저자: Jerry · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 트렌드 데이에 옵션·선물을 이용한 단기 트레이딩으로 다수 수익을 냈다는 복기 영상이다. [옵션 거래 사례] 테슬라(TSLA) 숏 옵션: 344.64 부근 신호 후 342.5 풋을 매수, 이후 약 7달러 진입 가격이 최고 약 14.91달러까지 올라 약 2배 수익을 냈다고 설명. Visa(V) 숏: 약 1.30달러에 진입해 최고 2.33달러 부근까지 약 2배 수익. Microsoft(MSFT) 롱/관련 옵션: 약 53~54달러 부근 진입 후 1 ATR 목표 약 2.91달러 부근으로 거의 2배 수익 주장. [단기 시간대 전략] 4개 상위 시간대(2시간, 1시간, 30분, 15분, 10분)를 정렬해 Dot Cloud 기준으로 정렬이 맞을 때 진입하는 방식을 설명. [원유·지수 선물] CL(원유) 숏 신호 60.72 부근, 58.68 부근까지 하락해 계약당 약 2,000달러 수익 주장. ES, NQ 선물도 동일한 시간대 정렬 방식으로 하락 흐름을 잡았다고 언급. [블랙박스 브레이크아웃] 블랙박스 브레이크아웃 신호로도 추세 이동을 일부 포착해 수익 실현했다고 설명. [리스크/조건] 조정장에서 급등락이 심하고, 하루 평균 진폭(ATR)에 남은 여유가 있는 추세일에 유효하다는 전제가 있음. [출연자 전망] 추세일에는 1 ATR 이동과 옵션 수익 기회가 크다고 강조. 향후 1~3개월 자산 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey folks this is Jerry with trade the fifth today is November the 12th today we had a pretty good trend day down and most of the indexes and I wanted to go through a couple of trades three trades that actually used options as the trading vehicle as opposed to the stock itself using the black box breakout indicator the first one I want to go through here is Tesla and what I've done was I've added the comparison symbol here at the bottom and I pasted it in the actual option code so what this is is a plot of the option that I traded which was for all three of the trades what I ended up doing is picking an option that was either at the money or one out of the money but very close to where the price signal what's going to be traded and that's generally what I'm gonna do it's also an option that expires this week you see in the code 1116 that's 1116 is Friday so I've traded this week's Friday expiration options and I'm generally going to do that for trades that I'm going to do in day trading options any event you can see that this particular trade here near the open had a signal at 344 64 roughly and I looked at a close to the close to that price when the single painted on this bar and this bar closed this line painted and I looked at an option that was close to the trigger price and in this case I took a 342 and a half put for a short trade and you can see that I got in right about there and it was trading roughly I don't know 686 I don't know 690 maybe it was seven dollars I forget exactly what it was but the point was that if you rode the trade really for another 30 40 minutes and started seeing this exhaustion signal where you had a big push down and then a pretty good-sized candle on volume pullback and we're around 180 R which is this dotted line and I've got a TR the average true range I keep track of for my trading making sure that I'm getting in the trade I still have a significant amount of the average true range for one day left available for the trade in this case it was only down a few dollars at the point we had here and I had a roughly 180 RS about 16 bucks anyway you can see that as an option trade and that's really the point I want to make here is that on these pretty good move trend days with a lot available room in an average true range for one day relative to where price is currently moved in the morning in this trade this option here went from let's say seven dollars up to a high of about fourteen ninety one so you could have doubled your money in this particular option and about I don't know the forty minutes or so the next one that I did was visa similar thing we triggered right in here got a short signal market was moving down I had room still left a couple of dollars in the average true range when I did this trade and I think I got in right around dollar thirty and the high again where we ended up exhausting and you start to see some of these consolidation candles down here ended up at two thirty three of the high so that was about a dollar almost a double in that one and the last one was Microsoft we got a single here and an entry I think it was right on this candle and the entry was roughly around dollar fifty three dollar fifty four and writing that one all the way up down to it you know one ATR which is dotted line would have been right around 291 so that was almost a double so basically three good signals with a lot of room left in the day from where the trade triggers painted to where we could have potentially gone we had a you know fortunate we had a trend day today which drove us down to most of the stocks finding one Average True Range move and getting roughly doubles and three option trades and a pretty good trading day so that's the options for the trade one other thing I want to talk about here really quick is you know obviously we're in a correction period in the market and when this is happening you're gonna get wild moves up wild moves down and one of the things that I've been looking at doing and it's starting to work out pretty well is to change the timeframe and the multiple time frame indicator for the dot cloud to be a much tighter range instead of on a 5 minute chart looking all the way out to a day I'm setting the bottom row to two hours than one hour 30 minutes 15 minutes and 10 minutes and I really get a tight range and I'm really looking to trade intraday trading within the day and using these kind of signals and indicators and you can see the alignment here when this thing has gotten four of the top roads painted together this turns into a square indicating the top row four rows are in alignment time they're all below they're clouds on their timeframes we had a short signal on CL at 60 point 72 and if you rode that one all the way down to the low it's 58 68 that was about two points in the oil contract as $1,000 per point that was a two thousand dollar trade for one contract and oil quite a tremendous trade never it you know you could have always trailed your stop below the cloud or some exponential moving average of your choice I can I often use the cloud and you can see that we never really broke it through the entire day here I've got the same thing for the futures for ES and NQ again I've changed to two hours our 30 minute while we're in this correction period I want to look at much shorter time breaks of these clouds on these other time frames and you can see that we've had you know multiple alignment of time frames these colors show a pull back against the trend which is bearish for the day and each one of these and this one in particular was a pretty good short you would have actually gotten most if not all of the move for today and yes we also had some black Brock's breakout trend moves that we ended up taking advantage of today I think this one was I'm trying to think of which one we had it was right around here I think we took this one boy I'm not sure exactly where it was but we had I'd have to go back and look at how he tweeted this out but we did take a couple of tracing it was this one here and we ended up writing this down and taking the profit in this area any event between the multiple time frame dots and black box breakout trade indicator lots of very very profitable trades today and it's kind of what you expect on a trend day to be in trends at a good period have a lot of good room to make the moves and make some good profits visa trade similar you know we hit I said option trade the last one I had I'm not sure if I went through that or not but we had triggered in here and again rode this one down and entered at this point and exit at that point for almost a devil anyway wanted to capture that real quick I didn't have a lot of time to do some deep in-depth trade analysis today for you but I did want to get this one out especially were in these trend A's to give you opportunities to take advantage of some fantastic short-term trades using options and futures thanks bye-bye
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