저자: EthanFlynn · 외국인
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달리오의 부채 death spiral 경고와 정부 재정적자 확대(2025년 FY 적자 1조달러 근접)를 소개하며, 금리 인하에도 10년물 금리가 상승해 모기지 금리가 내려가지 않는다고 설명. 스태그플레이션 가능성을 언급하지만 금리 방향은 누구도 확신할 수 없으며, 현재 금리 기준으로 의사결정하라고 조언. 모기지 가정(assumption) 등 금리 인하 우회 방법도 소개.
다듬은 글
now in the private markets credit markets we talk about a debt death spiral and a debt death spiral is that part of the cycle when the debtor needs to borrow money in order to pay debt service and it accelerates and then everybody sees that and they don't want to hold the debt that's where we're approaching how soon before we get there then if you are interested in all and where mortgage rates are heading you may even actually think you know where mortgage rates are going you're going to want to pay attention to this Ray D is suggesting that the US government is getting close to defaulting on their debt and having to do things they would never have to normally do you are going to see shocking developments in terms of how that's going to be dealt with things that may not have happened in our lifetimes but things that have happened throughout history so in order to understand mortgage rates and where we're heading we need to understand that it's all based on the ability for the federal government to borrow money and what their interest rate is so how concerned are you about the accelerating pace of government borrowing and the borrowing cost which will affect families in the form of higher mortgage rates yeah you know uh we we don't comment on fiscal policy other than to say as my predecessors have said that the US federal budget is on an unsustainable path uh well you know we have have seen the Federal Reserve already cut rates by 75 basis points but the 10year treasury yields have been rising uh so the Federal Reserve is not lowering the mortgage rate and the reasoning for that uh could be that we have very high budget deficit I know what you're thinking well doge is coming in and they've been halfhazard cutting surely that's causing a dent in the deficit hey Brian so for all the talk in Washington recently of cutting federal spending we have yet to see any of that show up in the official data treasury's latest statement uh shows that overall spending hit a record high for the month of February and spending and the overall deficit are both now at all-time highs for the first five months of the fiso year so the deficit today is about 177% bigger than it was this time last year and that's due to spending up at nearly every agency you'll be shocked to find that the deficit this year is much worse than both last year and the year before we have already hit $1 trillion deficit for this year now according to both Scott bessent Ray doio we're running a deficit about 7% to GDP it really needs to be about 3% to GDP what that means is probably the max deficit you can run in a year is 1 trillion if you want to get this on firm ground we've already hit $1 trillion for fiscal year 2025 in the federal government this year is already a bust but Scott bessent has a plan they're they're cutting employees as fast as they can in the federal government cuz right now we have excess employment in the government and those people uh can be moved to the private sector you know when you say that we're in a when we're in a period of detox you use that word on CMB last week is that a euphemism for recession uh not not at all doesn't have to be because it it'll depend on how quickly the Baton gets handed off you know our our goal is to have a smooth transition but I I tell you Sarah the easy thing the easy thing for us to have done would have been to come in and just keep this massive spending level going and it's unsustainable but you could we have kept it going for a year two years maybe even four maybe but you're risking a financial Calamity check this chart out now this was Anna Wong reposting this but this was from the University of Michigan data and you can see it's starting to feel like there may be a recession people are feeling like they're going to lose their jobs they're very concerned about it the problem is at the same time we're starting to see inflation expectations un Anor and move higher now there's a term for this it's called stagflation we could have higher interest rates and be in a recession at the same time that is a very real possibility Diane good to see you good to be here um so let's just I guess Define our terms here what we're looking for in the way of stagflation I guess you know essentially risks on both the growth and the inflation side that might keep the FED static for a while exactly so the economy is slowing there's no question about that and in fact the drag from government spending we know that cuts to social programs and transfers to nonprofits contracts all of that ripples through the overall economy that's dampening growth it fed's also worried about is this time around we have this muscle memory and you saw it in the nfib index as well we recently raised prices in the 2010s we not only had well anchored inflation expectations they were set in cement now we've been through a period where not only do consumers expect some level of inflation but we saw in the nfib index that actually the highest number number of small businesses are raising prices already and that is you know something they didn't do in the past so since 202 we have massive tension in the mortgage Market two weeks ago I was convinced that we would see a five handle this year now today I'm convinced that we might see mortgage rates in the eight I just don't know and neither do you and neither does the Federal Reserve or Trump and his team even though they're actively working levers they can pull to reduce rates so if you are thinking about buying or selling and if you are trying to factor in mortgage rates into your decision the best thing you can do is use the rates you have today and the tools you have today and make a decision based on that speculating on where rates will go will not help you you do not know they could go to eight they could go to Five I don't know I wish I did I wish I was naive enough to think that I knew I sat in a room full of real filters about a year and a half ago that were so sure that mortgage rates would be dropping that they were talking about arms and all these products that they could offer their buyers and it all turned out to be very predatory because loow and behold mortgage rates never dropped I think if you want a lower mortgage rate there are ways to do that talked about mortgage assumption I helped somebody just a month ago get a 2 and a half% mortgage on a house we paid fair market value for it they didn't pay any additional I just got a contract help some else get in contract for a mortgage in 2 and a qu% it's crazy they're going to get a 2 and a qu% mortgage so it is possible to get mortgage assumptions and get a lower rate but the fact is is that if you need to speculate on where mortgage rates are going to go you are playing a very dangerous game the number one danger about buying a house is being reactive when you have to buy or when you have to sell don't be reactive if the rate is lower than what your current mortgage is you should refinance don't wait for it to drop further go ahead and refinance there's no restriction on you refinancing again just make sure you're factoring in the cost of the refi and either getting it covered by taking a higher rate or knowing what the payback period is with the monthly payment you're saving and with that I hope you guys have a great rest of the day listen be careful out there if you are thinking about buying a house I hope people in Nashville would love to help you I look forward to seeing you next Saturday thanks a lot
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