저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 연초 대비 15% 이상 상승, 연말 목표치(6,600) 상회 중이며 연말까지 추가 4~10% 상승 여력 제시. 연준 금리인하 기조가 강세 근거. 10월 10일 대규모 청산 이후 암호화폐 레버리지 해소 중이나 미결제약정 기록 저점과 기술적 반전 신호로 연말 랠리 전망. 비트코인이 대규모 청산에도 3~4% 하락에 그쳐 가치저장 수단으로 입증됐다고 주장. 금은 고점 근처로 단기 정점 가능성이 있으며 금 조정은 주식·암호화폐에 긍정적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Strats, Tom Lee. Tom, happy Friday. So, we're up more than 15% year-to-date for the S&P, probably more than you expected in late spring. At the same time, we had this government shutdown, tariff headaches. So, why are you why should investors be more bullish on risk assets, the market overall, than they were 6 months ago?
Um well, John, you know, even at the April lows, just to be clear, our S&P year-end target was 6,600. So, we were still expecting explosive recovery in markets. But, we are above that level, and you know, we're 10 weeks before the end of the year, and the S&P's at 6,800. I think it's still a base case then for people to say that in just a typical year, the S&P should gain another 4%.
That would put us over 7,000 into the end of the year, and I think that that's sort of the minimum. But, because we've got the Fed cutting, um and and they started in September, they've been on pause all year, that only happened twice in the last 50 years, which is 1998 and 2024. I actually think the S&P, given the skepticism that's been plaguing this market all year, we could do far better than 4%.
You know, maybe even 10% into year-end. Wow. Okay, so where does crypto fit in, especially when you're looking at how those currencies are moving versus what's happening with tariff concerns, global trade concerns, et cetera? Uh yeah, I mean, crypto had a huge deleveraging event on October 10th, and and part of that was triggered by the the escalating tensions with US and China on tariffs and trade.
Um and that was the biggest liquidation event in in 5 years for crypto. So, there is still those ripple effects, you know, 2 weeks later that are plaguing the crypto market, but I think we're almost through that because a measure like something called open interest for both Ethereum and Bitcoin are at record lows at a time when the technicals for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are are flipping positive.
So, I think you're going to see a crypto rally into the end of the year, and it's it really does help to see JP Morgan say they're open to the idea of using crypto as collateral. Yeah, I was actually going to get your thoughts on that, Tom. But, in light of that, and you and I have had these conversations uh over the months, over the years.
I can think about the conversation we had in early early August, uh where you talked about on the exchange where you talked about the fact that cryptocurrencies tend to be early indicators of where stocks are directionally headed, as well as indicators of liquidity in the broader market. So, given what we are seeing in Bitcoin, and as that relates to the S&P 500, and arguably what we're seeing in Ethereum, and what that says about the Russell 2000, want to get your thoughts.
Um yeah, I mean, I think it's sending a pretty bullish signal. Um part of it is it's a counterfactual statement, but crypto had the biggest liquidation event, deleveraging event in in history. You know, I mean, the the number it's is probably multiples of what happened during FTX. And Bitcoin ends up down 3 or 4%.
So, I I think it shows you that it's Bitcoin itself is proving to be a pretty good store of value because if we had seen this happen with gold in the gold market, if there was a huge deleveraging event, and gold was only down a few percentage points, we'd of course consider that a real validation. And it's also true of Ethereum because Ethereum is is seeing so much activity growth.
I mean, on the L1 and the L2 because of stablecoins, and it's not reflected in the price. It does take time. So, to me, because like what I'd call the fundamental activity on Ethereum is really picking up, it it it argues for a pretty big move into end of the year, as well. Do you think we're seeing rotation out of gold, given the fact that it just moved so quickly to record highs into some of these cryptocurrencies?
Um now, I don't follow gold as closely, but I did talk to Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, and he does think that there was what he called a cup and handle pattern earlier this year, and and then the the targeted move was right around where gold is peaking now. So, he does think we might be seeing a short-term peak in gold.
That's kind of good news for almost everything else because, you know, gold was sucking the oxygen out of equities and out of crypto. So, a gold cooling is probably bullish for both stocks and for Bitcoin and Ethereum. All right. Tom Lee, thank you. Thanks. The market's soaring to all-time highs today on the back of that
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