저자: Chris · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인·나스닥은 단기 횡보 속 상승 가능성이 있으나 달러 약세 시 하락 리스크도 있어 방향성은 불확실하다. 달러 지수: 고용·실업수당 지표가 강해 단기 달러 강세 신호. 지금은 횡보 레인지이며, 118~120 방향 상승 가능성을 본다는 견해. 다만 대형 헤드앤숄더가 완성되면 달러가 크게 하락해 위험자산에 우호적일 수 있다는 장기적 시나리오도 제시. 나스닥: 이중 천장 형태와 갭 메움 여부를 주시. 1450 아래로 이탈 시 추가 하락 가능, 그 전까지는 상승 랠리 지속 가능성. 비트코인: 4시간 봉 레인지 안에 있으며 상단 31,300 돌파 시 32,500, 하단 이탈 시 29,000 방향. 상승 삼각형 형태, 두 방향 모두 가능하다고 봄. 비트코인 파생: 미결제약정 94억 달러 수준, 펀딩비 양수(롱 비용 지불), 공포탐욕지수는 중립~약간 탐욕. 경제지표: 내일 비농업 고용, 다음 주 인플레이션(CPI)·PPI·소비자심리 발표 예정이며 시장은 데이터에 둔감하다는 진단. 출연자 전망: 채널 진행자 개인 견해로, 달러 강세·약세 시나리오에 따라 위험자산 방향을 조건부로 제시.
다듬은 글
and welcome back to bitcoin advisor's Channel my name is Chris bringing a t here from a lovely little Westlake Village California and yes BlackRock boss Larry Fink Praises Bitcoin for digitizing gold you never thought you'd hear it out of the horse's mouth especially since a couple of years ago I think he was poo pooing the whole idea of Bitcoin but needless to say we're going to take a look at Bitcoin the dollar NASDAQ we're going to take a look at some of the alt coins the underlying market dynamics and some of the economic data coming out today uh we we had what do we have ADP unemployment change so bullish for the dollar so hotter than expected and uh what else came out bullish for the dollar jobless claims continuing to come in lower than expected not good for pal in 25 minutes we get the s p Global Services PMI that'll be the last notch on the Belt but following up on the dollar the picture is becoming a bit more clear in my eyes but uh that's why I think it's really kind of important to understand where we are at in the context of the marketplace right so Bitcoin or sorry Dixie is in a bit of a sideways range here um compared to an uptrend or just a straight downtrend and we did call off the lows uh several drives of hidden bullish Divergence that's where the price is making lower lows and the RSI was making significantly higher lows needless to say um called the rally to the top side of the range got kicked back to the 618 and now we are kind of breaking the short-term downtrend to the upside still kind of giving us the bias that we're going to head up to this green box as long as we are a low below there pressure is on the downside and as soon as we break this box to the downside coming in at 102 28 I'd be looking for a quick move back to the bottom side of the range ultimately though I do believe that we're coming in alignment with a massive trend line here and so price is likely going to Glide its way onwards and towards this trend line and then it's going to be the break of this you know call it a massive head and shoulders call it a descending triangle um if it's a head and shoulders or a double shoulder head and then a double shoulder right as long as you don't get back above the the opposing shoulder call it the right shoulder there then uh you know pretty much a valid measure move and that's going to take us way way down for the dollar which would be absolutely bullish for you know risk assets as long as that Trend holds true and that would be way way down to the bottom side of the range and I um you know you know just just giving you my ideas and thoughts here on the market now the inverse of that which I would actually think would be more likely to happen unless they start printing money uh would be a rally up to 120 and that would be you know if the dollar wants to get bullish and you know start closing back above this area and you know the reason why Dixie ha you know is the strongest currency in the world right we got 10 000 nukes back in it and apparently people are de-dollarizing that's the latest hottest uh trend line topic but uh the dollar does give us some impetus or some bias for direction doesn't always hold true but when the dollar goes up risk assets tend to go down vice versa dollar goes down risk assets tend to go up as we've seen stock market take quite a bit of a rally checking in on NASDAQ still putting in this little double top we've been talking about here uh potential 786 reversal and we'll be keeping an eye on that first warning sign is the gap fill and any kind of a closure back below this pivot here at 1450 probably does initiate a little bit more downside maybe come tests retest the highs over here that's it for short term so as the dollar is rallying off some of the bullish news what do we have coming in tomorrow and next week I I really didn't catch what he said at the fomc meeting but apparently the market doesn't care and people are just in rally mode they're in you know Tech AI you know booming Market mode and uh Bitcoin is you know seeing the benefit of that at least in the short term I'll get into bitcoin price action in just a section just a second uh so finishing it up on Dixie the um you know more sideways and up uh is you know probably going to be okay for markets as the market as we've been consolidating in this range you'd seen uh you know risk assets really have a chance to Rally so that's just something to be aware of any other major economic dates not that I'm aware of I will check into it over the next couple of days um tomorrow more uh non-farm payrolls hourly earnings it really seems like the market isn't paying attention to economic data so all right let's get into bitcoin price action and we were working on this four hour range which we are still caught in uh you know in the range right now and again if you want to learn more about where we're at in the market um when it comes to structure I made this video actually I'll put a link in the description below here's what an uptrend is here's what a downtrend is and here is what a sideways Market consolidation feel free to watch the video below and you know get a little more educated 10 minutes or you can join courses uh Bitcoin 101 how to grow your crypto wealth just click Start here there is going to be a link in the description below as well and uh you know take 15 minutes a day and learn a little bit and uh grow your crypto wealth um let's see what else did I want to bring up all right so four hour range gets resolved to the upside you can see a ascending triangle forming here in these typically break when they are 75 percent full we're not quite there where would that line us up with somewhere tomorrow probably uh the July 23rd is that no that's that's Monday the 10th so this could drag on a bit longer as volatility is resetting and yeah essentially you want to see that green 55 get held up the more Taps the weaker it's going to get but vice versa as we are punching a sheet of glass to the top side at about 31 300 the more times we tap the upside there the more likely it is going to break to the upside and that lines you up right with that 32-5 Target and then to the downside is about 29 000.
and I would not be surprised for you know price action to do a little bit of both run it up there run it back down there and get all the liquidity out of the market speaking of that uh open interest is taking up slightly here at 9.4 billion is that correct 9.4 billion there funding rates are positive so you're paying to go long and the leverage ratio is taking down fear and greed index still relatively uh neutral but slightly greedy there and um that's it so nothing too heavy coming in tomorrow next week I'm just going to do a quick perusal to see if there's any major economic data as real in the beginning of Summer it's July 6th well it's halfway through summer if you if you don't count September is summer where you're at and I just want to see rate height wise when so inflation numbers come out Wednesday next week that'll probably be a big one and then PPI and consumer sentiments so you know some some economic news coming out next week I think we'll just take it level by level at this point waiting for the four hour range to break and again I do expect some selling pressure up here buying pressure up down here and uh with that said I will get back to you guys with some more updates this week have yourself a blessed and highly favored day and we will see you very soon take care
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