되지만 통화속도 반등으로 2차 인플레이션 가능성이 있고, 배리는 하락이 아직 끝나지 않았다고 본다. 거시 경로: 1970년대는 주가 20개월간 절반 하락, 실업률 급등, 물가 고공행진이 10년간 지속됐다. 현재 CPI는 전년 대비 6.5%로 둔화 중이다. 유동성 프레임: 물컵 비유로 연준의 양적긴축이 M2를 줄이지만, 2023년 6~12월 이후 2024년까지 통화속도(velocity)가 늘면 1970년대 후반처럼 인플레가 재상승할 수 있다는 주장이다. 배리 포지션: 2021년 가을 버블 정점에서 보유분을 전량 매도했다는 주장이 제시된다. 2001년 말 그래프의 원을 근거로 시장이 25~35% 추가 하락할 것으로 보는 해석이 나온다. 현재 숏은 하지 않으며, 인플레 정점 통과를 강세 신호로 본다. 버블 비교: 2021년 대규모 IPO, 무가치 암호화폐 등이 닷컴버블과 유사하다. 엔론·월드컴식 회계사기 가능성도 언급된다. 대안 자산: 금은 통화 헤지로 유리하며, 암호화폐 논란이 확산되면 금이 수혜를 볼 것이라 본다. 홍콩 증시: 밸류에이션이 PER 7배 수준으로 극단적 저평가이며, 경제 성장률 전망은 3.3%로 상향됐다. 미국 주식: 현금흐름수익률(FCF/시가총액)이 높은 우량 저평가 기업 매수가 유리하다. 배리 포트폴리오 내 가이드 그룹 비중은 약 37%다. 리스크: 물가 재반등, 연준 금리정책 변화, 암호화폐 신뢰 붕괴가 주요 변수다.
다듬은 글
living during the 1970s was a terrible experience the stock market was an utter disarray within 20 months it had decreased by half the rate of unemployment was soaring in addition prices were increasing at previously unheared off rates worst of all each of these problems persisted for a full 10 years Welcome to our Channel Finance experts because human behavior never changes everybody is aware that history replicates itself Brie has done a lot of research on the 1970s and is certain that some key trends from that era will repeat again as we all know inflation has started to slow down coming in at 6.5 percent year-over-year in its most recent month and as a result everyone believes that when we approach recession inflation will start to decline let's make it more simple picture the financial system as a glass of water the current state of the economy is represented as the water levels in the middle when the water level in the glass is close to the top there is thought to be active economic activity addition nationally a recession or depression could happen when the water level in the glass is at its lowest the water in the glass should preferably be visible from the middle to the top the widespread outbreak caused the water levels to reach the bottom of the glass the FED is now pumping water out of the glass to make up for This Disaster resulting in the water level reaching the bottom of the water glass theoretically this makes great sense the water covering the floor in its entirety symbolizes a threat that is going ignored money movement if you were to refill the water glass with the water that was overflown it would be full and have overflowed once again free clarified how nominal GDP over the money supply is what determines the velocity M2 is starting to decline as a result of quantitative tightening and increasing rates Rising velocity surpass the declining money supply in 1978 to 1979 to propel inflation ever higher despite the fat drying water out of the water glass the water on the floor will cause the glass to fill much more quickly than the FED is doing so the tub will fill up one again as a result of this now what is money velocity the pace at which every dollar is used on goods and services is known as the velocity of money since everyone is aware that we have entered a recession everybody is currently saving their cash people would resume purchasing Goods if prices were to finally start falling at a rapid rate the increased frequency of dollar transactions would increase the the velocity of money in that case a scary situation is present prices could begin accelerating once again if prices drop and money velocity increased the velocity of money would then produce a second wave of inflation as a result a similar incident occurred in the 1970s although the Fed was reducing the money supply the velocity of money was Rising so quickly that inflation increased once again to above 14 the possibility that the FED would abruptly resume money creation is another scenario that will render various essays even more terrifying for its critics that between June and December 2023 inflation is going to begin to slow down and perhaps turn negative the federal Resorts raising interest rates will be to blame for this the problem lies in the fact that until at least 2024 the velocity of money isn't going to begin to grow therefore the FED of the fiscal government are scheduled to review money Printing and when the velocity of money increases similar to what happened in the late 1970s this will signal the beginning of the subsequent inflationary rise although Breeze described how the inflation Peak occurred it is not the Cycle's final High Point by any measure the CPI in the U.S is set to decline and may even turn negative in 2023 a similar incident occurred in the 1970s and 1980s and is certain to take place once again some investors might believe that the FED isn't so stupid and is acting in all of our interests free though is aware that is untrue given their problematic task when the bubble peaked in the fall of 2021 Michael free said that the FED purposely sold off all of her Holdings never forget the fall of 2021 when fed Governors made the prescient Nostradamus decision that it was unlawful for them to keep on to trade and stocks themselves while there are certainly many similarities between this present State of Affairs and the 1970s.com bubble yet are also numerous differences the surprising amount of parallels between the.com bubble and the present we had a large number of IPOs in 2021 much like the com bubble similarly to internet stocks that had no foundations we too have Bubble cryptocurrency currencies that had no purpose other than to make money during the.com bubble there were a lot of frauds committed in schemes similar to those of Enron Worldcom and numerous other companies one of the biggest accounting scams from the.com boom is Worldcom in the summer of 2002 the controversy became public knowledge a lot of investors wanted to buy Worldcom State before the business was made public you know companies like Worldcom are still alive today they've simply not yet been made public in light of everything mentioned Bree believes that the crash has not yet ended before the market fell much further in late 2001 a circle appeared on the graph this suggests that Bree anticipates a further market decline of 25 to 35 percent free is not currently shorting the market this is due to the fact that short-term inflation has already peaked which is a bullish indication for the market at the moment free tweeted I've been six feet for a while I could have gone 1.7 meters in time I am not sure these messages clearly have nothing to do with very type Barry's true height is 1.7 meters or 5'7 he is making reference to the fact that he is currently fairly tall he has a greater number of lengthy positions than short positions in other words three is best buying assets that could perform well in this climate rather than shorting the market inflation and economic recession are issues we are now facing gold is a hedge against currencies like the dollar in these times many investors viewed cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a substitute for gold since they may be used as a store of wealth however given how poorly cryptocurrency is now performing free thinks that gold will be a good investment in the near future he described how he had long believed that the moment for gold will come when cryptocurrency controversies start to spread like a disease the majority of Hong Kong residents have doubts about the stock market if they consider it to be a dangerous investment Hong Kong residents are therefore more inclined to invest in alternative assets like bonds or real estate than the stock market as a result as compared to the U.S market the Hong Kong stock market is grossly undervalued coveted limitations have a significant impact on the Hong Kong economy but things are changing today according to a Bloomberg study experts now expect Hong Kong's economy to strengthen by 3.3 percent instead of the 2.7 percent predicted earlier the Hong Kong market for stocks or the Hong saying are both down significantly as this is taking place Hong Kong is currently trading at a 7 pde ratio as opposed to a 20 times priced earnings ratio in 1997.
the market is severely undervalued as seen by the Hong sayings evaluation ratios trading at such cheap prices however many of you could have reservations about the Hong Kong market thereby rendering the U.S market a possibility Barry has been acquiring U.S stocks with significant cash flow yields along with Hong Kong equities the cash flow yield of a corporation is to determined by dividing free cash flow by Equity value thus a firm can either have a cheap value strong cash flow or both in order to obtain a high cash flow yield these kinds of cash cows do quite well after the.com disaster Barry really thinks that there are more opportunities to acquire cash cows now than there were in 2002.
he outlined the differences between low price low cash flow Enterprises now and in the year 2000 buying firms with the four criteria of high cash flow cheap valuation largeet and a strong mode is essentially what varies do in a post-speculative world stocks with these trades are expected to do very well currently the guild group accounts for around 37 percent of Barry's portfolio thanks for being to the end of the video don't forget to like share subscribe and tell us what you think about this video Below in the comments section let's meet again with another useful video thank you thank you foreign
Comments 0