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do do do do do do okay now we'll get to the important stuff there's always something to worry about this is the difference this is what happens in the stock market because see everybody's got the brain power to do well in stock market question is where they have the stomach for it that's the key organ in the body there's always something to worry about i grew up i went to school grew up with a kid in the 50s in the decade of the 50s there's this big theory that the depression was caused by stock market crash totally wrong less than one percent of americans owned stocks in 29 we had this big time recession in fact it was a depression that's what it wasn't caused by the stock market with the economy went down the federal reserve raised interest rates and we had a big time depression in fact we had several depressions like that from 1850 on with this was only one of about eight depression since 1850 but people in the people thought the only reason we got the depression was world war ii and they said once we get back next time every session we're gonna have a depression and it's gonna be a great depression i never understood that adjective in front of depression you might be crummy depression or bad depression but it was a great depression i never quit quite understood that one the uh so people weren't buying stocks in the 50s because they thought another great depression is going to happen in addition people were very scared about nuclear warheads in nuclear war in the 50s people were building fallout shelters stocking canned goods there's something about going to vermont building a fall shelter putting canned goods in it that you don't buy minnesota mining or you don't buy you some good i mean just the syllogism just doesn't work out that you're buying uh lots of water buying a shotgun buying frozen food that will stay in the freezer with your own generator and you're looking at growth stocks doesn't seem to work out that way you know and i remember in the 50s i mean i remember literally in classes i was in elementary school in the 50s and they'd come in that have one of these air raid drills somebody yellow hat and coming they blow a whistle and you get under your desk even then i says i don't think this can do a lot of good you know the uh but people were worried about a depression in nuclear war in the 50s and then i mean the warheads they couldn't do much damage back in the 50s now one of these stan countries you know these kakistan and kazakhstan all these stand guys that have spun off these these freeman billing spin-offs from them so i've been doing the uh the uh they didn't lead it was a code deal with somebody else like goldman sachs and the they're on the left side of them the uh uh every one of these little countries has enough warheads to blow the wall up 88 times right who's built a fallout shelter you know we stopped worrying about it and there's always something to worry about in the 50s it was depression and nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this century the stock market except for the 80s only slightly better these are only slightly better people didn't expect a lot we had okay it wasn't a great uh decade they just didn't expect much we made it through and uh stock market was terrific uh do you remember when oil went from four to forty remember that period oil went from four to forty and the expert said it was gonna go to a hundred and all the countries of the world gonna go bankrupt and then and the big banks go bankrupt and we're gonna have a great depression and the stock markets go down and you're gonna wind up selling pencils and apples you know the uh well i'm going to oil one from four to forty and the experts said it was gonna go 100.
within two years oil was at 14 the experts now much higher paid at this point are saying it's gonna go to four and we have a depression and people believe it again you know the uh i remember when the money supply was growing too fast he said we're gonna have a depression that was going too slow we're gonna have a depression remember the ldc debt remember the ldc that all the banks our banks are very smart they lend all their net worth to zimbabwe and botswana and bova salon and all these countries chile a lot of times they can't pronounce his chase manhattan and chemical and manifest hanover these countries weren't doing so well then they were called undeveloped countries or less developed countries now you have to call them emerging countries it's not politically correct to call anybody an undeveloped country it's like i just found out the other day that the term for somebody that's overweight is laterally challenged you have to see those laterally challenged yeah but these are ldc debt they're all going to go bankrupt and we're going to have a depression uh then the mideast was going on in the world remember that one the middle east around the world they weren't going to buy our bonds and market crashing would have depression then japan was going on the road man that one japan was going to have all the assets and they weren't going to buy our bonds and we're going to have depression within three years the nikai dial had gone from 40 000 to 16 thousand the banking system's in trouble and people said japan was going to collapse and we're gonna have a depression i mean people like on their prayer list the other day they eliminated triple children mother teresa they're praying for japan i mean you know it's a country with a 15 savings rate you know some bizarre you know commercial real estate global warming uh you know and i think it's the older you get the more nerves you get about these things i think it's very valuable i think while younger people are better investors is they're not worried they haven't heard about all these crises and they're with children i think if you don't have any kids you gotta rent some kids for the weekend you know get a seven-year-old and ask if he knows about the money supply you know how fast his phone is asking he knows about the shape of the yield curve is the wrong shape the heel curve or that we're 48.3 months into the economic recovery and the average recovery is less 52.3 bills you know ask an eight-year-old if they know about that eight-year-olds have a very high expectation about the next 20 years that's what you need to do the more you get away from eight goals the more you wait for 11 goals the more you start reading these crazy things you read over the weekend the uh in fact from 1955 to 1985 the stock market uh went up a grand total of a thousand points but it was down 800 on mondays it was down it was there for up 1800 on non-mondays it wasn't an accident the stock market went down october the 19th 87 was a monday people over the weekend become economists and portfolio strategists you know i mean they're a bull if they take their lunch on the way to work you know in fact i knew very well the market was going down in october of 1987 uh dave ellson remembers my first vacation has been taken six years and we started ireland and uh we stayed all these little cottages and play golf and i left on thursday after the close of trademark was down 55 points which wasn't a good start but it was down 55 points and we got over there and because of the time zone we're able to do what we want to do and get down to cork and called in the market was down about 118.
i said carolyn if the market was down on monday we'd better go back we're already here so uh i'll stay for the weekend so as you know the market went down uh 508 on monday so i flew home because of my funding i think from 13 billion to 9 billion in two working days and i uh it was uh the trend here is not positive like i could do something about it you know you know the uh but there's time when they call it they wanted to say well what's doing right now well he's on the 10th hole he's even part of the front nine but you know he's in a trap right now this could be a double bug this could be a quadruple buggy right here could could blow the entire front nine right here you know this is not what they want to hear you know uh so i have no idea when the market's gonna go down and uh no idea when it's gonna go up i'm totally shocked the market was four thousand two and a half years ago a little while ago it's eight thousand uh i had no idea about this uh very surprising to me but i'll guarantee you the mark will be a lot higher in 15 years it'll be a lot higher in 25 years what it's going to do next one or two years i don't have any idea and if somebody in this room knows about it they're not telling anybody or they're not in this room they're down in palm springs somewhere you know they've made a billion dollars or if they know anything about interest rates there's an interest rate if you can be right five times in a row and ten grand you can have two billion there's not that many people with two billion there's a lot of people predicting interest rates do you ever think about that one yeah just five times right around 10 grand it uh if you write sometimes a row you can have the gnp of uh you know the united kingdom you know it's a big number at the uh so i don't worry about that i know we've had uh 96 years a century and the market's fallen 53 times with 53 declines of 10 or more so 53 declines in 96 years once every two years we have a 10 decline of the 53 declines 15 1 5 have been 25 more so 15 and 96 years but once every six years the market falls 25 percent that's we call a bear market you know you know that and it's going to happen i don't care when it's battling i would love to know i obviously would be very useful to know when it's happening it doesn't make a difference to me corbett probably a lot higher eight years from now a lot higher 16 years now a lot higher 30 years from now that's what i deal with i'll be glad to answer your questions it's great enjoyed it and want to start the questions they don't get the question i'll read the calendar of offerings for freeman billings do you like international stocks uh uh the question is i always i found i was better overseas than i was domestic because it's just less coverage there's less people following these companies so i think my big theory and i think it's valid if you look at 10 companies you'll find one that's mispriced you look at 20 you'll find two you look at 100 you'll find 10.
the person that turns over the most rocks wins the game overseas the numbers are much better it's just not that much coverage so i think international stocks are definitely worth looking at when do you sell stocks when you sell stock is exactly the reason you buy it you write down the reason you bought it i bought subaru super was a distributor they didn't make any they didn't actually make the cars i think it was fuji heavy industries made the cars they distributed subarus in the united states the stock was uh i think the stock was 80.
it was up from six to eighty i was a little late on this but i didn't bother me and i should never let that bother you i didn't let it bother me they had forty dollars a share in cash did a very low price car was well liked we did well for about five or six years in selling the stockholm media 320. the reason i sold subaru thank you the reason i sold super is hyundai came in with a low-cost car chrysler caught the cut the price on the horizon ford came out with a low price car at the end also the super was no longer unique so if the car is not a buy the stock's not a buy that's what you're looking for the reason you buy a stock you keep it posted if the reason changes you go onto something else
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