저자: BillMiller및진행자 · 외국인
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비트코인은 FTX 사태 이후에도 장기적으로 유망한 새로운 화폐 기술이라는 낙관론이 중심이다. 비트코인 관련 주장: 레버리지 투기 세력은 대부분 정리됐고, 연말 이후 2024년 반감기를 앞두고 채굴 보상 감소로 공급이 줄어들 것이라고 전망한다. 법정화폐의 통화 부양 역사도 비트코인 수요 요인으로 언급한다. 가격 흐름 비교: 2020년 3월 저점 대비 시장은 약 70% 상승한 반면 비트코인은 약 190% 상승했다고 주장한다. 최근 한 달은 변동성이 시장보다 낮았다고 본다. 비트코인은 약 6~7만 달러에서 약 1.7만 달러로 하락한 상태다. 비트코인 자체에는 사기가 없고 24시간 거래되며, FTX·Celsius는 중앙화된 기업의 붕괴라고 구분한다. 펀드 보유 및 종목: 인컴 전략에 소량의 비트코인 관련주(마이크로스트래티지)를 보유 중이며, 개인적으로는 비중이 더 크다고 밝힌다. 코인베이스는 시가총액 약 70억 달러, 현금 약 50억 달러로 펀드에서 보유 중이며 CEO 브라이언 암스트롱을 높게 평가한다. 실버게이트: FDIC 보험 은행으로 예금 인출에 대응했으나 암호화폐 편중 문제가 있었고, 주가는 약 11달러로 하락했다. 유형자산 대비 저평가 상태이며 1년 뒤 유형장부가 수준(60~70% 상승 여지) 회복을 예상한다. 이 외 FTX 기업가치는 11월 둘째 주 약 320억 달러였으나 코인베이스는 현재 약 70억 달러 수준이라고 비교한다. 리스크: 비트코인은 최근 큰 폭으로 하락했으며, 변동성과 신뢰 문제가 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 비트코인에 대한 장기 낙관, 실버게이트 1년 내 반등 기대.
다듬은 글
guys look for good value I'd love to mention both of our favorite one of both of our favorite things here which is Bitcoin that is truly a new monetary technology what you've just seen with the FTX debacle you've seen all the leveraged hands and weak speculators that are operating on margin they've all been flushed out at this point and I think the word at the end of the year the Market's going to start looking towards 2024 when the Bitcoin miner rewards are halved right so Bitcoin becomes harder to produce at the margin and also people are going to start looking towards monetary stimulation which has been going on for hundreds of years in Fiat currencies so yeah that is a technology that we own heavily personally full disclosure and we are still very very optimistic about it over the coming decades so so yeah that is one in technology to be like a lot your confidence has not at all been shaken by clearly by FTX the fraud the fact that the fact that Bitcoin was so inflated by fraud speculation monetary stimulus all for Bubblicious type of things you can frame it as speculation or you can frame it as volatility in a new asset class and I think it's the latter um and so if you just look at it's been followed over long periods of time but it's a phenomenal store of value the network has never been stronger and more secure than it is today and so there's you know hundreds of millions of people around the world that own Bitcoin and growing and so we're still very optimistic about it as a technology and where it could go how much of the fund is Bitcoin or Bitcoin related at this point so in the income strategy we have a small portion of it in things tied to microstrategy which is the dominant leader in that technology um it's a small percentage but you know personally it's a lot bigger than a small percentage and and was in one of your in the competition that you guys do where you hold the hold stocks for the last year that that's a stock that tanked 43 percent yesterday after they gave an update of much bigger withdrawals tied to FDX then people were expecting layoffs and it was a terrible update are you still bullish on that stock yeah the reason it tanked was because I just I bought the stock personally the day before that so that's that's why it went down a lot that happens anytime I try and buy these sorts of things um we we bought some we bought you know Amazon we bought Amazon at the at the open uh when it when they when it uh came public we sold it after it doubled a year later we bought it back around 90 and it went to six but we kept buying it I think with the with silvergate so my group silvergate together with coinbase because we own uh we own coinbase in the in the fund we own um uh and I personally and then we also Own It On silvergate so but they're completely different sorts of things coinbase is more of a more of a direct play on the crypto space and I want to emphasize something that bill 4 said which is that Bitcoin and there's there's no fraud in Bitcoin uh you go back to the pandemic when the FED had to come in and there's a Scramble for liquidity and treasuries were being bid through the roof and everything else mortgage-backed Securities were collapsing and the FED had to come in and clean those markets by just injecting massive amounts of liquidity Bitcoin trades 24 7 365.
there was no it wasn't even the hiccup in the Bitcoin in the Bitcoin Market that's the FTX collapse that was a centralized uh Enterprise as with Celsius and I think that it's very important to understand that Bitcoin is dramatically different from that somebody said to me the other day so Bitcoin has been really really terrible and uh and because it was 60 70 000 and now it's like 17 000 and I said well let's look at it here this way when on the market low in March of of 2020 um the market was around 2300 and Bitcoin was around five and a half thousand and so since the market low through last week the Market's up 70 percent and Bitcoins up 190 so as Bill three a bill four said it's it has been more volatile except for recently in the past month or so it's been less volatile than the market so you know I I I'm optimistic on all those things I mean a coinbase so coinbase has a seven billion dollar market cap it's got five billion dollars in cash this bonds yields 15 and I think that I think that Brian Armstrong is an excellent CEO it's it's much broader than silvergate which is actually an FDIC insured bank and interestingly enough silvergate now trades has about an 18 tangible book the stock is 11.
um it was silvergate was I think around 130 a year ago and now it's 11. um they met all of their deposit uh withdrawals uh relatively easily they said a very liquid balance sheet their their tangible common equity ratio is higher than JP Morgan's uh they were too concentrated in the crypto space somebody he came out today and said I think correctly that they were too concentrated in the deposit space they'll probably have to diversify that and that's that's I think that's accurate but um I I would guess that you know a bank that trading below tangible book and with a with all the other uh that more more cash than they have deposits right now so I I would guess it in a year from now silvergate would likely be at least tangible book which would have it be up you know would be 60 70 um FTX was a 32 billion dollar company in in the second week of November and coinbase is a seven billion dollar company today and it's it's a dominant us-based company so I I like both those things so you're back in itself belt
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