저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 우크라이나 전쟁은 경제전 성격이 강하며 Chamath는 통화 증발과 공조 유동성 공급으로 제재 피해를 상쇄 가능하다고 보지만 경기침체 진입 가능성은 높다고 본다. 거시 충격과 경기침체 전망: 에너지 가격이 50% 급등하면 항상 경기침체로 이어졌다는 과거 패턴을 제시하며 현재 경기침체 경계선에 있다고 주장. 다만 'We have only just begun'이라며 제재는 초기 단계라고 봄. 제재 구조: 미국·EU가 러시아 중앙은행 자산 약 6430억 달러 동결, 국부펀드 접근 차단, 에너지 부문 제외 러시아 은행 SWIFT 배제. 금융 인프라가 가장 중요한 글로벌 자산이라 제재가 군사개입 없이 경제전으로 충분히 강력하다고 평가. 달러·비트코인: 전쟁 초기 비트코인 급등 후 침공 전 수준으로 하락, 이후 추가 하락. 달러 인덱스(DXY)는 2년 이상 최고치. 미국 달러 자산·채권은 상대적으로 안전하다고 평가. 연준·금리: 연준은 이번 달부터 여러 차례 금리 인상 신호. 2월 인플레이션 7.9%(80년대 이후 최고), 0.25%p 인상 예상. 금리 인상이 인플레와 고용 악화를 동시에 부르는 스태그플레이션 가능성 언급 후 Chamath는 스태그플레이션은 부정하나 경기침체 접근은 인정. 원자재: 3가지 요인(인프라 파괴·공급 우려·제재)으로 상품가격 상승 전망. 원유·가스·기초금속·곡물 가격 급등 언급. 연금·주식: 러시아 주식은 MSCI 신흥국 지수의 2% 수준이라 연금 직접 노출은 미미. 엑손모빌·BP·쉘의 러시아 지분 헐값 매각, 러시아 노출 기업 주가 급락 언급. 정책 대응 전망: 중앙은행(연준·ECB·BOJ·BOC) 공조 유동성 공급으로 5조 달러 프린팅 가능성, 막대한 재정적자·부채 확대 불가피. 이란 핵협상으로 석유 공급 확보 필요성 제시. 출연자 관점: 전쟁 장기화 시 불확실성 확대, 러시아 피해가 가장 크지만 서방도 경제적 비용 불가피.
다듬은 글
billionaire venture capitalist shamas palihapidia warns that the russia ukraine war has a chilling undertone he believes this war differs from conventional war and that the impact it will have on investors crypto and pension funds will be immense this video highlights some of the ways this war will affect the economy and shed some light on the outlook investors worldwide should be aware of so stay tuned to your top tech and trades channel shamat said that we're not even at the beginning because we're at the beginning of the beginning we are now teetering towards a recession according to shamath what's interesting to note is that it's not always the case that the price of energy has risen by 50 percent in a recession but it's always the case that when energy prices spike by 50 percent we enter a recession the united states has launched sanctions aimed at russia's central bank the european union did the same thing the central bank of russia will be unable to convert 643 billion dollars in assets held in u.s dollars and euros into rubles as a result of the sanctions russia is also unable to access its national wealth fund which serves as an emergency sovereign wealth fund furthermore the us and the european union have announced that all russian banks will be shut off from swift with the exception of those involved in the energy sector swift is the world's largest network for initiating international payments one of the most severe economic acts that may be done is to exclude russia banks from swift prior to this the u.s and the european union had chosen a cautious approach to sanctioning russia because of the close economic ties between russia and the eu policymakers were hesitant to impose harsh sanctions on russia however in this fast-moving fight a complete ban on swift transactions for russian banks now appears to be a possibility due to the severity of the sanctions imposed on russia many are concerned that russian president vladimir putin doesn't have a way of exiting from the invasion without losing faith this implies that if he believes he has no other options he may lash out in in an unpredictable manner as a result it may be advantages for the us and its allies to de-escalate the conflict allowing putin to do so this is also known as daetan and it means that the west and russia may reach an agreement and ends a war but sanctions must first be enforced to push putin to de-escalate the conflict this in shama's opinion would be the ideal outcome um in the aperture of war memories are short in the sense that you know if you ratchet these things up very aggressively now all of a sudden something from even two weeks ago seems like a much much better place to be right and so that could be an off-ramp which is like you basically find a way to take a lot of pressure off these economic sanctions in return for tatant mean i don't know but i'm making this up i have no idea i think there's a lot of people there's a lot of chatter that historically economic sanctions aren't enough which is why you can't draw a very clear bright line between that and military intervention as well and i've and i as i thought about it this is why i think you can actually fight an economic battle and an economic conflict without it pulling you into a military one and the reason is actually because of what's happened in the last 40 or 50 years you know you have like the the most critical infrastructure in the world i think is the financial infrastructure whether we like it or not right because you know energy infrastructure tends to be more localized other forms of infrastructure are localized but the one real asset that is absolutely global and universal is the financial payments infrastructure and you know what has really happened is that you can really a country or an entity when you blacklist them from these organizations and these networks and so this is why i actually think people underestimate the severity of of economic sanctions if done correctly because they were afraid that such sanctions would force the eu economies to implode no measures to restrict russia's energy exports are presently in place as a result the economic impact of the currently announced sanctions will be minimal outside of russia and western companies with exposure to russia the economic consequences of the conflict will be felt most strongly in ukraine and russia both of which are expected to suffer severe recessions this year energy supply chain and trade shocks have afflicted the eu and will continue to do so another consequence is the already divisive worldwide shift to renewable energy resources however while the west is still participating in this economic war let's not forget that ukraine is still fighting a bloody military war against russia over one and a half million refugees have been fleeing their homes to poland hungary and other european countries putin has also sent a frightening message to the rest of the world implying that he is willing to go to nuclear war with the west if we act in ukraine with direct military force specifically he said that his actions would cause us consequences never experienced before in your history this serves as a chilling reminder of the 1962 cuban missile crisis between the united states of america and the soviet union chamas talked about how war has a good impact on the crypto market and the u.s dollar he stated that conventional wisdom is that the war in ukraine is the crypto boon we've all been waiting for and that the us dollar is on its last leg but in reality bitcoin and the us dollar are both winning right now when bitcoin falls other cryptos fall more when u.s assets fall other non-us denominated assets and currencies get smoked after the invasion bitcoin spiked but by the time shamass tweeted it had dropped back to pre-invasion levels and was continuing to plummet chamas is referring to the power of the us dollar when talking about u.s denominated assets holders of u.s government bonds will likewise have minimal danger of the us government defaulting on bond interest payments to put this in perspective u.s dollars account for over 58 of all foreign bank loans that is not the case with the russian national money the ruble has dropped 41 in 11 days since the ukraine conflict began as a result assets denominated in u.s dollars or valued in u.s dollars are fleeing to safety the rising level of the dxy index sometimes known as the dixie demonstrates this in only a few days the index has risen to its highest level in over two years shamas believes that the likelihood of a recession in the us is increasing but before we get into that we have to analyze the impact of ukraine's war on the global economy the fed is currently signaling that multiple interest rates hike will occur beginning this month if they need to change paths due to the economic effects of the war then perhaps these policies will reverse the conflict in ukraine will have three major effects on the global economy financial sanctions commodities prices and supply chain disruptions investors are concerned about the repercussions of the war and its aftermath particularly when it comes to pension assets however investing in an emerging economy like russia was already a small part of the market and it's now become much smaller pension funds are well diversified and will likely have little to no direct exposure to russian companies russian stocks account for only 2 percent of the msci emerging markets fund when asked about the possibility of pension funds losing value due to losses in the market value of russian enterprises shamath said that he does not see this as a problem he rejected the matter as a red herring implying that it was only a diversion the reason it's a red herring is that the global total market cap of all of these businesses is meaningfully different than the amount of total capex that these guys represent and inasmuch as you are going to take the equity values of certain of these companies to zero it's in the grand scheme of things not that much equity value in the last two years we learned what governments are willing to do when you have supply shots and demand shocks and what they do is they turn on the money printer and they create enormous amounts of stimulus okay and what we have now is a point where if these shocks are really really really meaningful globally i think you're going to see the federal reserve and the ecb and the bank of canada and the bank of japan step in in a very coordinated way to provide liquidity to these markets and i think what that has the byproduct of doing is blunting the economic consequences to everybody but the person who is sanctioned do you think that's inflationary as well no many large western companies with russian subsidy diaries have been quick to state their intention to sell off exxonmobil bp and shell have sold their russian energy stakes to a small group of buyers for probable rock bottom rates investors who own individual stocks with considerable russian exposure have seen their stock's values plummet recently for certain companies the fire of sale of the russian assets will lead to large losses in the short term that could cause a further crash in stock prices one key uncertainty is the extent of assistance china provides to russia in the face of economic sanctions china could be able to provide an alternate route for russia to undertake international commerce while this is improbable it does highlight the good potential of a hot war expanding from an economic to a military conflict i actually think we are at war but it's the most positive form of it in the sense that we are learning a different kind of warfare now if you think about how we used to fight up until basically uh the persian gulf war it was armaments and tanks and then that evolved in the middle east because we had to fight insurgents and you know urban terrorism in many ways right i think this is a way in which we are learning that there's a different kind of warfare as well which is fundamentally economic and so you know it may not take the same shape as drones and missiles and fire and guns and bullets but i think you would be foolish to make the mistake that we are now not at economic war with russia and at the end of the day the outcome is the same which is either they survive or they don't survive and everything we've done points to that we are willing to fight um and we are willing to put a lot of economic collateral um and chips on the field in order to win this battle so i think in that respect we are kind of at a war there's no amount of money that you can actually put on human life and so if we can avoid a military war i just think that there's just there's there's no red line on cost there and so if we end up running massive deficits and now we're at you know 150 250 300 of gdp uh i think that you know morally that's that is the right thing to do there's still more reason to consider expanding your precious metals exposure in your portfolio stock market closures were widespread in a number of nations following world war ii leaving stock investors unable to retrieve their cash due to real worries about the currency's worth money and credit were not commonly accepted by non-allied countries throughout the war analysts explained that losing a war usually results in a total loss of wealth and power and that movements of stock markets that remained open during the war years were largely influenced by how countries fared in key battles as these outcomes shifted the probability of victory or defeat for each side because the west is limiting the global impact of sanctions it is anticipated that the most serious effect of the war will be higher commodity prices commodity prices may rise as a result of three factors physical infrastructure destruction supply concerns and sanctions although the european union and u.s haven't imposed a ban on russian oil prices of oil gas base metals and grains have risen rapidly inflation for february was 7.9 percent which is the highest rate since the early 80s this is due to higher energy costs that are getting even worse from the ukraine conflict the fed expects to stick to their plan of a 0.25 interest rate raise such an increase is still relatively low and could lead to high inflation and unemployment at the same time also known as stagflation raising interest rates slows down inflation but in doing so it hampers growth due to decreased business investment while shamas disputes the idea of stagflation he does admit that we are approaching a recession we are now teetering towards a recession nick you should throw this thing that i sent to you guys before if you look back over the last 30 or 40 or 50 years and you look at every single period of when there has been a recession what's interesting to note is that it's not always been the case that the price of energy has risen by 50 in a recession but it is always the case that when energy prices spike by 50 we enter a recession we will contract as an economy the government will have to become more accommodating that is the price of this economic war that we have started and i think it's a just price because what's happening is not supportable i think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down and i think the simplest way to do it is for the government to step in and become a buffer and it will drive massive deficits it'll drive increasing amounts of debt but i think that is a simple way for us to make sure we put and ratchet the pressure and just to speak on this other point we have only just begun meaning just today as we started the pod uh biden came out with an incremental new set of sanctions on russian crude so we're not at the even in the beginning we're at the beginning of the beginning even though chamos believes we're in a tight situation he does see a solution to our problems let's just say that you know between the boj bank of canada ecb and the federal reserve we all just collectively printed five trillion dollars you can absorb many many years of russia's export loss now it does have some gnarly implications you know you probably have to work more closely for example with iran you have to get an iran nuclear deal done why so that we can get access to their oil right so it blunts the loss of the of the russian reserves as an example the resiliency of european leaders and the us has caught russia off guard we are at odds with one of the world's most powerful super powers in terms of economics although russia is facing the largest economic pain there's definitely going to be an economic cost to the west as well there will definitely be a great deal of uncertainty ahead and putin has shown that he is prepared to start a conflict in order to make his point regarding ukraine let me know what you think of the economic effects of the ukraine war comment down below if you enjoyed this video please thank you for watching and i'll see you in the next video you
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