We're not going to have a severe recession: Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel

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결론: 현재 경기침체 가능성은 있으나 심각한 침체는 아니며, 시장은 실적 하향 조정 속에 변동성 있게 횡보할 가능성이 크다. 경기 상황: 1분기 GDP -1.6%, 2분기도 마이너스 성장이 예상되며 기술적 침체 정의(2분기 연속 감소)에 근접했다. 실질 소비 지표는 악화되었다. Siegel: 지금은 실제 침체이나 심각하지 않을 것이라 보며, 10년물 금리가 3% 아래로 떨어진 점과 원자재 가격 하락을 둔화 신호로 해석한다. 실업률 3.6%의 강한 노동시장이 완충 역할을 한다. 인플레이션: 원자재 가격 하락으로 인플레이션이 완화되고 있으며, 실질 구매력 침식은 여전히 진행 중이다. Bob Doll: 실적 추정치가 상반기처럼 계속 오르지는 않을 것이며, 하반기 시장은 실적 중심으로 움직이고 PER 부담은 줄어들 것으로 본다. 상승 직선보다는 등락이 크고 답답한 장세를 예상한다. 외부 충격: 중국 봉쇄, 전쟁 등 외부 변수에 시장이 취약하다는 데 동의하며, 유럽이 미국보다 더 어려운 상황이라고 언급한다. 완충 요인: 소비자는 아직 약 2조 달러의 초과저축을 보유 중이며, 노동시장도 다소 약화되었으나 견조하다. 따라서 침체를 당분간 늦출 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 실적 추정치 하향 폭, 전쟁·봉쇄 등 외부 충격, 인플레이션 재가속 가능성.

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01. professor siegel i really want to know whether it's guidance earnings revisions direction of gas prices what's that most important signal that you're going to be watching for in the second half of the year to determine whether we're heading into a serious recession or not well john i i think we're in a recession i mean the data this morning was very bad i mean not not on the inflation front but on real spending and uh the indicators that i look at uh the forecasters now say second quarter will also print a negative gp growth number as you know minus 1.6 in the first quarter now it is a technical definition it isn't followed by the national bureau exactly two consecutive quarters of declining real gdp generally signal a recession we don't know whether that is that a serious honestly that professor is why i said a serious recession what are you watching to see if it's like a really painful one or a a longer lasting one versus just a technical one well uh i mean we're it's a really it's a real one uh whether it's going to be shallow or deep yet to bc i mean listen we have to look at commodity prices i'm not surprised the ten-year drop below three i mean that's telling you really big slow down because with inflation in the 10-year below three uh commodity prices falling everywhere uh i don't think it's going to be a severe recession john but i i think that we are in a one of the most unique unusual recessions with unemployment 3.6 percent in a strong labor market yet demand and inflation is eating away at the purchasing power of the consumer right yeah um working to to move backwards more slowly perhaps for a lot of the population bob doll what about it is this market pricing in what you think is realistically likely to happen in the second half or is there still this idea out there priced in that uh earnings are are going to be higher earnings are the key is to to answer that question and uh i think most of us are now of the view that earnings aren't going to be continue to go higher as they did the first six months this year the question is how much lower do those estimates go i'm with a professor i i think it's shallow we don't have a playbook for this i don't think the nber will say we had a recession based on the technical first and second quarter i think it's going to be more about bumbling along as the market's likely to do uh with a lot of choppiness and volatility inflation probably is coming off commodity prices that we just as we just talked about so we're getting a little less inflation a little less earnings uh maybe that means the focus in the second half is more on earnings and less on pe that doesn't mean we go straight up but i think it can be uh bouncier and frustrating both the bulls and the bears that would be nice bob but how vulnerable is this market to an external shock like an extended you know china coveted lockdown that we got in the first half of the year that took a bunch of people for a loop i mean are we kind of like on tenuous ground that this is shallow and that we navigate well through it yeah tenuous is a good word i mean how how long does the war last uh what are the ramifications of it kovid you're absolutely right look as as the interviews that sarah did at the time at the bottom of the hour europe's facing a lot worse than we are here in in the us uh we'll we'll we'll manage our way through somehow don't forget consumers still have two trillion dollars of excess savings on their balance sheets that will cushion uh the inflation problem a bit and of course we still have a pretty strong labor market even though it's weakening somewhat so i think we'll make our way through here a bit longer i'm not saying no recession ever but i think we can push it off a bit here