저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD 1분기 실적(매출 38%↑ 103억달러, EPS 40%↑, FCF 26억달러)은 우수하나, 경영진의 장기 성장 전망 상향이 주가 급등의 핵심 근거. 데이터센터 매출 57%↑(58억달러)로 사업 비중이 데이터센터로 이동. 내재가치는 약 180→280달러로 상향됐으나 시장가 415달러는 여전히 크게 상회. 선행 PER·P/OCF가 2023년 이후 최고 수준 부근으로 밸류에이션 부담. 투자의견은 보유 유지.
다듬은 글
AMD stock is soaring . In part one of my deep dive into AMD stock, I'll discuss the reasons why AMD stock is soaring, how I'm revising results, and how I'm updating my buy, hold, or sell rating on AMD. , AMD's revenue in the first quarter wasn't all that explosive, increasing 38% year-over-year to 10.3 billion.
Earnings per share grew by more than 40% and free cash flow more than tripled to a record 2.6 billion. Now, these are excellent results, but these results alone do not justify the big share price increase. What did justify the big share price increase is the management team's forecast for the longer term.
As we're going to see in future parts in this deep dive, it was that longer term forecast that was the real justification for the big share price increase. AMD's management team had provided investors a longer term outlook on how they feel about the CPU market, the GPU market, and the company themselves, and their overall compounded annual growth rate expectations, and they revised all of those figures higher in just a few months, right?
The last time they provided that big outlook was in November. So, since November until today, uh what are we? May 5th was when they made this new outlook available to investors. The trajectory was so significantly improved, more than double for the CPU market trajectory. And so, those longer term forecasts really drove AMD's share price higher.
The management team CEO Lisa Su specifically said the data center is now the primary driver of their revenue and earnings growth. And as AI adoption scales, demand is increasing not only for accelerators, but also for the high-performance CPUs that power and orchestrate those workloads. And this is true.
I will tell you that since let's say late last year, there's been a broadening out of demand for components in the data center. Before that, let's say, you know, 12 months ago or even 9 months ago, the primary driver of demand in the data center was still the GPU, right? And that's where Nvidia dominated.
But since that moment, since 9 months ago, since the adoption of the agentic workflows, we've seen a broadening out of demand. First, we saw it in memory prices, right? Companies like Micron, which benefited significantly from soaring memory prices and soaring demand for memory. And then and around the same time, we saw soaring demand for CPUs.
And so now we're seeing demand in the data center expanding beyond the GPU and entering into these new categories, these new components that were always a part of the data center, but not as important a part in the data center. But now they're taking more importance, and that's why companies like AMD, Micron, SanDisk, etc., etc.
are experiencing these share price gains while companies like Nvidia have stagnated a little bit because their importance in the data center is reducing. Now, we'll see what Nvidia has to offer when they report quarterly financial results later in May. But, so far Nvidia has been stagnating. Well, their share price is increasing as well, but not increasing as much as some of these other companies.
AMD's data center revenue in the most recently completed quarter jumped by 57% to a record 5.8 billion. And this is also another positive for AMD stock investors. Is now the business is weighted more towards the data center and less towards its other segments, which are not growing and are not expected to grow, especially in the second half of this year.
And those segments include the gaming segment, which the management team is forecasting a significant decline in the back half of this year. And the PC market, which the management team is also forecasting the decline in the back half of this year. But, thankfully those parts, those segments are less important to AMD given how significantly the data center segment is increasing.
So, after accounting for the latest adjustments from the management team and the revisions higher for their growth rates over these next few years, I revised higher my intrinsic value calculation, well, indirectly, right? I revised higher how much cash flow I expect AMD will generate between 2026 and the very long run.
And I revised higher by about 500 million my free cash flow expectation in 2026, about 1 billion in 2027, another 1.2 billion in 2028, and another 2 billion for 2029 and beyond. So, these are meaningful revisions higher in my expected free cash flow for the company following their updates on what they believe they will generate in growth over this foreseeable future.
And AMD's management team is has been historically a reliable management team, right? These are um the CEO and their forecasts have been relatively reliable. It's not like Tesla or something like that which consistently over promises giving you, you know, trillion-dollar numbers and just throwing out big numbers and then underwhelming when they actually report results.
AMD hasn't been like that. So, when AMD gives you that kind of guidance as an analyst, you can take that for relatively accurate as far as their long-term guidance. And so, I used those updates and the intrinsic value jumped from around $180 per share up to $280 per share. Still, the market price has soared by so much that it's still well above the intrinsic value per share at $415.
Similarly, when you look at the market multiples, the forward price to earnings at 58.15, I'm sorry, the forward price to operating cash flow at 58.15 is near the highest it's been going all the way back to January of 2023. And similarly, the forward price to earnings at 42 is near the highest it's been also going all the way back to January.
So, the valuation is now near the most expensive it's been whether I'm measuring on a discounted cash flow basis or whether I'm measuring on a market multiples basis. So, for that reason, while this was an excellent quarter by any stretch of the imagination, by any form of measurement, this was an excellent quarter for AMD, the share price, the market price, I think already reflects a lot of these positive outlooks from the management team across its various segments.
So, I've had this stock rated as a hold coming into the earnings result. And after the earnings result, while it was very positive, you saw my revision higher for the fair value, extremely positive, but still the market price is well above my intrinsic value. So, I'm keeping this stock rated as a hold.
But, before you make a decision on AMD stock, I recommend you watch all of the videos in this deep dive series. The next part in this series is popping up on your screen. Click that link and I'll see you over there shortly.
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