저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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버핏의 투자 철학과 인생 회고를 다룬 영상이다. 결론: 투자에 필요한 것은 높은 IQ보다 감정적 안정성과 독립적 사고, 그리고 '잃지 않는 것'이다. 핵심 원칙: 자신의 능력 범위(circle of competence) 안에서만 투자하고, 모든 기업을 알 필요는 없으며 소수의 좋은 결정으로 충분하다고 강조한다. 안전마진: 다리 통과 한도가 9,900파운드인 트럭은 1만 파운드 표지 다리를 건너지 않고, 더 여유 있는 20,000파운드 다리를 택해야 한다는 비유로 안전마진의 중요성을 설명한다. 운과 환경: 미국에서 태어난 것, 자본주의 시스템에 맞는 재능을 가진 것이 큰 행운이었다고 회고하며, 출생 시기·성별·인종에 따라 기회가 달랐다고 언급한다. 누적 학습: 젊은 시절 배운 기업 분석 원칙은 지금도 유효하며, 세부 산업은 변해도 좋은 사업과 좋은 경영자를 식별하는 원칙은 전이된다고 말한다. 빌 게이츠 일화: 1991년 컴퓨터의 잠재력을 당시 과소평가했다는 회고를 통해, 이해할 수 없는 분야는 투자하지 않는 원칙을 설명한다. 테드 윌리엄스 비유: 야구 타자처럼 자신이 잘 아는 좋은 공(기업)이 올 때까지 기다리라는 조언이다. 투자에는 스트라이크 콜이 없으므로 기다림이 유리하다. 코카콜라 사례: 하루 18억 잔 판매, 1페니 인상 시 연간 약 65억 달러 추가 이익이 발생하는 점을 들어 브랜드 가치의 힘을 설명한다. 일반 투자자 조언: 수익성 높은 기업을 찾는 데 시간을 들이거나, 그럴 시간이 없다면 인덱스 펀드를 꾸준히 장기 매수하라고 권한다. 현금은 장기적으로 가치가 하락하므로 최악의 투자라고 평가한다. 시장 전망: 금융위기 여파는 언젠가 끝나며 바닥을 정확히 맞추려 하지 말라고 조언한다. 바닥은 주가에서 먼저 나타나므로, 더 나은 기회를 기다리다 현재의 매력적 기회를 놓치지 말라는 메시지다. 결론: 장기적 관점에서 좋은 사업을 찾아 인내하며 보유하는 것이 핵심이다.
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my dad happened to be an investment business so I would go down his office on Saturdays and so at age probably seven or something I started reading these books that were around the place and so I had a 15-year jump on many people in a sense and that helped a lot and and I was always fascinated by them i knew what i wanted to do early and i think that's a huge advantage to and then you don't need you you don't need a lot of brains in this business I mean I've always said if you got an IQ of 160 giveaway 30 points or somebody else because you don't need it investments what you do need is emotional stability you have to you have to be able to think independently and they have to be deputies when you come to a conclusion you have to really not care what other people say and just follow the facts and follow your reasoning and and that's that's tough for a lot of people at that part I think I was just lucky with I was born that way it never bothered me if people disagreed with what I thought as long as I thought I knew the facts I mean I there's a whole bunch of things I don't know think about I just stay away from those so I still within what I call my circle of competence you know that Tom Watson said it best he said you know he said he said I'm no genius but I'm smarted spots and I stay around those spots well I try and stay around those spots and I I just don't have a problem if somebody says you know you're wrong on something I'd go back and look at the facts and I think that I think that really is much more important frankly than having a few points of IQ or or having an extra course or two in school or anything of the sort you need emotional stability I've got this rule rule y'all the first rule is don't lose in the second rule has never forget the first rule so it really isn't so much having a lot of brilliant decisions it's just not really having some terrible ones then and then he then he then he taught that famous lesson about a margin of safety that you don't drive a truck that weighs ninety nine hundred pounds across the bridges says limit ten thousand pounds because you can't be that sure about it if you see something like that you go down a little further down the road and if I whether it says limit 20,000 pounds and that's the one you drive across I've never forgotten it a lot of luck I mean I'm not just before in the United States in nineteen thirty the odds were like 30 to 1 against me you know and I didn't have anything to do with picking United States we sort of wired for capital allocation and being wired for capital allocation a couple hundred years ago and the brass between the meta fig and and even now being born in various parts of the world that wouldn't have been much but here i was in this soon to be very rich capitalistic system and and it just so happened to what I did paid off enormously in a market system like we have and I if I'd had a talent in some other area that was way less commercial I mean I would have I would have had a good time doing it but it wouldn't paid off like this but of course Jay said it perfectly when he talked about you know he's in a recording for himself and the money comes afterwards I mean I I got to do what I love I mean and it doesn't get any luckier than that isn't you can spend your life time and I'm 80 now and doing things you love every single day I mean I would be doing what I did what I do now and I would have done in the past if the payoff had been in seashells or sharks teens or anything else it if you can go to work every morning I tap-dance to work you know and I come down and I every day is exciting so that is lucky I mean that didn't have to happen that way if I'd been born in nineteen thirty if I'd been born a female if I'd been born black I would not have had the same opportunities that I had I mean it's just it's chance i mean i did my my parents love my sisters just as much as i love me my sisters are just as smart or smarter than i am and all of that but they didn't have the same expectations in the 30s for a young smart girls as for a young smart guy and i I've had all kinds of like I had the luck of I got turned down by Harvard well getting turned on down by Harvard that I got the study under Ben Graham at Columbia which changed my life I all kinds of things have worked out so I just want my stay lucky lucky for 80 years then you I will say this about investing everything you do earn is cumulative I mean that doesn't mean that industry stay good forever or businesses say good forever but but learning to think about business models what I learned that 20 is useful to me now whatever under 25 is useful to me now and so it's not successful it's not a feel but changes dramatically in terms of the underlying principles it's like physics I mean there's underlying principle now they're doing all kinds of things with physics I weren't doing 50 years ago but but if you know that if you got the principles if you know what makes a good business if you know what makes a good manager you know if he knows what makes a good product and you learn that in one business you can't there is some transference to other businesses you go along and you learn what things you're not going to understand I mean knowing what to leave out is just as important as knowing where to focus on and i don't think i can win every game you know somebody said how do you beat Bobby Fischer you play many game except chess so I don't play Bobby Fischer and there's a lot of value to ordering that over time and learning what you're good at and what you're not good at it's important thing is to the side is to be able to define which ones you can come to an intelligent decision on and which ones are beyond your capacity to evaluate you don't have to be right about thousands and thousands of thousands of companies he only has to be right about a company couple I met bill gates on July fifth nineteen ninety-one we're ugh Seattle and bill said you've got to have a computer and I said why and he said well he says you can do your income tax on it I said I don't have any income pircher doesn't pay a dividend and he said well you can keep track of your portfolio I said I only have one stock I said I did I mean he says it's going to change everything and I said what will it change whether people chew gum and even well probably not and I said what will change what kind of dumb made you and I said well in all stick a chewing gum and you stick to computers Chopin I don't have to understand all kinds of it there's all kinds of is I don't understand but there's thousands of opportunities there I didn't understand the bank of america you know and and I'll be able I I'm able to do that I'm able to understand some given percentage but Ted Williams wrote a book called the science of hitting and incisive hitting he's got diagram shows him at the plate and he's got the strike zone divided in the 77 squares each the size of a baseball and he says if I only swing at pitches in my sweet zone which he shows there and he has what his batting average would be which is 400 if he had the swing at low outside pitches but still in the in the strike zone is average would be 230 he said the most important thing and hitting is waiting for the right pitch now he was at a disadvantage because if the count was 0 and 2 or 1 and 2 or so on even if I ball was down where he was only going about 2 30 he had to swing at it in investing there's no called strikes people can throw Microsoft that man you know you name it any any stock General Motors and I don't have to swing and nobody's going to call me out on call strikes I only get a strike call that by swing at a pitch in this so i can wait there and look at thousands of companies day after day and only when I see something I understand and what I like the price of which is selling than if i swing if I if I didn't fine if I miss its a strike but it's an enormously advantageous game and it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything you only have to have an opinion on a few things in fact I've told students if when they got out of school they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one and you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich you know as four or five will probably do it over time so I don't worry too much about the things I don't understand it if you understand some of these businesses that are coming along and can spot things on if you can spot an Amazon for example I mean it's a tremendous accomplishment what Jeff Bezos has done and I tip my hat amis a wonderful business man he's a good guy too but could I have anticipated that he would be the success and 10 others wouldn't be I'm not good enough to do that but I'd unfortunately I don't have to you know I don't have to form an opinion on amazon and i do i did form an opinion on the bank of america and i form of opinion on coca-cola I mean Coco's all has been around since 1886 there's one point eight billion 1.8 billion eight ounce servings of coca-cola products sold every day now to take one penny and get one penny extra that's 18 million dollars a day and 18 million times 365 is seven billion three less 730 billion orders there's six billion 570 million dollars so annually six billion 570 million dollars from one penny do you think coca-cola's worth a penny more than you know Joe's Cola I think so so I you know and I've got about 127 years of history waiting to get it so those are the kind of decisions I like to make and you may have an entirely different field of expertise than I would have and probably much more up to date in terms of the kind of businesses that we're seeing above and you can get very rich if you just understand a few of them and understand their future how would you recommend an individual investor who follows a gram about philosophy to allocate their capital today well if the adventure that they're going to be an accident as a gram distinguish between the defensive in the enterprising investor if you spend a lot of time on investment you know I just advise looking at as many things as possible and you will find some bargains and and when you find them you have to act it doesn't it doesn't it hasn't changed at all since I was here in 1950-51 and it won't change the rest of my life so you just start turning pages when I got out of school I turned every page in Moody's 10,000 some pages twice being looking for companies and you have to find them yourself the world isn't going to tell you about great deals you have to find them yourself and that takes a fair amount of time so if you're not going to do that if you're just going to be a passive investor then I just advise an index fund bought consistently over a long period of time the one thing I will tell you is that the worst investment you can have is cash everybody saw about cash being king and all that sort of thing but I most of you don't look like you're overburdened with cash anyways but it's a cash is going to become worth less over time but good businesses are going to become worth more over time and you don't want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about about what you pay but the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it does that mean you think that we are through the roughest times of it you'd always kept the cash for it around 20 we always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry about sleeping at night but but it's not because I like cash as an investment cash is a bad investment over time but you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially I the worst the financial panic is behind us the economic spell out which came to some extent from that financial panic is it's it's still with us it will end I don't want to land tomorrow or next week or next month or maybe a year but it won't go on forever and to sit around and try and pick the bottom people were trying to do that last March and you know the bottom hadn't come in at unemployment the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stock so don't pass up something that's attracted today because your hope you're going to find something way more attractive tomorrow
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