저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
딤온은 시장에 과도한 낙관(exuberance)이 있고 중동·우크라이나·인플레이션 등 리스크가 과소평가되어 있다고 경고. 기업 이익과 재정지출·QE·감세 효과로 증시는 상위 10~15%권이며 신용스프레드는 매우 낮다고 언급. 중동 사태는 날마다 악화되고 있고 호르무즈 해협 재개 시점은 불확실하다고 봄. 하위 30% 소비자는 어려움을 겪지만 상위 소비는 견조. AI는 장기적으로 긍정적이나 사이버 리스크(Mythos)와 일자리 충격에 대비 필요. 유럽·영국 금융·방산 투자 확대를 강조.
다듬은 글
[. I could not be more happy to be here in Paris with Jamie Dimon, of course, at JP Morgan Global Markets Conference. Uh Mr. Dimon, thank you for having us. Thank you for being our host here in Paris. I mean, there's a lot riding the the markets are optimistic. They're optimistic that there's some kind of resolution in the Middle East.
Are they overlooking the worries about inflation? Yeah. Tuvia, welcome. Happy to be here. Look, I think there's a little bit too much exuberance out there. And it's not just the Middle East, it's you know, it's Ukraine, Russia is still there, America, China. There's a lot of these complex issues, which may may not affect the market, but then there issues like inflation, you know, the today's print wasn't so good.
So, yeah, I think the market is kind of exuberant and it may not be completely justified. So, why are they so exuberant? If they're exuberant, are you expecting a correction? And is it because they're looking at AI? No, I don't think it's AI. I think corporate profits are doing very well. AI will be a plus, though.
This year it's just a lot more spending, which may be a little inflationary, too. Uh but it's more corporate profits. You know, we we're doing a little bit more QE. Government is still spending a lot of money. The one big beautiful bill is kicking in. Stimulus is offsetting a lot of the uh the gas the I think the gas increased a dollar gas is a hundred million dollars.
The big one big beautiful bill is two hundred billion that consumers pay. The one big beautiful bill is three hundred billion. Uh deregulation is real. There are these things which are causing, you know, pretty good market right now. But when you talk about exuberance, it means that there's a market dislocation.
Where do you see that? Well, the stock market is in the top ten fifteen percent. Credit spreads are very low. The general assumption is that things these things are all going to resolve. And I'm just I'm kind of a skeptic. I don't know I hope they do, but I don't know that they will. Okay, what do chief executives worry about in private that they tell you that they won't tell us?
Not much. The trade, you know, America, NATO, uh wars, oil prices. I mean, the same stuff you hear about all the time. But ca- CAPEX, I know you know, we had a great earning season. Yeah. Is the next one going to be less good? I don't know yet. It's very hard to tell. Um you know, we I think the deficit spending drives a lot of drives a lot of corporate earnings, too.
So, it's and drives a lot of CAPEX and you know, will CAPEX create productivity before it creates inflation? I don't know that. You know, I think one of the risks is inflation. I've always thought that and so But also, how how do you think of oil and how do you think about what's happening in the Middle East if this lasts 3 weeks, 4 weeks, even like 2 months?
Are we going to be in trouble? It's a big deal and every day it it gets a little bit worse. I don't know how it's going to be resolved. I hope it gets resolved in the interest of the United States and against the Iranian regime, uh not the Iranian people, uh but I don't know. But I read something today that was very interesting that China reduced their demand by 5 billion barrels by 5 million barrels a day.
America increased its exports by 3 million barrels a day. That 8 million has made up for a lot of what was lost and that which is maybe why it hasn't been as severe as people think. On the other hand, inventories are coming down, you know, uh gas wells may have to be closed and stuff like that. So, it it just gets a little more serious every day.
That day that it becomes a disaster has been pushed out quite further than we thought at the beginning. Do you worry about the US consumer? Are you see- are you seeing signs of stress anywhere? Not I I think the upper end, the top 50%, lots of money, jobs, wages going up, home prices going up, stock prices going up.
They're spending like they should, you know, like they're buying, they're traveling. The bottom 30% is I'm I'm going to say is struggling a little bit. Not a massive downturn and of course, we'd like to help them, but their wages have not gone up. But more important than that, they still have jobs and they don't have too much debt.
They still have jobs and that you know, at the end of the day, what's going to drive consumer spending, consumer sentiment, that part of corporate profits will be jobs. What do you worry about? I know there's also the the president's meeting with President Xi tomorrow in in Beijing. I mean, does does that have implications for the trajectory of America?
Look, I I I don't know, but I would suspect they'll come up with some that'll be a friendly meeting with some positives and both sides. I don't think China's going to give in to any major demands. I don't think we're going to make major demands. You know, we both have a lot of common interests. You know, anti-terrorism, anti-nuclear proliferation.
You know, China's feeling its oats. You know, they have to deal with President Trump. So, we'll see how it turns out. You had an amazing trading actually results. The trading was amazing in the last quarter. How's it going now? Well, I can't comment on that. But, I mean from the last time Troy spoke publicly, it was fine so far, but I can't give you other information than that.
So. Give give me a sense. Yeah. You you guys can see every day volumes Are high. Yeah, and if volumes are high, all things being equal, it'll be good for trading. But, but you're part of I mean, it's it's you think it's going okay cuz it depends on on the kind of trading that you put, right? You will trading is going to be very good.
Talk to me about AI. Yeah. So, I don't know whether you've also played around with Maytos. What did you see? So, AI big picture, AI is going to cure cancers and reduce work weeks and kids will live longer and planes will be safer and cars will be safer and less people die and you'll have new drugs. It's it's going to be good.
And you know, but there and we we've been using it now for 13 years. It does an amazing job at a variety of different things. So, we're going to deploy it to help our customers. There are two attributes that people are worried about. One is Maytos. It's legitimate that this this is so powerful and covers a lot of vulnerabilities and we're all trying to figure out how to deal with it.
Not just for ourselves, but with all of our friends. Big banks, small banks, you know, telecom, the government's on top of it, but a lot of the work's got to be done by enterprise. They don't have the ability to do a lot of that, so I think, you know, Scott Bessent is running for our banks and I assume they've done it for other people elsewhere.
So, we're all getting our hands around it. It is risky. Everyone and we actually published, if you were to look at this, like a list of what you could do now, don't wait to get my toes cuz everyone's going to get it at one point, but you can't get everyone there. They they can't handle it or it gets leaked out.
It could be used by bad guys before we protect it. Open source code and all our code and so we need a little work to do to get it done right. And the other one is this job disruption where, you know, I just that that may be true. We should get prepared for it. We shouldn't be breathless, you know, and that to me is how do you create skills and reskilling?
There will be a lot of jobs in AI, cyber, advanced manufacturing, the trades, you know, and then we should make sure locally like maybe between government and business kind of collaboration that we are prepared and we have it too much. Stop talking about it. Have a plan. But my thoughts, what does it change the way that banks have to defend themselves?
Are you thinking about cybersecurity differently? No, no, cyber no, banks have always been unbeliev- on top of top of the heat in terms of cybersecurity. I wrote about my chairman's letter, cyber is our biggest risk made worse by AI and that was before my toes. So, this yeah, this does make it more dangerous.
That's why banks are are really working this thing right now. You know, and all of us and not and together. We're collaborating. We're not like arguing with each other. What does that mean? What does that actually look like concretely in 5-6 months? We're all going through all our own applications. With my toes, patching them up.
We're all going through open source code. A lot of flaws in open source code. We don't need to all fix the same open source code. If you fix one, I can fix the other. Have a collaboration. Trying to figure out how to form utilities to help third parties, going to our critical vendors, you know, including uh we're hooked into exchanges around the world, making sure they're doing it properly.
Uh and there are other things like how do you, you know, a patch used to be posted publicly the old patch that fixed that patch. Now you have to be able to fix the patch in hours. And some you can't make public. If you make it public, the bad guys will get it, reverse engineer and get through. So we're doing all that stuff.
It's serious work. We have I think hundreds of people doing You're having a cool time though. Look, hyperscalers and also funding of hyperscalers is really propping up the economy. Do you have any worries about getting that money back or, you know, some of the funding of of what's being constructed?
the way I look at it is that AI is real. A lot of money's going to go into it. That doesn't mean everyone who does it is going to be a winner. Like it like go back to the internet. A lot of people lost, a lot of people won. And so, you know, in the hyperscalers do with those data centers not find use?
They probably will, but is it possible that some do it badly, design it badly, didn't get the right Yes, of course it's possible. Yeah. Do Does it Does AI change the way you recruit, the way you hire and and the way you work? I I think it's going to change almost everything. And I I I've done my own stuff in getting reports in the morning.
I have a Jamie strategic intelligence reports getting better. So I could say, "What did Francine say yesterday?" And every morning 5:00 a.m. it'll tell me what you had on your people that might be significant to me and then you can keep it educating. That's not important. This is important. What's significant?
So yeah, we're all going to use it in different ways, but we will use it. It won't change my my day-to-day. It will inside the company cuz we're deploying it, you know, in a thousand different use cases today. You're much better off just watching Bloomberg. Talk to me about the UK. So there's a lot of, you know, the markets are on tenterhooks to know whether the Prime Minister survives.
We don't exactly know what comes next. The markets are nervous. What does it mean for JP Morgan in London? Well, look, we've had ups and downs in markets and up and down politicians. So, it's not going to change our fundamental strategy. I would say that Europe, including the UK, know what to do. It's the Draghi report.
There's 300 items in there uh common capital markets, common regulations, allowing cross-border in this in in the EU competition. There's huge regulatory, not tariff, but regulatory burdens. They need to do the same thing in the UK. I think Keir Starmer is a very smart guy. Politics is really tough.
They're in a bind because of debts and deficits and you know, not they inherited a lot of that. I think the world world of racial Reeves and it's they got to be tough. They got to say, "We're going to do these things. In the short term it may not be great, but you know, governments have to get this stuff done right that grows the economy and militarily." And I think they need to work closely with Europe.
And you know, if you if you remember Keir Starmer and President Macron, they were going to work closer. Not reversing Brexit, but you know, military alliances, intelligence alliances, making sure the economies you know, have economic relations that are good for both the continent and good for Europe and with the UK.
You're building a a big mega project in Canary Wharf that everyone is quite excited about. Does this potential politically instability actually change your view on everything or you know, do you see costs going up or are you worried about taxation? Not political instability, but if they become hostile to banks again, yes.
I mean, I've always objected to the fact, you know, we didn't damage the UK in any way and we paid probably $10 billion of extra taxes by now. I don't think that's right or fair. If that happens too much, we will reconsider. Well, I know you've also looked a lot at Europe and funding and you know, especially when it comes to security.
I mean, how much time are you spending making sure that defense companies, that companies in Europe have enough funding from JP Morgan to make sure that they can I guess defend We have this huge effort. You know, we deploy over the years 1.5 trillion dollars to help It's not just as resiliency so it's it's even medicines and rare earths which will be defense, semiconductors defense, but it's anything that you need.
So you Europe needs LNG. So we we look at that as resiliency for Europe, not LNG in America, but shipping here is resiliency. So we we have professionals doing it. We got an unbelievable advisory group. We got dedicated, you know, 30-40 people. We're doing research now which you might be interested in.
Of course the shipbuilding ecosystem, of course the active pharmaceutical system, the rare earth system, and then having public policy which puts us in a better position. We the democratic world should never gotten here where we're so reliant on other people, potential adversaries for rare earths. And we did.
So don't cry over spilled milk, but let's fix it. And we got to fix it right away. And this is good for the US. Does Does the US need stronger allies? This is good for the US and I think having strong allies is good for the US. So my view is we need a stronger NATO. They're they're doing that by the way.
So you know, our president pushed them a lot. Well, they're all doing it which is a good thing. But we want to keep it together. The goal of it should be to have a stronger NATO, not a weaker NATO. The goal in my view, if I if you ask me what the goal should be of our economic relations with Europe, should be having a stronger Europe to get you to help you do the Draghi report.
I And I wrote my chairs that maybe a pipe dream that if you did the Draghi report, I would give you one big beautiful free trade bill. That's what I would do. And you know, and then fix some There are some stupid trade issues and fix them. But we both economies go better if they grew better be good for all the citizens, not just good for the big companies.
And so and I think those two things are pillars of keeping the world safe and free for democracy. So they're not a minor thing, they're a major thing if you look at over 20 or 30 years. So Jamie, today how would you fix the Middle East? I don't That I do not know. You know, I I but my When I hear a lot of politicians say "There was no imminent threat from Iran." I'm like, that immediately gets my back up because a threat is when I'm threatening to do something to you.
They've been raping, killing, and murdering for 47 years. Why the Western world allowed proxy wars? I mean, we've learned a lesson that we should have gone years ago at the head of this snake. We should have killed the head of the snake, you know? And so, now there So, now you have more risk, but maybe more opportunity cuz people want peace in the Middle East.
You know, we have this It's a terrible situation. I don't the outcome. I hope there's a plan C or a plan B. I want us to prevail in a way that makes sense. I don't know what the right thing to do was, but I'm not going to sit here and say they weren't a threat we should have done nothing. But but today, does the Strait of Hormuz need to reopen almost at any cost?
I don't I It will eventually be reopened. I don't know. I don't know, you know, you're talking about the military Military's been planning for things like this for 40 years. They have plans. I don't know what those plans are. And I you know, I hope it works. I just don't know. I mean, what is the one thing you you you wish you knew now given that I mean, there's a lot of uncertainty in the world, right?
Geopolitics, markets. If you could know one thing for certain from the president, what would it be? Well, I don't know about that. I just want to I look, I just roll up my sleeves and try to make it better than than it was. So, I don't guess for about one good thing or something like that. It's so complex.
This is so noisy. It's like speaking to you at a Mets game. Or it's like the it's it's quite fun. You're doing a good job, though. You too, Jamie Dimon. Thank you so much for joining us today. That was of course the Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan.
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