저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 거시경제 우려와 무관하게 주택·제조 아웃소싱 등 산업별 순풍이 있는 종목(KB홈, 제이빌)에 투자 기회가 있다는 주장. 거시 환경: 연준 금리 인하 여부나 탄핵 이슈와 무관하게 국내 경제는 튼튼하며, 세계 무역 문제를 제외하면 긍정적이라고 봄. KB홈: 고부채 때문에 주택주 중 가장 미움받는 종목이지만, 최근 약 71% 상승. 저렴한 입문형 주택에 특화되어 주택 시장 핫 구간의 수혜를 받는다고 평가. KB홈 CEO 인용: 낮은 모기지 금리, 강한 경제성장, 높은 소비자 신뢰, 긍정적 인구통계 속에서 수요 견조하나 공급 부족. 매출 기준 24% 성장 및 올해 초 주택 과잉 공포가 해소되었으며 주택업체 중 가장 높은 매출총이익률이라고 언급. 젊은 가족의 주택 구매 여력(어포더빌리티)이 유지될 것이라 봄. 제이빌: 5G, 사물인터넷, 헬스케어, 전자상거래 등 여러 산업의 위탁생산 기업. 포장 축소와 친환경 트렌드, 5G 인프라 수요가 모두 순풍으로 작용한다고 봄. 헬스케어 제조 분야 선도 지위 언급. 주택 경기는 경제의 약 10%를 차지하며 주택 강세장은 자동차 산업 부진에도 전체 경제를 끌어올릴 수 있다고 주장. 두 종목 모두 잘 운영되고 흠이 없으며 이해하기 쉬운 단순한 기업이라 강조. 오늘처럼 이런 종목이 유리하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
even on a not so hot day we have some very powerful positive tailwind you just have to know where to look for them for example every time I see an earnings report from a company that is your exposure to China I get excited because many of these companies have tail winds that are totally separate from the porter economy the so called macro that's talked about endlessly as captured by surveys and sentiment and blather from the Federal Reserve not everybody's hostage to the background some industries have their own tailwind and you can still make a lot of money simply by identifying these trends and knowing which way the wind blows let's just steel casing Herman Miller before now I want you to consider the cases of KB Homes and a company called Jay bill here are two companies I've always been very fond of even though they've never been market dollars compared to their peers KB Homes is in fact the most hater of the home voters thanks to his very high debt position yet the underdog stock is now up more than 71% fourth year that's even better than Taylor Morrison because it's positioned itself as a major player in the hottest part of the housing market relatively inexpensive starter homes as for chaebol this is a gigantic contract manufacturer company it makes things for other businesses whether talking about health care consumer packaged goods ecommerce 5g or energy or retail when you order something online there's a good chance Jay bill helped you with the packaging you need some hardware for 5g wireless Jabil of first dibs on manufactured healthcare on the wrist Jay bow despite all the doom and gloom about the broader economy the truth is that our domestic economy away from the world trade issue is very healthy and that's good news for these two companies and by the way this is not necessarily going to be affected by the Fed it's not gonna be because the Fed wants to cut rates it's not gonna be affected by even the impeachment stuff I want you to listen this quote from Jeffrey masters the chairman and CEO of kbh he says marketing ditions remain favorable supported by low mortgage rate interest rates strong economic growth high consumer confidence and positive demographic trends while demand is healthy supply continues to be insufficient to meet home buyers needs particularly at affordable price points where we operate which is our key element of our success simple precise making money for you given the KB home assualt 24% network growth and the housing glut from earlier in the year has now run off remember that that was when everyone was so scared he stops we told you please don't be scared of them well you've got higher gross margins and more wrong way than I've seen from the home builders in ages what's really in play is affordability for young families and that's going to stay because the mortgage rates are so low all right how about Jade will they think about what they manufacture 5g is in its infancy the Internet of Things is exploiting the need for less packaging the police environment environmental is now a must those themes all play to Jay bill stress put it all together and I think that to many of these windbags who opine about the Fed are missing the big picture housing is 10% of the economy and it punches above its weight a bull market in housing can drive up the whole economy even when the auto industry is floundering like it is now as for table assembling products that they've was designed by other companies on a drawing board that's only accelerated in other words the tail winds from the economy right now triumph over the headwinds that fill the headlines but you'd have to read the conference calls from these two former near duels to know that but both Jay bill and KB Homes are very good very well-run and they got no flaws in them both are easy to understand they're not beyond me which trades on use of contracts like the tentative one with McDonald's and they're not peloton today's bus which traded off sales not earnings they're not micron which is going down after the close because the worries about gross margin there's simple easy stories no Jay bill and KB Homes they're boring their per sec American companies besides the combers silver package good plays on a day like today that's what works people I don't you overthinking this as I keep saying you do not need a weatherman to know which way the tail wind blows stick quick
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