Most extreme 'no hire, no fire' economy we've ever seen, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel

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연말 계절성과 소비 지표(블프·사이버먼데이 양호)를 근거로 증시 견고함을 주장하고 신고점 가능성을 언급. 고용은 'no hire, no fire'로 해석 곤란. Mag7 과열 우려는 제한적이며 확산 장세를 긍정적으로 봄. 시티의 버블 분석에 반대하고 Mag7 중 테슬라·팔란티어 등 일부 고PER은 인정하나 나머지 주식과 Mag7 제외 PER 20 미만을 들어 버블이 아니라고 봄.

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01. It does take us to our talk of the tape. Can stock stage an endofear run? Let's ask the Wharton professor of finance, Jeremy Seagull. He joins us now. Professor, it's always great to talk to you. We usually do this on Fridays, which affords us the ability to size up this week and the past few weeks at that.

02. I mean, how does this market look to you here? The market looks very, very solid. Um, I I'll tell you one thing, I don't think we can rely on seasonal predictions. Uh, you know, we all said, "Oh, September, October are normally weak months." November normally the best month of the year, and it just squeaked out a little bit of a gain.

03. December is usually a good month, but can go either way. Actually, one of the most reliable periods for December is uh the trading days between Christmas and New Year's. That that's up almost uh 90% of the time. So, we could reach new records. Uh, I'm I'm actually fairly pleased with what I'm seeing in terms of holiday sales.

04. Uh, I was a little fearful that tariffs might impact those sales, but Black Friday was good. Cyber Monday was fairly good. Not gang busters, but it shows an economy that, you know, is is moving at a, you know, probably two two and a half% GDP pace. Um, one thing that's so unusual, Scott, I mean, yesterday when I saw jobless claims go to more than a three-year low, uh, and and the day before that on Wednesday, seeing the ADP employment report showing the lowest level in almost three years.

05. I mean, that is something that is just never supposed to happen. Uh, I mean, the the the labor market uh is is so hard to interpret. This is the most extreme uh no hire, no fire economy uh that we've ever seen. It's funny, professor, you know, there are some notes today that do talk about seasonality being in in our favor um as it as it tends to be, especially when you come into December with such a strong year leading into it.

06. But there's also a mention today of FOMO that it's in full swing yet again. That there are a lot of portfolio managers who have underperformed this market. maybe they couldn't be as large as they otherwise would have wanted to in some of the mega caps. So now the chase is on. Is there something to that?

07. Well, there there is, but again, you know, the Mag 7 has been the outperformers and they've been relatively weak actually over the last uh four to six weeks, which is a little bit surprising. Now, maybe some people will say, I got to get them on my balance sheet in the last couple of weeks of the year.

08. You do get some uh of that evening up that's happening. Um, but I'm actually rather pleased to seeing uh the rally broaden out. Uh, and right now I I actually see less FOMO than I think I uh saw maybe four or six weeks ago. Oh, interesting. You know, the the other idea is is what city puts forth today, professor, where they say no pain, no gain, and they use the A and the I in pain and gain in in in caps.

09. and talking about a bubble. We we think we're in a bubble in US equities, they say, but bubbles are initially quite profitable, so stay long. This is like, well, I guess you have to inflate it before you pop it, so we might as well ride this as long as we can. You know, the biggest question I always get, is this like the late '9s?

10. I said, well, just a minute. Is this like 96 or 99? There's a big there's a big difference about that. And by the way, that internet bubble was many times what we're seeing now. Uh uh you know, not in in both the tech stocks and the non- tech stocks. I'm actually pleased to see some caution in the mag 7 uh recently.

11. And uh I'm not saying, you know, I mean Tesla, Palunteer, there's a few of them that do have those tripledigit PE ratios, but the others uh you know, PE ratios of of 30 when you're growing 20% plus a year and beating on all metrics. I'm not saying they're the ones to own, but certainly I wouldn't say that they are in bubble territory.

12. And once you subtract the mag seven or the related tech, you get pees that are under 20, which in my uh you know playbook is absolutely not a bubble. So I I am not in agreement with uh you know city groups analysis