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joining us this afternoon for a bull bear debate on tech dan ives of webbish securities and charlie babinskoy from aerial investments good afternoon guys good to see you both thanks for having us great to be here let's just set it up dan you you basically think you've been bullish on the tech sector but your broader point is that the results that are coming in from q2 sort of ratify your view yeah fundamentals if you look at earnings season i mean from microsoft and cloud to cyber security to stalwarts like apple and i think even you saw with palo alto last night i mean fundamentals holding up a lot better than fear and that's really our thesis is that ultimately this plays out there's going to be a bifurcation in tech but i still believe that this is ultimately a second half it's going to be tech stocks in the green especially with a lot of the bearishness out there that we're seeing we're going to talk more about palo alto in a second but but charlie broadly speaking is the pushback the notion that the market got over excited about the rate cycle slowing down and hence got too excited about tech well it's benefited tech has benefited from lots of tailwinds over the last two years broadly speaking tech stocks did very well with covet the pelotons the zooms of the world and have really benefited from historically unprecedented low interest rates low interest rates helped tech help growth much more than value stocks so now you know as buffett says when the tide goes out we see how who's been swimming naked and we got a lot of tech stocks that look kind of um unsuited here so they've had a lot of of tailwinds now we're starting to see how they're going to do in a normal environment what about the notion that we're in some sort of structural innovative cycle where really the the macro cyclicality is going to be meaningless in the grand scheme of of what technology brings to our lives and earnings so i'll take that one um people always say that about tech people whenever you're in the 70s or the 80s it's the mainframe computer that's going to change the world it's changes in transportation that's why tech stocks always trade for massive multiples and yet for the last 100 years value stocks have beaten growth by an average of about three percent why because everybody always wants to own the glamorous growing company and they don't like to own that steady stable cash flow company everybody has the dream of being the next facebook or the next apple and often that dream doesn't come true which is why value is outperformed growth by so much what do you say to that dan i mean people talk about the fed and who knows what powell will say on friday but bottom line eight and a half cpi is a long way from two and if we do have that long road ahead isn't there the chance that tech stumbles in the midst of it look i think there's gonna be names like zoom docusign some others that stumble and some of the work from homes but when i look at cloud we're still only 40 of the way through i mean i think it's a fourth industrial revolution that's playing out in cloud on cyber security you look at raqqa gibraltars like apple even going to iphone 14 cycle where we you know our checks coming at asia continue to be robust despite the macro so i think it just ultimately shows really what's going to be a bifurcation of tech you got to own the right names but i think right now in terms of sentiment it continues to be as negative as i've seen going back to on 2010 even despite some of the rally that we've seen over the last month that's interesting you know charlie some of the names that you mentioned that there were coveted beneficiaries right co peloton uh amazon netflix zoom i don't see a lot of enterprise names in there and i wonder if if your thesis extends to the possibility that we do get a drawdown in business investment where enterprise really becomes the locus of any weakness yeah very possible i mean i should be careful and say there are some tech names i think are reasonable valuations and will do fine oracle has a big enterprise business and they have a big hosting business that is reasonably priced at about 14 times earnings but um but a lot of these names just aren't fundamentally you have to go back to valuation and i know that's boring and i know a lot of growth investors hate to talk about valuation but it really does matter and we have a lot of technology names that have valuations that are unhinged from the fundamentals and the reason they've been able to survive in this world is because because we had negative real interest rates in a negative real interest rate world a dollar of earnings 10 years from now is just as valuable as a dollar of earnings next year that's gonna change
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