Ray Dalio: Gold's Rise, Dollar Devaluation Fears, and 1970s Parallels

요약 보기

달리오는 법정화폐 신뢰 약화와 부채 구조로 인해 금이 장기 가치저장 수단으로 유리하다고 주장한다. 1750년 이후 세계 화폐의 80%가 사라지거나 가치가 크게 하락했다고 언급하며, 중앙은행의 금 다변화 움직임이 수급 균형을 바꾼다고 설명한다. 달러는 최근 주요 통화바스켓 대비 약 10% 하락했고, 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 위험과 1985년 플라자 합의 유사 환율 개입 가능성을 언급한다. 그는 다른 통화들도 크게 절상되기 어려워 금이 상대적으로 더 나은 성과를 낼 것이라고 본다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in terms of real purchasing power for your portfolio. For thousands of years, people have liked gold and people still seem to like gold. Prices of gold are going up. Why are people so interested in owning gold in a time like this? um as they say uh since 1750 um 80% of the world's monies have disappeared and all of those that existed have been greatly devalued.

02. That's one of the reasons that gold is one of is a storehold of wealth and has been for a long time. And there's a saying that gold is the only asset that you can have that's not somebody else's liability. And what they mean by that is that you don't have to re receive money from somebody else. In the world that we're now in, and we're seeing it internationally, there's a worry about sanctions.

03. There's a worry about taking gold. Those holders, central banks around the world are concerned about the possibility that let's say what happened to Russia could happen to them and so on. So there's a diversification of that and and and it creates a dynamic in and of itself because what happens is if they are switching and they are switching um to to gold away from bonds and so on then that has the effect of not only making our supply demand balance that we're talking about about the new deficit.

04. It means that you can have the selling of gold which makes that supply demand balance worse. Now it used to be the case that the US dollar was backed by gold and US government said if you don't like these pieces of paper we'll give you gold and ultimately we we ended that we're never going to go back to that presumably right you know um probably presumably that's right but not if you watch these gold s these cycles that because you have the devaluation then um people feel don't have confidence in the fiat system over a period of time and through history they've at that point the way that works is you print all this money then you pay the debt with the cheap money and then but nobody wants to hold it so then they go back and link it again it is conceivable that you can see a relinking of gold to money but that's way in the future

05. since the beginning of this year the dollar against the basket of currencies is down about 10% in value Um, and many people are worried that they might continue that way, be devalued. Some people say it's not a bad thing because we can buy u things where you can sell things more cheaply overseas and increase our exports.

06. But if people are worried about the dollar going down in value, what would you suggest they do? Buy other currencies or go buy things that are not dollar denominated? I uh I think the um picture would be some version the their concern would be some version very similar to the 70s you just talked about.

07. I remember I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 15, 1971. And that is when Richard Nixon got on the television and he said in his polite way, this was a wonderful move, but the money that you thought you had and the gold was money. Um, and what at the time people thought were real, the money that we're used to, they would say are like checks in the checkbook.

08. They said, "You're not going to get your money. You can keep the checks." At that po point then we began the 70s and the 70s was a period in which there was both stagflation. The thing that we have to worry about is a stagflationary environment because all the currencies went down. So when we're looking at diversification the problems that we're talking about are not just American problems.

09. We have a significant problem but if we they're European problems they're they're Japanese problems. There's Chinese problems. No, there's we've lived on promises to be able to take that dead asset and convert it into money. And now there's not enough money to go around. So I would say um that when you ask the question, would I the value in relationship to other currencies?

10. Probably. But the other currencies won't want much of an appreciation. And so that's why I'm saying that something like gold will be the better performing currency. Some people worry about this and can tell us whether this is realistic or not. In 1985, there was something called the Plaza Accords where the United States government uh agreed with other governments uh that we were going to devalue the dollar illegally, officially and it was done in secret.

11. Nobody knew it was coming. Is that a possibility that the government of the United States could again agree with other governments we're going to devalue the dollar further or you think that's unlikely?