Fisher Investments' Ken Fisher on positioning for midterm elections

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결론: 2018년 11월 중간선거 이후 미국 증시는 조정기를 지나 강세장이 이어질 것이며, 기술·대형 성장주 중심의 리더십이 유지될 것이라는 낙관론. 계절성 통계: 중간선거 분기는 S&P 500에서 과거 87%가 플러스였고, 다음 해 1분기와 2분기도 각각 87%가 플러스. 세 분기를 합치면 9개월 기준 91%가 플러스였으며, 의회 교착 여부와 무관하다고 설명. 불확실성 해소: 중간선거 결과 자체가 불확실성을 줄여 시장에 긍정적이라는 주장. 이후 무역, 전 세계 성장 등으로 관심이 옮겨갈 것이라고 봄. 거시 지표: 미국 외 시장의 심리는 비관적이지만 경기선행지수는 영국·일본 등 일부를 제외하고 대부분 국가에서 높고 상승 중이라고 설명. 금리곡선: 미국 장단기 금리차 평탄화 우려가 많았으나, 재무부 자료상 현재 금리곡선은 1990년대 후반 어느 해보다 가파르다고 주장. 무역 리스크: 2018년 전 세계에서 제안된 관세 전체의 세금 효과는 전 세계 1년 GDP 성장률의 약 4% 수준으로, 과장된 우려라고 평가. 시장 전망: 최근 미국 시장의 두 번의 작은 하락과 해외의 큰 하락은 조정기이며, 강세장 지속을 예상. 강세장을 끝낼 요인은 보이지 않는다고 봄. 정책 전망: 민주당이 하원을 가져가든 말든 연준 정책은 크게 달라지지 않을 것이며, 중앙은행의 지적 능력에 대한 신뢰는 낮다고 언급. 포지셔닝: 대형 고품질 성장주, 특히 기술주와 대형 제약(헬스케어)이 후반 강세장을 이끌어 온 흐름이 계속될 것으로 전망. 소비재 경기소비재·필수소비재는 보조적으로 언급. 출연자 전망 요약: 미국 증시는 조정 후 상승 추세 지속, 기술·헬스케어 주도.

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01. we've had a lot of history in the past of volatility before midterms sometimes we have it sometimes we don't but one of the points that I always make is that we're in a unique time that's consistent with history as opposed to inconsistent with history in that if you look at the midterm election quarter it's been positive eighty seven percent of the history of the S&P 500 if you look at the subsequent first quarter of the next year it's been positive also eighty-seven percent of history and the second quarter of the next year has been positive eighty-seven percent of history which I've sometimes referred to as the 87 percent miracles but if you take those three quarters together when one of the quarters has been negative as this one might be because of the weakness in October it still been true that the nine months overall has been positive 91 percent of history and that's been regardless of whether we had gridlock or not it's really about falling uncertainty because going into a period like now we asked what about this and what about that and if the Democrats this and if the Republicans that but the outcome of a midterm election is falling uncertainty markets like that we've had a big global correction where America's done better than the rest of the world sentiment is dour outside of America which is good and things are actually pretty darn positive so so in other words the event happens one less one fewer uncertainties for the market to juggle and then we can move on to focusing on things like what trade and and overall global growth and of course there's the endless nonsense I mean today is the beginning of the presidential campaign which is kind of unfortunate in a lot of ways we kind of have sunset sunrise midterm elections presidential election it's kind of a sorry state in terms of the continuity of the political turmoil but the fact of the matter is leading indicators are high and rising over most of the world with a few exceptions like Britain and Japan where they don't have their own individual problems the one associated with bricks it and the other yeah more or less continuous stupid policies and then you've got the factors people worry about all kinds of stuff this year there's been an inordinate amount of talk about flattening yield curve in America but in fact if you were to go to the Treasury's website you can do a very nice historical depiction of the yield curve now versus the yield curve at other points in time and today's yield curve is a deep or steeper than any single year in the back half of the 1990s which was a boring period okay where does that leave us when we get further into next year when indeed the 2020 presidential gear up is in full swing and and I guess we've got to start worrying about the things that are inevitable for the market to worry about trade entitlements after kind of first term promises well what happens with actually delivering on what the economy needs well my points been that the tariff fears have been overblown and I've written a lot about that the actual tariffs are a tax and the total tax of all of the things proposed by any country anywhere in 2018 amount to approximately four percent of one year's global GDP growth so it's really been making mountains out of what's a relative molehill but the fact is what I think we do is we get past this corrective period that we've been in with two minor dips in the US market and a bigger dip overseas and we move forward into the continuation of the bull market that's far from a nebulous stage and far from having anything that we can see that would kill it so have you made any investment pics here can based on a prediction for the outcome of these elections I mean if the Democrats when are you expecting the Fed to pull back away from these rate hikes somewhat because of slower growth or are you positioning yourself in a different way if the Republicans managed to maintain their majorities in both houses I've never had much confidence in central banks to engage in very intelligent monetary policy at all because I was always been a big fan of Milton Friedman's teachings but the fact the matter is I don't think they'll be very different whether that Democrats take the house or don't take the house what I think will happen is we'll see a continuation of the trend that we've had throughout the back half of this bull market of leadership from big high-quality Grothe companies Tech on the one hand and big tech in particular Big Pharma and to a lesser extent consumer discretionary consumer staples but those two big engines healthcare and technology I think continue to move forward as we get past this corrected period you