저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Ray Dalio는 현재 시장 사이클이 1930~45년 대공황기와 유사한 구조적 전환기에 있다고 주장한다. 핵심 근거는 세 가지다. 첫째, 대규모 화폐 발행과 부채로 인한 인플레이션 압력이다. 통화량이 약 25% 이상 늘었고 금리가 제로 근처까지 내려가 추가 금리 인하 수단이 없다고 설명한다. 둘째, 미국 내 극심한 부의 격차와 정치적 양극화로 법치와 헌법 질서가 위협받는다고 본다. 셋째, 중국과 러시아 등 새로운 강대국의 부상으로 세계 질서 재편 경쟁이 진행 중이며 무역·기술·지정학·자본·군사 전쟁이 동시에 진행된다고 본다. 1971년 닉슨의 금태환 중단을 1933년 루스벨트의 금 몰수와 비교하며, 당시 금 가격 하락 후 주식이 상승했던 역사적 패턴을 언급한다. 미국은 생산보다 소비가 많고 인프라 투자와 교육에 소홀하며 차세대에 부채를 떠넘기고 있다고 비판한다. 재정적자는 GDP의 5~6% 수준이며, 이를 메우기 위해 국채를 대량 매도해야 하는 구조라고 설명한다. 부채 보유자와 채권자 간 이해 충돌이 심화되고, 인플레이션을 통한 실질 부채 축소가 사실상의 과세 수단이 된다고 본다. 구매력 손실에 대응해 자산 보유 방식을 재검토해야 한다고 강조한다. 구체적 종목이나 가격 목표에 대한 언급은 없고, 거시 구조와 장기 사이클에 대한 견해가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
I'm a global macro investor betting how the world's going to go 1971 the United States had paper bills that were like checks in a checkbook they didn't have any value but what they would do is they get you gold because the U.S wrote more checks and it had gold in the bank the gold was going down and on August 15 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I watched Nixon said they're not going to get your gold so it defaulted and I went on the floor of the stock exchange and I said wow this is a crisis and I thought it would go down on the stock market and it went up a lot and so I researched it and I found that on March 5th 1933 the exact same thing happened Roosevelt announced that they were not going to get the gold and that they would go off that and that they would print a lot of money and they printed a lot of money and what I realized at that time and saw many times since that anything that surprised me may not have happened in my lifetime but happened before I studied the Great Depression because I did that I was able to anticipate the two 2008 financial crisis we made a lot of money in the financial crisis because I understood what happened in the Great Depression so in this case three big things are happening that never happened before in our lifetimes and the last time they happened was in the 1930 to 45 period and those three things are the creation of a lot of printing of money to pay for the debts we needed to at the time but it was very overdone we actually sent out checks which were about five times as much as the amount that would have compensated people for their losses where'd they get the money from the government borrowed the money who did they borrow the money from the Federal Reserve what they did is to reserve Prince the money and they buy the debt and that's how it works so now everybody gets all these checks and everybody's happy because they get all these checks but when they get all this money and then they spend it everybody's surprised they got inflation we've increased the amount of money by 25 percent or more what has happened the price of anything is equal to the amount of money and credit spent on it divided by the quantity of its old and so when you increase the amount of money and credit buying power spending by a lot more than you increase the quantity you get inflation what happened in both of those cases is they hit zero interest rates so I can't lower the price of money so what do I do number two is the amount of internal conflict that's going on in the United States the size of the wealth gaps the size of the political conflicts is the greatest since not only the 30 to 45 period it's much greater than that 1900.
you have to go back to 1900 to have that conflict we're having a form of a civil war where populism is one side in a battle with the other side that won't accept losing that's why in the next elections there's a good chance that neither side will accept the result and accept losing history shows that when the cause as people are behind are more important to them than the system the system is in Jeopardy right now there's not much agreement and the polarity is becoming greater the political right now if you follow politics if you even watch events like you know what will the reaction be to Supreme Court making decision of Roe versus Wade why are moderates in the political system choosing not to run for re-election we have this internal conflict that is actually threatening rule of law and the adherence to the Constitution it's entirely possible that people with different views they will go to different places and they will fight so that degree has never happened in my lifetime before I was born in 1949 1945 was when the New World Order began these World orders happen because there's a conflict and then somebody wins so that brings me to the third thing that's happening which is the rise of a great power to be comparable China and with it Russia and they form alliances right there's the Allied Paris the access powers two different sides kind of and then they're competing because what happens is when you have a new world order the winners of the war get to set the rules so in 1945 America won and it was the richest country in the world it had 80 percent of the world's gold and gold was money and it had 50 of the world's economy and it had a monopoly on military power and so it set the rules and that's why the U.N is in New York and the World Bank and IMF are in Washington DC it set the rules so that's changing there are certain things that we're doing we're spending a lot more than we're earning we're living off the printing presses we're letting the infrastructure go we're giving our next Generation debts we're not educating all children well and we have a world order battle there is an Allied and access power kind of thing that is emerging there's certainly a competition there are five different kinds of Wars there's a trade War there's a technology War there is a geopolitical influence War there's a capital war and there could be a military war there is a military war now in Europe with Russia and those are the patterns of history and there's only one way to do well and that is to be strong in all those ways so I'm very bipartisan I believe the opposite of the polarity the extremes of the left to the right I pray for the middle and bipartisanship to find ways I've watched the process evolved in the cycle so what happens is you have the war you have the new rules Wars are sort of great equalizers and then you come back and then you have a period of peace and prosperity you have peace because nobody wants to fight the dominant power and you have four equal people and then they have Prosperity but the way the system works is over a period of time that creates differences in wealth and that's fine you Provide Capital that's the capital system people with great ideas come along and they're productive and inventive and they produce great things and so on but as they obtain the Great greater wealth they also obtain greater benefits like they could educate their children better and if you're poor you don't get to educate your children better and so the polarity increases and it becomes unfair because you know we all should have like equal opportunities and then you also build up a lot of debt here's the irony of it as these Cycles begin at their later stages the rich are the ones who get into debt and now you would think it's exactly the opposite it's easier to have a good living standard and safe but like the United States when per capita income was 40 times that in China it started to borrow from China because they have a big saving mentality when you have a poor person who doesn't have much they want to save their saving is in our currency because when they think oh how do I save in world currency I'm going to buy dollar denominated debt and I'm going to save in it when we borrow and that's been the case we didn't experience what our prior Generations experience I know my dad went through World War II he went through depression and War his men mentality is very different in terms of you know what you take for granted or how you save and that creates a cycle one man's desert somebody else's assets the world right now is holding a lot of money in debt instruments it could be money market funds it could be bond funds and we were in an environment in which bonds went up for 40 years and everybody's comfortable and there wasn't an inflation pressure and so everybody thinks that cash is the safest place to be because they don't think about its buying power and so what happens is you have to satisfy both the debtors and the creditors which is difficult to do when you've got more okay you got a lot of debt because if you pay that debt back in real money in hard money so the guy gets paid back the buying power that he led that is going to be really bad because you won't have enough money so the easiest tax is to tax through the printing of money that's because like nobody asks where did the money come from you know the checks came in and we're all happy and we didn't take the money away from anybody but you lose the buying power so as you get the inflation for that you get the behavior change so still like you have to make a choice do you want to own that stuff or not and so what happens is when you make that choice that you don't want to own it you sell it and so the amount of selling is not just the deficit the government will have a deficit of five or six percent of GDP it'll have to borrow so that means it sells bonds or sells debt of five or six percent of GDP
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