저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 장기적으로 유망하며 중국 규제 충격은 일시적이라는 낙관적 입장. 출연자 발언 요지: 비트코인은 송금 비용을 크게 낮추는 기술로 실제 작동 중이며, 변동성은 크지만 장기 가치 저장 수단(디지털 금)이 될 것이라고 봄. 중국 규제: 중국 내 ICO 금지·거래소 단속으로 업계가 혼란스럽지만, 중국 정부는 합리적이어서 결국 ICO와 거래소를 통제 조건부로 재합법화할 것이라고 전망. 다만 중국 내 채굴 물량이 큰 만큼 전면 금지는 어려울 것으로 봄. 규제 전망: 각국 정부의 규제 강화는 있겠지만 탈중앙 P2P 특성상 완벽한 집행은 불가능하며, 결국 정부가 밀려날 것이라고 주장. 가격 전망: 중국 단속 후 급락했다가 4,000달러 부근으로 회복 중이며, 본인은 큰 폭의 가격 상승을 기대한다고 언급. 지역 전망: 홍콩은 중국과 너무 가까워 리스크가 있고, 스위스·인도·필리핀 등이 합리적 거점이라고 봄. 보유 현황: 본인은 헤지펀드·펀드·개인계좌에 비트코인을 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 리스크: 변동성이 매우 크며 중국 규제 방향에 따라 단기 충격이 반복될 수 있음. 주요 인용: 향후 3~5년간 비트코인은 금 2.0 수준의 가치 저장 수단이 될 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
point is something that you've been interested in and supportive of in fact one can pay for a tour on Virgin Galactic up to the moon with Bitcoin I think the the Winklevoss twins have said that they would do exactly that this is a currency a currency that's really gonna work eventually I think it is working and there will be other currencies like it that may may be even better but in the meantime and there's a big industry around Bitcoin and you know people have made fortunes that Bitcoin some people have lost money at a Bitcoin it's volatile yeah but it is quite volatile but and but yeah when in volatile eternity people can make money out of politics why was it important for you to give it sort of that stamp of approval that endorsement by saying to the Winklevoss twins yes you can pay for the the ride with Bitcoin because I'm not foolish having it if people have got lots of bitcoins and they want to go to size and I much rather they spent that money on our spaceship whether I keep this bitcoins is another they spend that money on Virgin Galactic spaceship then on you know even we'll be sending people to space one day on Elon spaceship so we'll grab the money well it's well it's there Ilan versus Richard when will people be able to go to space well it's been tough getting the Rockets finished has been tougher than we thought but we we were building two separate - 2 separate rockets both came good two months ago since the spaceship is ready the mothership is ready the spaceport is ready now the Rockets have finished we're now over the next two months we'll start up our aerial flights then our flights into space so early next year and we're finding to be up of the way I think sightings that the need to move money from place to place the cost of doing so the overhead as you put it makes me think believe it or not of Bitcoin because some people have said hey bitcoin is the answer to those problems are you a believer well bitcoin is exciting because it shows how cheap it can be bitcoin is is better than currency and you don't have to be physically in the same place and of course the large transactions currency can get pretty inconvenient the customers we're talking about aren't trying to be anonymous you know they're willing to be known so McWane technology is key and you could add to it or you could build a similar technology where there's enough attribution that people feel comfortable this is nothing to do with terrorism or any type of money laundering sting comments today here at the dick con about what's happening in China of course we know about the crackdown on initial point offerings and also the crackdown on exchanges now you're saying some CEOs of Chinese Bitcoin companies can't travel what are you hearing on the ground about the state of disruption right now within China is everything is extremely uncertain any officer of any crypto currency exchange in China may not leave okay they're not being arrested at the air they've been told quietly that they should stay in Beijing the rest of the world is in chaos of course because no one's no one knows what's coming next that I know they're gonna ban and whining there would be extremely disruptive to the Chinese economy and to the world a lot of the Bitcoin mines globally are in China well the largest is in China they're owned by by Jae Hong Luo you know tens of thousands of machines mining 24 hours a day and those coins are saying in China so I do not think that won't happen and I truly believe that the Chinese government is a very rational government and in the long run we'll come back and legalize icos with certain the legislative restraints odds are we'll legalize exchanges again with the controls because what's happened people have taken advantage charlie people would come over and do icos in china promising a thousand percent return in a week okay please you can't do that and and so it was making everybody look bad so I think in the long run it's very good for the cryptocurrency community but do you think there will be too much regulation are more government's going to over-regulate and crackdown because you've heard all the arguments there's no intrinsic value of course etc yeah well of course they will but this will be a seesaw effect because when legislation is enacted people will will we're talking about a decentralized law a decentralized process where peer-to-peer activity is common you cannot legislate that well you can but then how are you going to enforce it you'd have to have an enforcer in everybody's home well we can't do that so so yes they want enact legislation people get around it more legislation will be enacted people will get around it but in the end governments will lose because the power of this technology supersedes and is way above the power of centralized government now I know you're on record as saying you expect significantly higher prices we saw this dip after the China crackdown right but it's already coming back to 4,000 ago is it 4,000 and it was not just China it was jamie diamond of JP Morgan a fraud fraud by one on right after him and said please sir wake up which is the fraud because it cost me because my kind of thing over a thousand dollars to create a Bitcoin what is the cost to create a hundred dollar bill please show me $20 you see hong kong playing a significant role now that china is not necessarily playing in the game at this point hong kong a lot of cryptocurrency companies have started up here here's the farm with hong kong it is still legally part of china right and while China has had difficulty integrating it if they choose they can step here and collect to me and everybody here so I think Hong Kong too close to China I think in Switzerland India the Philippines you know the reasonable places the world is a large planet Bitcoin and things like it is the equivalent of the red pill okay we are entering a completely world of uncharted water so I mean I personally I own Bitcoin in my hedge fund I own Bitcoin in my fund I own Bitcoin in my private account it is a huge deal it's a huge huge huge deal because what you're talking about right now is for the next three to five years an unbelievably better store value it is gold 2.0 a coin there is no Bitcoin company there is no Bitcoin building there is even not even a Bitcoin server anywhere that you could shut down it is completely distributed that's what's unique about Bitcoin it is for the first time a way for the two of us to exchange value online without a third party intermediary until the invention of Bitcoin for you and me to exchange money online we had to employ a third party like PayPal like Visa like MasterCard right and we live in a 21st century if we want to have a video call to China we can do that for free but to send a couple hundred bucks which is essentially just ones and zeroes being moved around costs five percent plus takes
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