The rate cut feels like it's really coming, says Ed Yardeni

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CPI가 예상보다 낮게 나와 금리가 하락하며 시장 상승. 강세장이 대형 기술주 중심에서 S&P 493 및 중소형주로 확산되는 국면이라고 봄. 연준의 9월 25bp 인하는 기대하지만 7월 인하는 없을 것이라 전망. 연준의 이중책무 균형 변화로 금리 인하가 가까워졌고, 경기는 양호하며 주식시장 상승세가 지속될 것이라 주장.

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01. takes us to our talk of the tape even higher stocks that is the call today from Ed yardeni he joins me right now uh Ed welcome back it's nice to see you thank you thank you Scott C CPI better than expected uh yields fall we see parts of the market going up pretty sharply today what do you make of it well I think the bull market is broadening as you know there was a lot of concerns that it had been narrowing to just a handful of stocks the so-called magnificent s but I think today is an important day I think this this is the day where investors are starting to rotate uh out of the magnificence of it into into the rest of the market I don't think this is going to continue to pull the S&P 500 down I think there's going to be enough money uh to keep the uh leading uh stocks that have done so well fairly elevated but I think we are going to see more gains uh in the S&P 493 as well as in this midcaps the small and middle midcap stocks so this is the start of something because that's been the great debate when this broadening would happen there's been some teases before but you think this is legit well I think it's legit uh partly because uh the the the FED is uh changed my mind uh in terms of where interest rates are going uh we still think that the economy is doing well enough with inflation moderating that there's no real good reason for the FED to lower interest rates but J PA has made it very clear the FED chairman has made it very clear that that they really do want to lower interest rates and so I think uh now the market is absolutely right in anticipating a 25 basis point cut in September I don't think it's going to happen in July and so now we're actually going to see interest rates come down as you know at the beginning of the year the markets were expecting six to seven cuts and that just never happened this time around I think the rate cut is coming that feels like that's what the takeaway was over the last couple days right the chair on the hill I I thought pretty explicitly set the table on on what is to come timos The Wall Street Journal writing after that appearance that pal quote made the beginning of a pivot on interest rates that might prove more durable than one that sparked a big Market rally at the end of last year that that's what you're talking about absolutely and I think uh the key thing is that the FED now is balanced in its assessment of the Dual mandate in other words unemployment is just as important as inflation uh whereas before inflation was the key they were just totally focused on convincing us that inflation had to come down before they started lowering interest rates now they're basically signaling that you know we're getting pretty close there and you know excluding shelter the CPI was up only 1.8% uh in the in the data that came out today and we know shelter inflation is coming down so I hope they don't ever utter the words mission accomplished but I think they're getting awfully close to that and as a result of that they just want to make sure they don't uh get a recession which again I think has just been an exaggerated risk for over two years now yeah but I mean the the unemployment rate did tick over 4% for the first time in in some years right so that obviously put this whole thing on the clock you could sense from the commentary from the FED share himself that that was a moment to pay attention to and they don't want to let that go any further or any higher and ruin a good story that they think they're going to be able to tell look that's a reasonable position but uh I think the risk that they're taking is uh they in fact do move in September and the market continues to expect that that this will turn out to be a 1990 style melt up and then they'll have a whole another kind kind of problem with the with the economy and with the financial markets I mean Financial conditions are awfully easy for a for a Fed that uh maintains that they're being very restrictive uh I don't think they really need to ease but look it doesn't matter what I think they're going to do it and that's going to keep the bull market going and that's going to help the economy somewhat um and all in all the labor market indicators to me add up to a labor market that's doing just fine we saw initial claims coming down a bit today we saw the continuing CLA claims uh remaining relatively low so all in all I think the economy is doing fine without the FED having to mess around with the FED funds rate but like I said what I my opinion is irrelevant here what matters is what they're going to do and they've made it very clear they beat me up over the head that they are going to have lower interest rates