저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 2021년 강의에서 달러 기축통화 체제가 막대한 재정적자와 국채 발행 증가로 압박받으며, 중앙은행의 화폐 발행(화폐화)이 불가피해질 것이라고 진단한다. 핵심 주장 1: 국채 공급은 급증하는데 주요 매수자는 제한적이라 수요가 부족하고, 결국 더 많은 화폐화가 필요하다고 본다. 과거 1933년 루스벨트 평가절하 이후 자산가격이 상승한 사례를 근거로 든다. 핵심 주장 2: 제로금리와 대규모 유동성으로 실질금리가 약 150bp 하락했고, 그 결과 부(wealth)의 저장수단이 채권·현금에서 금 등 대체자산으로 이동하고 있다고 설명한다. 핵심 주장 3: 중국이 세계무역에서 미국보다 큰 비중을 차지하고, 중국 기업 IPO 비중이 40% 이상으로 자본이동이 중국으로 향하는 흐름을 제시한다. 역사적으로 신흥 제국이 금융시장을 키울 때 기축통화 지위가 위협받았다고 설명한다. 리스크: 재정 긴축(증세 또는 지출 삭감)은 제국 말기 내전 등 큰 갈등을 낳아왔다고 경고하며, 부의 격차 확대(1930~45년 이후 최대)와 포퓰리즘 확산을 사회 갈등 요인으로 꼽는다. 세 가지 구조적 변화: (1) 제로금리와 화폐·신용의 대규모 공급, (2) 포퓰리즘과 부의 격차, (3) 기존 강대국에 도전하는 신흥 강국의 부상. 이를 역사적 주기 분석(500년)으로 검증했다고 밝힌다. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 단기 가격 예측은 없으며, 장기적 통화·부 이동 구조에 대한 견해만 제시한다.
다듬은 글
let's go back to sort of basics for every individual for every company for every government over a period of time you have to earn more than you spend and you have a balance sheet there's an income statement and a balance sheet when one becomes a reserve currency others want to save in that and that gives one the exorbitant privilege of being able to borrow in that and to create debt and money because that's the thing and it also gives us powers like a lot of our sanctions come from the dollars being a reserve currency and so on however through history it has always happened that currencies are devalued or destroyed and in that cycle when it becomes unattractive to own bonds or debt instruments in that currency there's a supply demand problem because a bond is a promise to receive currency so what you are is when you own a bond you're long a lot of currency because that's what they promised to give you and they have the printing press and then there are shifts that happen who is accounting for world trade right now china counts a larger share of world trade than the united states for example so what we are doing is we are in a fiat monetary system in which we are running very large deficits that we are monetizing and that those deficits produce bonds that have to be sold when i look at the supply and demand for those bonds i know who the buyers are you know they're a limited number of really big buyers and so when look at their portfolios and so on calculate what that is there's not going to be enough demand for those bonds and there's going to be a need for more monetization of that debt and so the answer is yes we're producing a change in the storehold of wealth and you've seen it in the markets because just think of it in a mechanistic sense when there was that stimulation and the buying what the federal reserve did in terms of buying that assets there was not only the decline in real interest rates we had you know about 150 basis points declined in real rates and nominal rates down there so the discount rate was lower you also had a lot of liquidity which came in and the world now has an enormous amount of liquidity bidding for financial assets and so if you increase the supply bonds and you increase the amount of money bonds are going to be worth less relative to other things and you're seeing a shift in the store of the wealth and like the 1933 period when roosevelt did the same moves in 1933 you then saw assets rise because they're alternative storeholds of the wealth that's what we saw in terms of the liquidity move that we've happened in market also included in gold and so on and so that's how it looks to me in terms of the comparison we're now in a new era we're in the new era we are pressing the limits of that and that money at the end of the day whoever's accepting that reserve currency's got to believe in it and there are things that are going on and also let's just think about capital flows china is becoming an effective place to invest money uh something like 40 percent over 40 percent of the ipos are going to be chinese stocks on chinese markets and so on and capital flows work that way and history has shown us that when there's an empire an emerging empire they build the financial markets they build the financial system so amsterdam was the world's financial center during the empire when there was the dutch gilder london was the financial center in the british empire us we had new york and so we're seeing that merge all of that changes the supply and the demand that is threatening to the reserve currency status just imagine it's a state okay the state of connecticut the state of illinois and so on and you can't print the money that means you either have to raise taxes or cut spending and history is shown in these empires that that causes great conflicts because taxes raising taxes and or cutting spending has been all through these empires and i've studied i don't know how many over a long period of time the number one reason that you have civil wars so yes it's easy to say we have to earn more than we spend and so on but in this environment in this highly fragmented environment how are we going to get there what i decided uh to do i was doing the research for myself in bridgewater because i what i learned through my life is that all the surprises the big surprises and mistakes i made whenever they occurred were things that didn't happen in my lifetime before but happened before my lifetime like in 1971 i was clerking on the floor of the new york stock exchange august 15th i remember it very well nixon announces that money as we know it is not any longer going to exist and people wouldn't accept money dollars in europe and i went on the floor of the new york stock exchange where i'm clerking the next day and i thought there was a crisis and i thought the stock market was going to go down a lot and the stock market went up a lot and then i said okay well why and i studied history and i studied devaluations and i studied that the exact same thing happened on march 5th 1933 with roosevelt's move and i understood when you devalue you reflate and it has this positive effect on that so what's happened recently is that i've observed three big things that are going on that haven't happened in our lifetimes and that they're big big big things and so those three big things led me to want to study them in history and they are what's going on with money and credit as you get zero interest rate and everybody needs a lot more spending power the production of a lot of debt that is monetized and directed by the central government to the places they wanted to go because the capital markets won't get them there in that way that phenomenon came loud and clear through covid but it existed before and so that leads me to the supply and demand of money and credit and i realize who gets it and who doesn't get it drives not only the markets it drives our lives so that's one the second factor is the emergence of populism and the wealth gap so when donald trump got elected and there's a lot of populism around the world that didn't used to happen in developed countries in the same way and i decided to study the distribution the deciles so i took the bottom 60 percent of the population and i looked at those conditions and so on and i realized that the wealth gap today is the largest since it was in the 30s the monetary policy i'm talking about last time that happened zero interest rates a lot of monetization 1930 to 45 period the wealth gap and the conflicts that we're doing last time that happened 1930 to 45 period so that factor we're at each other's throats we have conflicts primarily over money and wealth and that defines tax policy so when we look into the new administration whatever that may be uh we're going to think about those policies i needed to put that in perspective and then the third is the rise of a great power to challenging an existing great power the world order that we're in began in 1945.
the united states won the war basically it accounted for 50 of the world's economy had 80 percent of the gold gold was money and so we built a dollar based and u.s us-based order and now we're in a position where the soviet union was never economically comparable rival they had nuclear power but not the same and so we're now seeing every day that rivalry and as you know like me me like you will go there and we know the people makes decisions and so on and so forth and so by being able to see that we perceive changes pertaining to that so those are the three factors of our lifetime which then said i need to go back and find out what determines a reserve currency and not so i went back 500 years because i needed the cycles it used to be the dutch empire the british empire and the american empire and that's what i did so the reason i wanted to share it was i'm now at a stage of my life i'm 71 and my notion at this moment and i'll do this for maybe a year or two more is to pass along the things that i found valuable to other people for them to take or leave as they like
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