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how we have a pretty bearish signal on the s p and on qqq what i'm talking about is two consecutive daily closes below the 50-day moving average because we are already below the 200 moving average and this is some of the evidence we're going to be using to build out our bear caves which we talked about on the weekend so another way of looking at it is that the s p and dow jones and the nasdaq all register their biggest august percentage decline since 2015.
this is important because historically august and september are the periods when we have the most seasonal weakness september actually being the worst month so if we have our worst month since 20 2015 and now we note here that we're getting bearish signals on the daily chart we don't we're we're continuing to close at or near the low of the day and that means that pressure is building up to the downside volume is also coming in so uh looks pretty bearish to me when we look over here to our weekly chart we note that uh oh we're already below our green line which is going to be our weekly support and we're quite a ways below it um we're actually poking down into uh 3 95 78 i believe is our daily gap but this is a gap i was watching for a long time we eventually filled it and now we're retesting it so now that the weekly chart also looks bearish because while we're still going down and we stopped going up and this was our period of going sideways it looks like we're headed for more downside one final way of trying to look at this uh sorry two more ways actually so first way here is going to be looking at what's been happening on es or the e-mini futures which trades continuously and i noticed a very similar pattern today than what happened yesterday we have a microwap trend or a small uptrend yesterday was on a key number uh 4015 and then uh right around the 50-day moving average as well uh we are above the v web but below the 50ma which means the profit and loss is green but we're below the average price so that's where we get that's what we like down after we lose both those areas and the uptrend well the same thing happened today we reclaim the v web we lose it come back up and reclaim it reject off the 50 and then we go down so until this pattern breaks where we go sideways overnight and then we break that up trend in the morning uh i think we're probably going to be going sideways to down i think the base case for the bears right now was sideways so two more ways of looking here would just be uh we note that we're now looking back to the area where we have the gap i'm going to hide all the lines you can see what i'm talking about and this goes back to early june so looking here in early june we have this key area and our relative high is three nine five seven eight uh our gap low is four oh one four four what's our high of the day ah four oh one two four yep so pretty much what we did is we we back tested the the the gap and then we came back down to basically close at the low this is impo this is important because when we look at qqq it pretty much has the same thing so qqq over here pretty much has that same gap and uh it's actually acting a little bit more bullish because it's holding the low of the gap smp has already gone back down to test the january 10th high or actually inside that gap so qqq is now testing this area here if we have more continued weakness it means that well we're probably going to go to test 295 on qqq that's about 1.5 to 2 percent lower um the final reason why i'm watching these levels into tomorrow is because it's the last calendar day of the month and when we're told that seasonally we normally see as much weakness and a little bit more in september than august august is usually our worst month we have quantitative tightening starting and uh the wheels seem in motion for these bears so again two daily closes below the 50 dma we're now hovering around the gap low which s p just lost this morning so if we open flat on on qqq tomorrow and then decline um i can understand the reasons why so now going back here to um es and now looking over here to spy on the one month chart so this is so critical because um again a big part of my of my thesis that we we could still go higher was that while we weren't going to lose this uptrend and what are we set to do tomorrow oh no we're set to lose it yes we are so we're set to lose it if we open at 395 technically we will be below so we need to get up here to roughly 400 to reclaim that uptrend this is a monthly candle but and when we look at this here oh boy that does not look good that is a perfect inverted hammer an inverted hammer is a reversal pattern we are closing at the low on the monthly currently at the low on the weekly and at the low on the daily so this tells me that there's pressure building up that wants to shoot down to what well probably minimum test our lows will be staged back in june which was uh 362.
that's about 10 lower from here roughly and this is important because we were talking about how um if we're truly repeating 20 2008 which i laid out in the weekend and you'll see that video here shortly um all we really have to do is just fade down from here right now that we rejected off of our 50 weekly moving average if we just come down to the 200 and then project here that becomes 2008 where it's going to be easier for us to go down by 50 then it won't um so i think it's really important for us to keep that that zoomed out perspective that yeah um we got a bear market rally that's what it was in hindsight a bear market rally um we're now we're now down more than just a dip we're now down by uh 8.5 percent off the off the 50 ma so that's a pretty notable cut going back in time again looking to uh 2008 and 2000 uh what do we have well we have the same pattern where we uh lose the short term price in the 50 bounce off the 200 and then reject off of the downtrend sorry off of the uh uh vma same thing happened here we're above we go below test the 200 bounce back up test the 50.
there's a rejection death cross followed shortly after so we've already talked in depth about this and um now that we're seeing the evidence we kind of have to realize that uh we have to be mindful of the potential downside things could all change with a payroll number on friday but uh hoping and praying is not a strategy we need to be prepared for the up the down and the flat uh just a few more things i want to look at here to note um we were talking about uh let's actually go back here to our line chart because um good time to check in with our psychology chart yep it's right there at 395 so we're going to be getting that that monthly close on spy chart is still technically valid and because this is a line chart all the we care about is going to be the next monthly close which will be september so is selling may and go away and come back on labor labor day going to come into play um as of right now we are down by roughly uh four percent from army close and all things again zoomed out with uh all things considered it's not really all that bad but the potential for the downside is now starting to mount and with the ecb flipping hawkish we did see the dollar bouncing around but it's settling here roughly flat near its 52-week high of 109.
all right switching gears here too uh let's look at bitcoin so bitcoin here uh still holding 20k so the market is uh is fading uh but bitcoin and ether are holding up so uh what does that mean well it means that maybe the the thesis i laid out on the weekend is starting to materialize those are the only real things i see that are green here on my board as well we got the two and ten year note up um inversion is down though so things are starting to uh to flatten out which is good um the 10-year note is rising which just means that long-term inflation expectations are now higher and there was a data point to support that we had uh european cpi commit overnight which was pretty hot it was 9.1 percent that's high that's a high number um so there we go um i'm skipping the adp non-farm payroll today because it's not been very accurate lately met is up i don't know why it's the only turd in town um right only turned in town so it looks like it's just getting a dead cat bounce just like bitcoin so is meta now like bitcoin oh jeez um only other things that were up were fxi and eem which is going to be china and emerging markets i want to check in on arc as well arc is only down by three cents or 0.07 percent and it's rocking that 41s relative lower the green line here which tells me that hey well uh it tells me that we've probably seen enough blood in growth and in bitcoin uh but if those things were accurate does it mean that the s p is now maybe going to not bounce back up into the end of the year and just start fading from here because um that global recession is now looking more and more likely um i don't really know there's anything else have to really look at there's some things which are coming down like inflationary like let's actually flip back over to here like oil oil is now down to 88 uh this is looking like a reversal pattern as well uh but then we're seeing things like uh like corn and things like wheat which are continuing to go up so corn again there were some bad bad yield numbers like crop yield numbers we reviewed those on the weekend and then also for wheat i think it's green on the week yeah it is so up two percent so there's there's there's definitely some mixed signals but the broader theme is that hey well if we're not fighting the tape the tape says we're normally down in september by the most that we have um seasonally for the last 25 years and if we're not fighting the fed i think the fed has been like hey right pounding on the table and telling us that hey well uh glad to see the market down market's doing our job finally so keep that in mind as you start to uh to ask yourself where we could go the last thing i will leave you with otherwise i would encourage you to watch the video that will keep up at the end of the and end here would just be all right so if now we're thinking about how could this uh this monthly chart play out here so for spy on the one month if we're going to get a bounce and then lose it again meaning if we get a dead cat bounce into the beginning of september should you believe it let's see if the market does no we're still dead locked on neutral so one point less than yesterday marcus kind of like hey whatever like is this this is all kind of kind of already known um what i would note is if we're gonna get a dead cap bounce to start the month off where i would expect not where i know we would get a rejection would be at uh the 50-day moving average for both so for s p to gather up steam for a reversal here um it has to print a daily high or high so for tomorrow that means 401.25 it would mean that it needs to get not only to the 50 dma but higher an inside bar tomorrow would be constructive but it would not be bullish because the volume here is looking pretty strong so we need that inside bar bull break the next day or uh on qqq if we look here now the high for the day is 304 91 and that 50 dma is at 305.07 so qqq or the qs have to get above 305.08 to reclaim the 50 dma and to print a daily higher high so with a with a daily close at the low it's looking a little bleak here um with uh with all that said i highly encourage you to watch the video that'll queue up right here here right now and if not i thank you so much you
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