저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜덤은 2021년 거품의 디플레이션 국면이 진행 중이며 2024년경 기업이익 감소와 경기침체 및 주가 하락이 올 수 있다고 본다. 연준의 경기침체 회피 판단에 반대하고, 금리는 10년 평균보다 높은 시대로 재진입했다고 주장한다. 장기적으로는 기후변화가 핵심 투자 이슈이며 녹색기술 투자는 아직 초기라고 본다. 미국 시장은 과대평가, 미국 외 시장은 상대적으로 덜 과대평가됐다고 본다.
다듬은 글
you are well known in the investment world for uh saying that sometimes there are bubbles and Bubbles should be avoided do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech Bubble Burst is over I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary period period the deflating period uh which is a function of uh will the earnings a decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices so the recession that you're predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023 but maybe it may start in 2023 uh the Federal Reserve re recently said that they think we've uh kind of cleared the recession uh hurdle and they don't really project a recession any longer you disagree with the FED on that yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset ass prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do now you said uh not too long ago that you weren't a big fan of JP and the way he's been handling inflation uh is that correct yes that's correct and you think he's done a better job recently in getting inflation under control I think um it's largely out of his hands the forces work I suspect inflation will will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have re-entered a period of of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down and we're now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years so today uh you would say we're likely to go into a recession probably next year though it could start this year that the uh Tech Bubble Burst that we saw beginning let's say last year has not yet completely played itself out right and we have a little mini bubble a bit in artificial intelligence in a way not so many uh they were very big moves in a dozen very big stocks so you went to college in England is that right yes and what did you study I studied economics and you said okay now I know economics I'm ready to go to Harvard Business School what repelled you to go across the ocean to go to Harvard Business School well actually I applied for a job in a in a consulting firm uh dominated by Oxford and Cambridge upper class gentleman and uh the interview was so insulting um he said come back and see me when you've had you know 35 years of variated experience or you've been to the Harvard Business school so I walked out I stood on the sidewalk wondering whether I should burn the building down or apply to Harvard Business School so I did the latter so how did you do at Harvard Business School I think um I was the classic bottom of the top third okay so as the bottom of the top third did you decide to stay in Boston go back to England what did you decide to do I uh decided to do what so many of us did get a job in Consulting management consulting and use that time to see what was cooking actually it took me the lunch on the first day uh to realize that Consulting was not for me right so she went to work for Keystone yes and then you left there after how many years I left there after 9 months nine months I propositioned my boss uh Dean learon to uh that we might start a new firm on our own well that produced a lot more money coming in I assume that took care of of our problems for a long time but when did you become so well known for predicting bubbles or thinking that the markets were out of kilter sometimes was that because of your writings or because of your stock picking or your public speeches um I started writing quarterly letters in 98 and 9899 of course was a glorious uh a glorious bubble and it just went up and up and up and up and U we fought the bubble uh all the way so we were horrifically too early that was a brutal two years and the earnings were Rising as well so the market made a magnificent move from its all-time high in early 98 went straight up until March of 2000 and um and our clients did not approve of us being early and uh to a very considerable degree Fest so people pulled money out and then when the market finally did have its collapse so called Bubble Burst did people call you up and say we're sorry can we give you our money now not a single solitary person who fired us came back uh for the same product that they fired us for personnel changed they inadvertently came back years later but no one came back we didn't lose money in 2000 we didn't lose money in 2001 and we did not buy the skin of our teeth lose money in 2002 so by the time the S&P was down 50% we had had three up years so that that made the firm that Drew in the asset investors are racing to put their money into climate solutions by the end of last year the number of global mutual funds and ETFs focused on climate investing climbed 27% from 2021 collectively these 1,200 funds manage more than $400 billion and in the first quarter of 2023 climate themed ETFs made up 40% of all newly opened funds but long before it was trendy billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham was passionate about addressing the climate crisis in 1997 he and his wife launched the Grantham foundation for the protection of the environment now Grantham is pledging the bulk of his fortune to the foundation to fight climate change he calls the effort the race of our lives and for him the capital flowing into green investing reflects the warnings he's been making for years extreme weather like floods and fires have created momentum for policies like carbon taxes which will transform Global investing as of now he seems to be correct last year's inflation reduction act included roughly $370 billion of climate incentives and by the end of 2022 Global investment in energy transition topped $1 trillion what are you most worried about when you wake up every day and look at the stock market and the economy well if you want my the honest answer well I want your honest answers it's uh I I feel that the economy and and particularly the stock market is very secondary to a list of important long-term problems that we have that no one takes seriously enough yet and I feel that when we sit here discussing the stock market we're a little like Emperor Nero fiddling while while Rome Burns um my my job description these days at GMO is working on long-term underrated problems and it's been a wonderful time to be doing that because we have climate change the most important issue in the investing world for the next few decades we have shortages of resources we have shortages of Manpower a population bust Al likee of which we have never seen particularly in a few countries like China with huge significance we have an incredible growth in inequality which I think is the poison in the political system and we have a great surge of toxicity I think we've made our planet unfavorable to life in every form including Homo sapiens and these are real issues they're moving incredibly fast they threaten the well-being of homo sapiens they threaten perhaps the exist of a stable Global Society so but we we U we we spend all our time and energy discussing of these relatively trivial issues which I've spent my life studying and for good or bad I have spent a lot of effort thinking about the great bubbles so let's talk about uh outside of investing um you are obviously very concerned about climate change and your foundation is devoted to climate change related things so what do you do to help climate change do you walk a lot do you ride bikes or what do you do to kind of promote the idea that people should not ruin the environment not not not enough I I figure um but I I I have a Tesla and uh and I feel guilty when I take a jet um but what we do with our money is much more to the point uh 50% of our foundation is invested in Green Technology and half of that 25% we do ourselves we have a team of of about six people and we've done we've done about 60 deals uh directly it has often thought that uh there might be a bubble in green investing because some people say so much money is going into green investing that maybe that's a bubble are you worried about that I am worried about that but the good news is countries all over the world are finally realizing this is the serious issue they're moving their their tax structure they're moving their subsidies they're moving their research dollars uh to to to Green the IRA in the US wonderful example has really set set the wheels turning and uh the wind is in the sales of of green investing the uh Topline Revenue growth of green companies of EVS will completely dominate the Topline Revenue growth of the old gasoline powered vehicles for example so I'm not not too late to get into this it is very very early and for at least the next 100 years uh climate change will be the dominant investing issue well I'm going to call you in a 100 years and see how it works out I think of myself as a realist trying to see the world as it really is and not the way I'd like it to be and sometimes I succeed and sometimes I fail in that so let me ask you a few final questions um what is the best investment advice you've ever received somebody said here's what you should do Jeremy and you thought it was really good advice done it I can't I can't think of of any maybe nobody gave you any great investment maybe they didn't maybe that's why I've had to make all the mistakes myself what about uh the worst mistake that investors a the average investor makes you've seen a lot of investors is there a common mistake that investors make they get um far too enthusiastic and um I understand that I I I can get pretty enthusiastic about about New Deals new startups when people are presenting them um I I like to leave those decisions to my colleagues who have better discipline so I I understand getting carried away and I am invested in that first bubble of 1968 uh and managed to make a small fortune and lose it and after that I became a completely DieHard value manager so if I said to you look I'm not that wealthy I have $100,000 I'd like to put it somewhere where I'm not going to lose it what would you recommend the person just a Index Fund or something else no no I think a a global index fund that that had um most of its money outside the US and if if they were up to it I would say only invest outside the US for the time being because this this overpricing in the market is mainly a US event the markets outside the US are not particularly overpriced so for a young person today do you think it's a good idea to go into the money management world today Venture Capital private Equity you think that business is too crowded and would you recommend to some young person what they should do now and do you think the money management business is a good business to be in it's a good business for making money I think it's inherently trival which is a problem we've all had to deal with and I would say a good combination of trying to make money and be useful is go into uh go into the Venture Capital World either run a startup yourself or deal with funding the startups and picking the winners and helping the winners uh and if you could focus on on the real problems that we somewhat talked about like like uh uh climate change then you you really are combining a chance of making a lot of money with doing some good so would you call yourself overall an optimist or a pessimist pessimist because you're saying the markets are always overvalued and we're going to have problems or an optimist because you've lived a life where you've seen so many great things happen to you I think of myself as a realist trying to see the world as it really is and not the way I'd like it to be and sometimes I succeed and sometimes I fail in that but uh when when I focus on on new Ventures I must say it's irresistible to be optimistic they can really carry you along
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