저자: Jean-ClaudeLarochelle · 외국인
요약 보기
Ed Yardeni의 12개 근거를 소개하며 2024년 강세장을 예상. 금리 인하 기대, 소비자 신뢰·고용·부동산·기업 현금흐름 개선, 하이테크/AI 붐, 소형주 거래량 증가 등을 근거로 제시. 시장은 조정 후 상승 추세가 이어질 것으로 보며, 강세 심리가 3대1로 강하다고 언급. 대선 전후 변동 가능성은 열어둠.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone. It's January 2nd, 2024. Today's podcast is based on the statements of an economist I didn't know, whom I found quite by chance in a Zé H Pu article. It's pretty much the same conclusions I've reached, and many others have. The economist's name is Ed Yardeni, and you can visit his website.
Just search " yard desis" on Google, or whatever search engine you use; you 'll find his site. He uses a lot of charts to support his arguments, but there are 12 points that lead him to believe the market in 2024 will be very bullish, even characterizing it as a bit of a crazy year. I believe this, partly because the charts clearly show a lot of new market participants entering the market in 2023, especially at the end of...
So, in 2023, we find ourselves right now with a kind of euphoria, yes, a potential euphoria. In 2024, I'm talking about a potential euphoria that could propel the markets to new heights, and we'll see what the consequences of all this will be for the American elections in November 2024. Well, basically, in this article, I'm just going to give you a few points— 12 points in total—that this guy, AED Yardeni, says this year is going to be a really euphoric year.
Well, these are the points, basically. Maybe you're already familiar with them, at least if you're a little interested in the American economy, because it has to be said, it's the American markets that are running the world. The other markets are n't big enough, they don't have the potential to raise global economic levels.
Whereas, yes, the American market, the American economy, $22 trillion GDP, so yes, the Americans have an astronomical debt of $33 trillion, but the GDP needs to be $22 trillion per year and is in Growth, even if we don't want to admit it, the Americans do have a lot of debt. I read that the interest on the American debt is equivalent to the entire Department of Defense in the United States, so a lot of money tied up in the United States.
But I think the governments will still continue to inject money and make promises to the people, but it doesn't matter. As I said, when you want to follow a trend, you shouldn't get hung up on the details. That's perhaps what I did for years. Today, I look at trends as they are and simply follow them without asking too many questions.
But this article is very interesting. Well, I'll give you the points, and then you can go and see for yourselves. I'll probably include the Zero Edge article, and the Zero Edge article on the podcast, and the link there, and also the link to the economist, Aide Yardenny. So, excuse me, the dozens of points...
Okay, so I might not go into all the points, we'll see. First point, interest rates have returned to normal, and with Paell's statement that we'll have three interest rate cuts this year, and in 2024, I have no idea if it's a directive as I mentioned in my last podcast. However, we will probably have interest rate cuts, or if we look at the interest rate charts, there's been a slight dip, as I explained, with the US dollar.
It's clear we're correcting a trend, and we don't know, we're almost at the floor of the DX, there at 200, we're at 101.53 this morning I think. So, interest rates... consumers have purchasing power, and besides, the consumer confidence index in the United States is rising again. Households are wealthy when...
I know households are rich, and you're going to tell me there's poverty, yes, that's not it, I'm saying, but most of the time in the United States, I'm saying there's a lot, a lot of cash in the hands of households, that's a reality, but I know there are many, many disparities, so it's not that everyone is rich in the United States, but those who have money have a lot of money, so that's one of the reasons why the stock market will perform in 2024.
The demand for labor is still strong, even if we've had a small dip, but it's continuing, it's not letting up, the famous pressure that we've been waiting for for so long never came, and uh, we're with that in the United States, I'm saying the boom of relocation is stimulating investment spending, uh, we're talking about relocation, well, it's real estate, ultimately, so it's working, real estate is booming, uh, even if we had a small contraction, I looked at house prices yesterday in the United States and we're beating Yet another new record!
So, in real estate, we know that in all sectors here in Canada, we're simply waiting for interest rates to drop so we can reinvest in real estate. And there are a lot of houses being built all over the place, in North America especially. Well, here at least in Toirvi, it's true, construction is really booming.
Cash flow has reached record levels, meaning companies have a lot of cash. Inflation, well, we know very well that it's starting to decrease. High-tech is stimulating productivity; we're at the 9th point. And we saw that with, well, we say GPT, which is artificial intelligence. By the way, I'm talking about artificial intelligence.
If you see my bull with my bear on my forehead from my podcast, I didn't create that; it was artificial intelligence. So yes, I simply asked it to create a bull facing a bear in front of Wall Street, and it gave me I had to choose several images, I modified them a bit, but it's the result of artificial intelligence.
So for that, and for text too, I also use artificial intelligence to write certain texts. So you have to know where you're going, that's the point, the Prom, which is the basis of this: making a good request at the AI level, correcting our request, but it works. So artificial intelligence, whatever we think of it, whatever we want, yes, it's there.
To stay at the programming level, there's a lot of progress there too. So that's it, that's it. Basically, there was nothing new, simply the fact of having latches, it's about using Big Data, data that we have all over the planet on all the servers, and creating a synthesis with that. So if I ask, for example, to hire Python to create small programs for me, I've seen that it works.
Yes, we'll say that it's Maybe not as efficient, yes, I understand, but it's the time we can save for, uh, things like that. So yes, the high-tech revolution, we see it very clearly, the Nasdaq is exploding, everything related to technology, artificial intelligence, there's something happening, so that means 2024 will continue in this direction.
I 'll hurry up, leading indicators... well, we're also talking about leading indicators, but I looked at... I use a website to look at economic data, and indeed, we're really at the end of a slump and we're slowly recovering, as I said. And the article also says maybe until 2024, when we have the American election, and that's understandable because the American election will have a lot, a lot of...
well, that year, a lot of disinformation in the mainstream media, a lot of... let's say just about anything to make it seem like a sham. To say that this is bogus, this is the extraordinary guy who saved America, and that's completely false. We know very well that when they withdrew troops from Afghanistan, it was a horror.
We know very well that all these policies are absolutely absurd, even at the level of immigration. Right now, there's a problem at the border. Many migrants are entering the United States easily, going to big cities, and the mayors of cities like New York and Chicago are starting to ask— because formerly it was a woman, a man, a woman, I don't dare say it—now it's a new man who's there.
Well, they're starting to ask the federal government to come and help them with illegal immigrants, but they've always encouraged this. But now, with these problems, it was the same thing, the same thing with the police. We wanted the police to be less active, and we had consequences, especially in American cities.
It's a real disaster. Well, the challenges of the rest of the world must remain under control. Well, we're talking about the bottom line here. Sure, we could have other wars, but when we had the, when we were quickly diverted from the, the, the COVID, the COVID, when we were told about the war in Ukraine, the media immediately changed direction and we were told it was terrible, that Russia, all the big talk, and we know very well that it's about, about, about relationship-breakers, that had happened with, I don't remember, in 2013, and NATO broke its agreements with Russia, and that's the reason—I don't want to defend Putin, but it's because of that that Russia went into Ukraine—and we mustn't forget that in Ukraine, people say Putin didn't want to know anything, that's not true.
In 2022, Putin took steps to try to resolve that conflict with Zelensky. Zelensky didn't want to know anything, and then we had Boris Johnson who went to Ukraine saying, "No way, we're not resolving it," and now we're up to four 400,000, 500,000 dead on the Ukrainian side, or I don't know if that's the total, but in any case, and that's going to come out because, deep down, there was corruption involved, a lot of money was embezzled for high-ranking ministers.
It came out in the media, and in a very, very small way, but you have to go to other media outlets to realize that there was a lot, a lot of corruption involved. So that's it, yes, maybe there will be other guys this year, Ukraine, Israel, grass. We thought that the whole market would collapse, on the contrary, the war continues.
It's sad, but no, the market continues to rise. Well, we're at, uh, the 12th point. I was told here it's 13 points every year. Foll, uh, well, that's what the 12th point says, that the market will also continue to feed on itself, and we can see that here on the graphs. The market is also being fueled because so many people are getting in.
We can see that with the volumes; the volumes are very, very impressive, especially for small-cap stocks, which could take the Rossell index from 2000. The small-cap ETF is iWM, and you'll see that we'll probably surpass the peak in 2024, so there's an explosion there too. Well, that's what... no, I think that's it.
That's pretty much all the conclusions due to the fact that in 2024 we're going to have a year... this isn't my own idea, it comes from Ed Yarden, the economist. I'll put the link in the comments. So, no, that's it, not in the comments, but in my podcast description today. So that's what I wanted to talk to you about.
You can go and see for yourselves. I'm going to put the Zero Edge article, and then I'll put the link to the "No Question" economics. And for me, as I said, we're still in... A bull market, the reason is very, very simple. I think we saw graphically a confirmation of the beginning of an upward trend in 2023, and then we had a lot of entries, a lot of people, well, institutional investors, who entered the market.
A correction in October, as I told you, that's pretty normal. September and October are very, very difficult months, and now we have a reversal, and the reversal is quite impressive because we can see it on the charts. It's going to be something to watch in 2024. I'm not saying anything, I'm simply following the trend, which is currently upward.
We'll see where it ends, maybe before the election, or maybe at the election if there's going to be a lot of information in 2024, regarding the American election, of course. But we'll see what happens. Maybe there will be a surprise, maybe it will fall at some point, but for Right now, at the beginning of 2024, we're seeing a small correction, which is normal.
The market has been so down for nine weeks, so it's normal that we might see some correction or consolidation in January, Jeanpieu. But for the moment, there's nothing indicating that we're going back to a bear market. Well, I say anything can happen, but in any case, the bullish sentiment is very, very strong, it's 3 to 1, so it's something to keep an eye on. See you tomorrow for a new podcast.
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