저자: 미상 · 외국인
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AI 인프라 투자 확대가 지속 중이며 특히 HBM 등 메모리 공급 부족이 장기간 이어질 가능성을 강조. 최근 조정은 빅테크 자금조달 부담, 지정학 리스크, 마진 정점 우려 때문으로 봄. 다만 공급 부족은 결국 투자 확대로 해소될 것이라는 점도 언급. 항공엔진(GE Aerospace)과 메모리 업황에 대한 언급 포함.
다듬은 글
with you, as you best know or can tell what happened on Friday and what happened today, because those days, separated by 48 hours of trading, are very, very different. Yes, Brian, as you know, stocks have been performing well for some time. So, I think a lot of people are worried about a break from the bottom because so many stocks are moving too fast.
And then anxiety arose. I would say that there were three reasons for concern last week. First, you know how strong the AI trend is, especially given some of the predictions that have come from Broadcom. The second, of course, is the realization that Google is going to raise 80 billion, SpaceX—75, OpenAI—maybe 100, Anthropic—75, and then Meta , of course, also applied.
So a lot of capital is being raised , and the public is being asked to fund it. And the third is, of course, geopolitical tensions. I think people in general are nervous before the weekend, worried about something happening in Iran. So, I believe those were the same reasons for concern, and as you know, we have these setbacks, and we commented on that over the weekend.
I believe it is false to say that the " bull" market is in trouble . I think the bull market is still intact and in very good shape. Tom, Tom, this is Kelly from the studio. And one of the areas that is clearly under the most pressure is cryptocurrency. And I know you say people shouldn't give up, but it seems to me that a lot of the buying activity has just left this space, and I'm not sure if it's ever going to come back.
Well , yes. I mean, Kelly, I think people are very disappointed with cryptocurrency this year because, first of all , it didn't grow when AI grew. But to some extent, cryptocurrency is a secondary story to AI, as with the increasing capabilities of AI, we are already hearing from many AI researchers that they are also competing with Pratt&Whitney for the entire Airbus A320 program.
It should be noted that Pratt & Whitney had certain problems, quality problems. So, GE Aerospace occupies a dominant position, and this is evident from the numbers: revenue growth of 36% year-on- year to 40.2 billion. They have a large order portfolio. And remember, about 2/3 -3/4 of their income is on service and parts, because after selling you the engine, they also service it.
So this is a company that, you know, is winning the competition from Pratt & Whitney , doing an incredible job. and Adobe. They are a major supplier of jet engines. And as I said, stocks are down a little bit today , but they've had incredible growth . Jen, that's not true. This is interesting. It seems Wall Street doesn't know what to do with these aerospace companies right now, as typically in times of geopolitical instability such defense names tend to rise.
Well, that's not necessarily the case. It seems like this is a truly unique period. And is this the culmination of not only the uncertainty in the Middle East, but also the rising cost of fuel, plus the government is spending money a little differently than we've been used to in the past. Yes. Absolutely true.
And look at Boeing, which we talk about a lot. The company's shares are struggling, despite increasing production volumes and attempts to overcome problems they have faced for several years. So maybe, as you know, it's a company. GE Aerospace is a company that supplies engines to Boeing and Airbus; they provide all of this.
So, the competition between them still remains strong. The order portfolios are large, so there is a lot of work on these engines and aircraft in general . It may take a Boeing turnaround for these stocks to continue to rise, but GE Aerospace is well-positioned for the future, Jen. Yes, and GE Aerospace, I would say, is a good comparison, since Boeing has now practically not changed since the beginning of the year.
At least GE has held its gains well since the beginning of the year and apparently hasn't retreated that significantly from its highs , notes the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Good morning to you, Neyt. Let's focus on memory. You have presented the arguments for and against growth. I think the positive forecasts are well known to everyone by now .
I'm more interested in the bearish view, especially given the volatility we've seen recently. Take us through some of these moments. Yes. Yes. Good morning, Sam. And yes, let me point out that I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I like to follow some of the most active trade types and industries.
Oh, and memory is obviously, you know, probably the hottest trend of 2026. So, if we can get a chart of Micron with a 50-day simple moving average, that would be great. It seems we are at a critical juncture. Sam , first of all, look at the mega-tech companies, the "magic seven," and then look at semiconductors.
Today, significant funds are being directed specifically to the " magic seven" campaigns. I know Apple has news about getting approval in China, but let's move on to Micron. So, SK Hynix shares fell by about 15% earlier this week. There was one Korean financial investment firm that actually said, we think SK Hynix will not achieve operating profit and margin growth of eight basis points or so, and they suggested that there might be a slowdown in average selling prices.
This has shaken the market to some extent or introduced the thesis: have we reached peak margin, have we reached peak pricing power—that's the narrative. Then we look at SK Hynix, as we know their ADRs were listed last week, and this is an offering we have heard about. One of the clearest messages from the latest round of technology reports is that the development of AI infrastructure is far from complete.
On the contrary, the world's largest technology companies are becoming even more aggressive. Every reporting season, investors ask the same questions. When will hyperscalers slow down their spending on AI? So far, the response has been surprisingly consistent . Not yet. Alphabet continues to expand its AI infrastructure.
Tesla is increasing its investment in computing capacity, while cloud providers continue to report strong demand, and executives reportedly describe an environment where customer demand still exceeds available capacity, which has huge implications for the semiconductor industry. For much of the past few years, investors have worried that the AI trend would eventually collapse under its own weight.
The concern has always been that companies were spending too much money too quickly. Eventually they will realize that there is no return. Capital spending will slow, demand for chips will weaken, and the AI infrastructure boom will come to an end. But recent comments paint a completely different picture.
Instead of discussing cost reductions, executives continue to talk about supply shortages. Instead of describing excess capacity, they explain why they still need more infrastructure. And nowhere is this more evident than in the memory market. Memory has secretly become one of the most valuable assets in the field of artificial intelligence.
Without sufficient high-bandwidth memory, even the most advanced AI processors cannot operate at full capacity. That's why companies compete so aggressively for supply. Tesla's earnings report perfectly highlighted this dynamic. Elon Musk separately thanked Micron for helping secure future memory allocations, acknowledging that the supplier must carefully decide which customers will receive limited quantities of the product.
He also called current memory prices extremely high . These comments reveal something important. Memory is no longer considered a commodity. It is increasingly becoming a strategic resource. Companies no longer wait until the last minute to purchase supplies. Instead, they negotiate years in advance.
Multi-year agreements are becoming more common as customers cannot risk shortages of one of the most critical components in the AI supply chain, marking a significant shift from the previous memory cycle. Historically , manufacturers produced memory, distributors sold it, and prices fluctuated depending on normal supply and demand conditions.
Today the market looks completely different. Customers try to guarantee access to products even before production begins. This changes the competitive environment. Companies with reliable supplies gain an operational advantage. Companies without long-term agreements may have difficulty obtaining sufficient quantities of components during periods of shortage.
This environment is naturally beneficial for companies capable of producing premium memory for AI. Micron continues to expand its presence in the high- bandwidth memory segment, while Samsung and SK Hynix remain the major suppliers in the industry. Demand has become so intense that many analysts now believe that the shortage of premium memory will persist for a long time to come.
Of course, investors shouldn't assume that the deficit will last forever. Any deficit ultimately encourages additional investment. Manufacturers are building new factories, and production volumes are increasing. Supply is gradually catching up with demand. Eventually prices stabilize. This pattern has existed throughout the history of semiconductors.
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