저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 연초 대비 25% 이상 하락한 상황에서 Cathie Wood는 자율주행 로보택시 플랫폼이 2년 내 가동되면 테슬라 성장 재가속과 마진 급증이 나타날 것이라 주장. 과거 조정 후 반등 경험을 근거로 제시하며 단기 매수 기회로 봄. 다만 가격 하락 중 가이던스 우려와 가격 인하에 따른 마진 압박도 언급됨. S&P500 대비 테슬라 부진 수치(6개월 -20% vs +12.5%)와 52주 고점 대비 37% 괴리를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock is down by more all the people there in the background I think they must understand that and anybody should understand that you you're buying into stocks that can be very volatile the knives have been out as you've probably seen people coming up Morning Star Etc they've come after you but I would imagine your message to investors is we are investing in some companies that are going to Boom wildly and become 10xers and there's other companies that may go away because these are the high-tech AI Investments I I would imagine that is a got to be a clear message to to people watching and the people sitting behind you right there Kathy absolutely absolutely we're saying uh that if you get on the right side of change these companies will deliver super exponential growth what does that mean it means not only rapid growth sustained uh but an acceleration in growth for example Tesla uh it's going through a lull right now related to the cycle but when autonomous taxi Networks uh platforms kick in as we think they will within the next two years I will say uh then what we're talking about with Tesla is a reacceleration in growth and a huge increase in margins because robotaxi platforms are SAS models software as a service models uh we have a lot of stories like that in our portfolio Tesla St is down by more than 25% since the beginning of the year and so is this a good time to buy test the stock because all Tesla stock has to do is to go back to where it was 45 days before and hey you have a 25% increase on your investment um so the question of the r is everyone knows that Tesla stock is a little bit overvalued and everyone also knows by now that Tesla stock is down 25% so at what point so at what point does Tesla stock become too cheap to ignore an argument can be made that the shares which have fallen by almost 26% over the past 1 month have already reached a point where everyone is starting to absorve like hey Tesla stock is down 25% maybe I should just mind right now because hey like I said before all tesler stock has to do is to go back to where it was 45 days before and yeah I don't think a lot of people are going to you know let this opportunity just slide because this is a very good opportunity to make 25% in the very beginning of the year and with with any investment that can get you 25% return in no time there's also some risk associated with it there is a very decent chance that Tesla stock can maybe go down even 10% 10 to 15% from here or it might not go back 25% so what do you do then you wait until you find a better opportunity and you move on well it's as easy as that but since the electric vehicle makeer reported its queue for earnings on Jan 24th so we're talking about just the past two weeks Tesla stock has given up as much as 177% falling to a low of $175 and while Tesla stock has recovered a little since then reaching an alltime high of 194 there is still a 37% Gap from its 52 we high of $299 and this includes a 20% decline in 6 months while the S&P 500 Index is up 12.5% well in the past 6 months if you've hold down to a test stock it has your value has gone down by 20% and if you had just invested that money in S&P 500 Index well your money would have been up 12.5% so what do you do like even a very safe investment like S&P 500 Index could have gotten you 12.5% in the past 6 months if you ask me personally if you can get your investment up by 30% on a year-to-year basis you're doing fantastic so S&P 500 Index just gave you half of that so what do you do and as it stands currently Tesla stock is down 26% here today and for investors who are waiting for the dust to settle there are still plenty of reasons to expect Tesla stock to go higher the stock has gotten grossly oversold as a result of Tesla missing Q4 estimates on both earning and revenue I think it might also have to do something with the fact that Elon Musk said that 2024 is not going to be pretty great here for Tesla as well I mean in terms of sales it might be a very decent year but not a very great one and while Wall Street continues to focus on the company's pricing challenges and headwinds related to the demand this isn't the first time the pundits have proclaimed the death of EV transformation and called into question Tesla's leadership capabilities in the industry so Tesla's always bounced back in the past C and if just like and do that again and well hey you have a return of 25% on your investment Ark invest in Kathy would still remain pretty bullish on Tesla stock Tesla is going through a low right now related to the cycle Kathy would said on CNBC but when autonomous taxi networks platform kicks in as we think they will within the next couple of years then we're talking about with Tesla is a reacceleration in growth and a huge increase in margins well we should also know that Kathy would has jumped in and bought the dip and Tesla St as she has done Time and Time always so we'll see where this goes meanwhile V Bush Securities Dan IES who believes the Bears have it wrong added more Assurance to Tesla's stock we could not disagree more with the ultra negative Tesla narrative building in forming a black cloud over the stock Dan IES wrote to the investors and while the next few months are clearly a bit cloudy for the Tesla story and overall EV demand long-term our view is that by the end of the decade 20% of AOS will be EVS with with autonomous and FSD a reality and not a dream or an aspiration well eventually like 10 years later 15 years later everything will be autonomous and full self-driving will be a reality like if you look at back how technology was 20 years before and how it is now no one could have dreamed of it where technology is at today so similarly autonomous will self driving will be a reality and when that happens Tesla will be the one to cash in the big and at that point of time Tesla stock could maybe even triple from where it is right now but we don't invest in a period of 10 to 15 years we're not allward and buff it so yeah if you're looking for short-term grow yeah buying the tip especially when it is down 25% seems to be a very good option for me and insiding Tesla's downbeat earnings report Dan iives was unwavering in his support maintaining his by equivalent outperform rating with a 12-month price target of 315 well if that happens Tesla stock will go 50 % from now which would be a great return on investment like I said before anything more than 30% a year is is great for me because I almost double my money in less than 3 years it is great and from current levels dav's price Target assumes potential premium of almost 66% and to be sure there are still critical questions that Tesla must answer for the investors namely the outlook for margins after price Cuts in several markets now we should also know that Tesla had to make several price cuts for the number of sales that it did this year and also a lot of Revenue and the profit for Tesla came from the tax cards so we should see where Tesla would be without all that and this is where the company will need to show we need to show Revenue in high margin Services business such as its wholesale driving software which is pois to re-energize the company's profit margin and I think it's safe to say that right now Tesla is betting heavily on full self driving software which will be the birth of autonomous vehicle Evolution and is designed to automate Tesla vehicle so they can can operate without the without a driver behind the wheel and Tesla's full sell driving software is at level three automation conditional driving automation which means that a driver should be engaged at all time and however once FSD can navigate autonomously it will not only boost Tesla's profit margins it will be a profit Center for recurring revenues for Tesla throughout the company's ambition for robot taxes and essentially while the market is focused on the near-term head vins revealed in the queue for report it was noteworthy that the Tesla's management spent a significant amount of time discussing high margin Services the company's efforts to monetize its FSD feature by licensing the FSD software to other EV makers can become a lucrative business to re-energize the stock and essentially Tesla's current competitors may eventually become the company's partners
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