Fundstrat's Tom Lee is winning battle against inflation

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S&P500 중간 목표를 상향한 Tom Lee는 하반기 상승 여력이 있다고 본다. 주요 근거: 6월 CPI가 3%대로 하락해 연준 압박을 덜어줄 것이며, 생성형 AI 테마가 확산 중이고 상승 종목 비율(Advance-Decline line)이 사상 최고치를 기록했다고 설명했다. 시장 회의론에 대해: 금리 인상 사이클과 장단기 금리 역전 때문에 투자자들이 의심하는 것은 이해하지만, 현재는 '인플레이션과의 전쟁' 국면이라 연준이 경기를 죽이려는 것이 아니라 인플레이션을 잡으려는 중이며 이 싸움에서 연준이 이기고 있다고 봤다. 단기 전망: 상반기는 '한 걸음씩 전진하는' 장세였고 앞으로도 힘든 싸움이 될 것이나, 매수 대기 장세(buy the dip)가 이어져 불리장이 우위를 점하며 S&P500은 8~12% 추가 상승할 수 있다고 전망했다. 인플레이션 세부: 중고차 가격과 주거비 인플레이션은 둔화되고 있고 시간당 임금 상승률도 작년 절반 수준(약 4%)으로 떨어졌다. 서비스 인플레이션 중 금융서비스는 높은 금리 때문에 상승 중이고, 항공 여행은 계절성 문제가 2개월 내 해소될 것으로 보며, 외식은 까다로운 부분이라고 봤다. 연준 전망: 연준이 수요를 어느 정도 죽여야 한다는 시각 때문에 7월 추가 인상이나 올해 한 번 더 인상 가능성이 거론되지만, 6월 CPI 발표 후 헤드라인 CPI가 3%로 내려가면 연준의 대외 설명이 쉬워지고 25bp 단위 인상의 긴박성이 줄어들 것이라 평가했다. 출연자 관련 리스크: 금리 인상 누적 효과(500bp)가 아직 반영되지 않았다는 점이 남은 위험 요인으로 언급되었다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcomes good to see you again great to see you Scott so how time will you just raised your s p Target to 48.25 so you were a little too bullish last year and you think you're not bullish enough for this year yeah um yeah we we're at the midpoint of the year uh we took a look at what could happen in the next six months and I think there are some positive catalysts coming up including you know inflation next month the June CPI could fall to three percent it really takes the pressure off the FED we've got the generative AI story that I think is gaining traction and I know there's a lot of skepticism of this Market but Advanced decline line hit an all-time high last week so I think we build upon those gains and and we take we set new highs this year are you sympathetic to the skepticism that you say still exists why do you think people are still so skeptical of a rally you think can keep going quite substantially uh yeah I think I I understand why investors are skeptical because we're in a hike cycle and the curves inverted um but our view has been that this has been an inflation War so the fed's not trying to kill the economy it's trying to kill inflation and I I think they're winning uh we you know I think it is still gonna be a tough battle um you know first half was a game of inches it wasn't like the stocks went up every week but I I do think we're gonna buy the dip regime so I think it's still a street fight but the Bulls getting the upper hand and we gain maybe eight maybe as much as 12 do you think the FED thinks that you can can do one without the other in terms of killing inflation without killing the economy because every time you hear Jay Powell and whoever else related with the FED talk they mentioned how the labor market is still strong arguably too strong for their liking consumer is still too strong maybe for their liking and the economy itself is hanging in there I think a lot better than even they expected it would uh yes I I think the FED has an Optics issue because you know four percent inflation doesn't look good for them but the internals of inflation are really encouraging Goldman had a nice piece today looking at that and you know first of all used car prices which have been really pushing inflation are set to roll over that has nothing to do with the stock market housing is finally starting to kind of catch up and will start to reflect market prices that's rolling over that has nothing to do with the stock market the labor Market's cooled off a lot we'll get the jolts report this week but average hourly earnings have grown at half the rate it was last year and four percent that's that's where the FED would like it and and that has nothing to do with the stock market I understand but I mean it's the idea that Services inflation is still too sticky for the fed's liking has nothing to do with any of the things that you just mentioned that have come down a lot and that seems to be the problem that the FED has and why they're so apparently Resolute in the way they talk about what they're still going to do that's right yeah now seven items make up services and you know core Services X housing is is running actually a pretty decent rate right now like in the high twos but Financial Services is being inflated because of higher interest rates travel could have a seasonal problem that's being fixed um in the next two months because it was you know like when you look at things like Airline demand I mean their price prices are cooling even though it still looks like they're inflating and then restaurants is tough but you know that I don't know if the FED wants to kill the economy just to get restaurant prices down but they need to kill demand to some degree at least that's what they would suggest and that's what you know Jay Powell seems to uh refer to anytime he makes comments about what's going to be ahead hike in July maybe there's another hike this year all because they're not satisfied that they are full enough into what they would deem to be restrictive territory that's right I think that they're going to have an easier PR story after the June CPI comes out next week because headline CPI will be down to three now people can start to believe there's real progress because you've gone from nine to three on inflation and then they can argue that a lot of the 500 base points of hikes is still going to kick in so I don't know if there's the urgency to keep hitting with 25 basis point hikes