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it's a moment of truth from us no one including ourselves expected he'd be this involved in Doge this involved in Trump Administration and it's really cascaded Tesla S slightly higher today but seeing a more than 50% draw down from its recent High several negative notes this week about that stock not from our next guest though who has defended it and more than once Dan Ives is wed Bush Security's head of Technology research he's here with us at Post 9 thank you for coming on be here appreciate you being here cuz I think it's it's interesting that you have defended this name not once but twice in the last handful of days on March 6th last week you called it a table pounder last night you said your bullish view was unchanged there are a lot of questions about the stock it's been down seven straight weeks why' you feel compelled to come out and defend it not once but twice yeah I mean well first I mean we've been talking investors you know all around the World on Tesla and is like is this a moment that basically the bull thesis basically gets thrown out because of some of the brand issues the distractions and our view is when things are great okay anyone could be there but when things are tough moments like this I think that's where we've been able to guide Tesla investors over the decade right in terms of these moments I don't believe that this is really a Black Swan event for Tesla in terms of the brand issues in terms of is something that could really deteriorate the medium and long-term Outlook but no doubt we've talked about it it's a Moment of Truth for musk no one including ourselves expected he'd be this involved in Doge this involved in Trump Administration and it's really cascaded and I think this is a pivotal moment for him explain to me how you go from your bullish view unchanged those are your words yep last night to this morning where you put out a note ahead of our appearance where you call it a Moment of Truth what happened from last night to this morning where you didn't have that perspective until this morning yeah how does this happen I I I think from our perspective it's it it's more hearing musk hearing from investors around the world and it's basically us saying the medium long-term case for Tesla I continue to view 2 trillion I may I believe when it comes to physical AI autonomous robotics they're they're actually the best position coming in the world but with that said to hear musk continue to talk and and again on social media as well it's really us trying to explain like look this is the time very similar as we saw during Twitter very similar as we saw even called a year and a half ago this is the time to lead it's a time to be CEO because I think patience is wearing thin among investors and it was really to communicate those his thoughts and I think a pivotal time for the stock the reason why the stock is down is seem seems to be a Confluence of events obviously his presence within the administration as close he as he has become he's become a much more polarizing figure politically but the facts are the facts and the facts are that sales are not good and they haven't been good is any I mean are you taking that into consideration sales in China down for the past five consecutive months right down 49% in February the lowest monthly figure since July of 2022 Us sales down again last month down 75% in Europe 65% in Australia this has become more of a headline story to an actual fundamental breakdown somewhere yeah but let's also talk about what's ahead in other words the refresh from a mod Y perspective when you look at a lot of the refreshers that are happen Europe in China in the US you got the unsupervised FSD Aus and I continue to believe 90% of the value going forward is going to be autonomous is going to be robotics when it comes to Optimus and I believe from a demand perspective especially when it comes to FSD 15% of Tesla owners have FSD that's what we estimate as that goes to 40 50% I mean numbers basically triple in terms of from an EPS perspective as that plays out and look I get it this is a Time have we been dead wrong this year in Tesla of course it's been disaster call but for 25 years I have our best calls are ultimately in times like this that I believe as you navigate the noise this will be not just a one trillion but two trillion but it comes down to musk needs to balance durge Tesla's CEO that's something where I think the Clock Struck midnight Tesla is coming off its worst trading day since 2020 falling 15% in yesterday's session that stock is down now more than 50% from its all-time high that was reached in December still if you're looking for the last year it's up 25% so it has been a pretty volatile stock joining us right now is longtime Tesla bull Ron Baron he is Baron capitals chairman and CEO he's been again a longtime investor not just in Tesla but in many other Elon Musk companies and Ron thanks for coming in today thanks for inviting me uh let me ask you very quickly right now how you're feeling about the overall markets you're a value investor when stocks comes down come prices come down sometimes value investors get pretty excited how do you feel about things well it makes people very uh unsettled right now all the things that are happening so quickly um I think they're intentional I think that um the government you that um musk incredibly consequential person uh advising uh the president uh and I think that all the things they say that make the market go up or down uh you shouldn't think that those are U by you know by uh miscommunication they they're all intentional not intentional to drive the stock market down to get to a different place for the economy and well everything I think they might even be intentional to try to slow down the economy get rid of inflation first term president the first thing you do is try to do things that are going to be unattractive to your constituents uh you know if you're going running for election but you do it now get it out of the way and then a year and a half from now then things will look better year from now things will look better but stock prices I've been saying for a little while now I can't believe how cheap they are are the things that we're look at so you're on a buying spree right now I didn't say I was in a buying spree I just said I can't believe about cheap things I own a lot of things I'm a long-term invest you know was interesting I listened to your analyst this morning on television and he was talk you were talking to him about Tesla Jean monster Jean monster and you were asking him great shirts he has all the time I think guess but you were asking him about U you know what you thought about Tesla I said well for a four what was it a four we Horizon four we Horizon so that's the was his mindset a four-week horizon and I think he did say for a four we you could see some volatility but longer term he was a fan yeah but I mean he was focusing on four weeks right and basically uh you know I met Elon in 2010 and it took me four years before I invested anything and between 2014 and 16 invested $400 million and we made 67 billion on that um and then uh we invested in SpaceX in uh 20 17 on about a billion one that's now worth about 4 and a half billion I think that over the next 10 years in SpaceX we can make 10 times Elan thinks we're going to make 30 times uh in and in Tesla I think we're going to make from where it was a trillion one I was thinking we would make four times over the next 10 years I think we're going to make more than that now from these prices Ron so there's two issues I think going on with Tesla right now I'm curious where you where you land there's the fundamental issue which is just what's happening in the economy how many people are going to buy cars at least the products that we know about today right um when you think Robo taxis develop when you think new cars come out all of that kind of stuff that's the actual fundamentals of the business and then there's the multiple question which is really a market psychology question to some degree I mean they're related hopefully but there sort of as I look at it sort of two issues there's multiple which are multiples are coming down in everything but then there's the actual fundamentals of the business so you're thinking a year out it's a lot better and my question to you is what happens in a year from now to the fundamentals of the business meaning are they selling more cars are you think that they're going to launch new models that we're going to see do you think the robot taxi product actually does launch in a that's and it's material to the business during that period what's what's the sort of catalyst so um so fundamentals uh so I I want to get one thing straight though first of all that we're investors in people uh for the long term question everything don't take anything we investing for the long term exceptional takes time we look out years own it we own things we don't buy and sell things um and uh the far as the fundamentals go so I want to make sure we talk about other people too other than Elon I'm not talking about El I'm just talking about the business major guy so so his his uh uh business you wouldn't have a business without him you wouldn't have EVS without him you wouldn't have autonomous driving without him you wouldn't have the internet for every inch of the planet without him you wouldn't have rockets that you can use over without him I'm an unbelievable engineer uh and the fundamentals of the business this is an inflection point right now last time I was on uh the stock price was 160 and I was telling you that I thought that um you know this was a really interesting time to buy because the robo uh you know the software was working wayo when they have cars uh you have to have $150 $200,000 car our car is uh you know $335,000 car and it's software it's software in cameras and so he was going to drive just like a person and uh and probably better way better than a person each each new uh uh series of uh you know ructions is dramatically better than the last one so fundamentals the changes is that so historically what we did is we what Tesla did is they built a facility in China they bought this junky place that bank that was bankrupted by Toyota and uh uh and G General Motors in California and all the union workers were fired hear that Joe Biden all the union workers were fired and then every single one lost their jobs and then we take over this plant and they go look at it for the first time after he buys this thing for distressed price they spent a billion on it it cost us 20 or $30 million to buy it and then uh they go to see it and Elon says yeah let's go look at this this place we bought and it's a huge facility 5 million square F feet and they can't get into it they finally get inside and they go with one of his friends from college who a director and they open the door and they look inside and it's dark and dismal and uh it's drugs and prostitution and and uh you know it's crazy stuff inside of that place and and uh and they look around and it's incredibly dark and elon's looking around he says well what we're going to do is we take off the roof here we're going to make it all white and we have the production line running there and so now so they learn how to build it and and it was making four 500,000 cars a year 600,000 cars then they go out and they uh build a facility in Shanghai uh and it cost them $7 billion to build it for a million cars and that factory was making1 15,00 in profit of car investing 7 billion making $15 billion a year and and uh and then price cut after price cut after price cut Chinese are incredible competitors I don't understand how American car companies Will Survive but except for Tesla uh and and so I'm going too long no no R let me let me just ask you any the fundamentals are changing instead of making five or six or $7,000 a car you're going to Robo cars and every time they have a million cars that they make that they keep that are $30,000 a piece that last a million miles those cars are going to generate 50,000 Revenue miles a year so before the model was they're making $7,000 in profit a car 6,000 in profit a car a million eight cars now all of a sudden you're keeping the cars and making them Robo taxis what that means is that if you do 50,000 miles a year for a car those cars generate will generate 50,000 Revenue miles will generate 30 or 4 or $50,000 in profit per year per car so every time you have a million cars you're adding 30 or 40 or $50 billion to 30 or 40 or $50 billion to profits per year from million cars
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