저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 확산으로 기업 고용이 둔화되고 소상공인 창업이 늘고 있으며, 이는 AI 투자 붐이 아직 초기라는 신호다. 비트코인/금 비율은 바닥을 형성한 것으로 보이며 장기 상승 추세가 재개될 것으로 본다. 재정적자는 성장률 상회로 축소될 수 있고, 인플레이션 둔화 시 미국채 금리 하락 여지가 있다고 주장한다. S&P500/금 비율도 반등 중이며 기술혁명 하에서 상승 여지가 크다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Here's uh Bitcoin to gold. Gold is going down. Bitcoin had been going down. It seems to be in a bottoming process. Uh we believe that it has bottomed on this basis and uh and will uh resume. The uh the the very volatile but uh broad uptrend that you see on this chart might be going on here is uh that companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did and they are relying more on AI as many people are starting their own companies just with AI.
It's a a big recommendation from us for uh those of you who may be looking for a job. Just uh identify a problem you'd like to solve out there, one that frustrates you, probably frustrates other people, and start your own company. And do it with AI only. Kathy would just connected two dots nobody else is talking about.
AI is stealing jobs and Bitcoin is about to make its move. Here's why these matters to you. Bitcoin just hit a turning point. Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of Arc Invest, notes that both gold and Bitcoin have been sliding, but she believes Bitcoin has now formed a bottom relative to gold and expects the long-term uptrend to resume, though the climb higher will likely stay volatile.
At the same time, the job market is sending a warning sign, too, and it could affect you more than you think. What points to a clear culprit? Artificial intelligence. Companies are slowing down their hiring. Instead of growing their workforce like before, businesses are leaning on AI to do more with fewer people.
The impact hits hardest at the entry level, where AI now handles many of the routine tasks that once gave young professionals their first foothold in a career. If you're just starting, this is the shift you need to understand. The numbers back this up. Michigan's unemployment rate jumped to 5.1% in May, well above the national rate of 4.2%.
Employers added only 57,000 jobs in June, far fewer than expected. Small business hiring plans have sunk to their lowest level since early CO 19. Household employment dropped by roughly 500,000 while non-farm payrolls rose by just 57,000, half of what economists forecasted. Wood's answer is one you can act on.
Stop waiting for a job offer. Find a real problem worth solving. Build an AI powered solution. Launch a company using AI first tools. The message is clear. AI isn't just reshaping jobs. It's reshaping what it means to be employable. Before you dive in, hit like and subscribe to our channel. Let's hit 1,000 subscribers together with your support.
Employment number was crazy. So household employment was down roughly 500,000. Non-farm payroll employment was up maybe 57,000. Um roughly half of what uh economists expected. Uh so on that score it was a very weak report. You can see on this chart uh rarely does this measure of employment decline in the absence of a recession uh which you can see in the shaded areas.
So what might be going on here is uh that companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did and they are relying more on AI uh and the new business creations which we are seeing uh from new business applications um that this measure of employment has not caught up uh with what's going on from an entrepreneurial point of view as as many people are starting their own companies just with AI.
It's a a big recommendation from us for uh those of you who may be looking for a job. Just uh identify a problem you'd like to solve out there, one that frustrates you, probably frustrates other people, and start your own company and do it with AI only. uh and just see how much you can do and how much more eligible you will be uh for a a job out there.
You'll probably go to the top of a to the top of the list. AI boom certainly is being sustained. Uh and we believe that it's really just begun. uh we went through, you know, 40 years where uh where this measure of capital spending peaked kind of at the same place and now we've just broken out and we're on our way.
Uh and uh we do believe this is a revolution that's going to as you know change um every company, every industry, every sector as these technologies converge, AI converging with all of the other technologies out there. Uh we think there could be a breakdown in the Treasury yield. uh if we're right that inflation um will move uh away well away from the 4.2% two he percent headline uh that is the CPI right now uh to something much lower true inflation's already lower and we could see that going negative the government measures may be moving into the 1 to 2% range uh here's uh here as you know we've been watching the S&P relative to everything uh this is a measure of wealth is a leading indicator to another one But you can see wealth fell apart in the the 70s into the early 80s uh according to this measure and uh it threatened to do that again recently with the Straits of Hormos and the Iran war uh but it's rebounding nicely and on the next page an even stronger uh measure of true wealth S&P relative to gold again fell apart during the 70s.
um was threatening to do so here again. Uh it did break uh below our range which made us a little uncomfortable. Uh although crude crude oil uh was not or S&P to crude oil was not validating it. Uh nonetheless we're happy to see it's on its way up again and we think it has far to go uh in this technology revolution.
Uh here's uh Bitcoin to gold. Gold is going down. Bitcoin had been going down. It seems to be in a bottoming process. Uh we believe that it has bottomed on this basis and uh and will uh resume the uh the the very volatile but uh broad uptrend that you see on this chart. Kathy Wood is breaking down something that affects every one of us whether we realize it or not.
The US government's balance sheet. She starts with a deep dive into fiscal policy, zeroing in on the federal deficit as a share of GDP. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, she notes, is aiming to shrink that deficit by the end of fiscal 2028. Here's why these matters to you. Bringing the deficit down to 3% of GDP is a goal largely within Congress's control, and it only requires about half the savings needed to balance the budget outright.
That's achievable. With nominal economic growth projected between 3.5% and 3.8% per year, hitting a 3% target would put the debt to GDP ratio on a downward path with a little breathing room built in. Now, let's talk about the number that's been making headlines. Wood doesn't shy away from it. Government debt has climbed past 100% of GDP, a milestone that has plenty of investors worried.
But she pushes back on the panic, arguing this figure only tells part of the story when viewed alone. The data shows just how big this challenge really is. The national debt reached 100.2% of GDP at the end of March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Debt held by the public hit 31.27 trillion as of March 31st.
While nominal GDP came in at an estimated $31.22 22 trillion dollar over the prior 12-month period. Let's get back to the video. We're starting with fiscal policy and you can see as usual deficit relative to GDP. The green line there is where uh Treasury Secretary Bessant uh is aiming to take the deficit by the end of 28 or at least fiscal 28.
So September of 28. uh we think uh that he and this administration will achieve a much lower deficit because growth is going to be much stronger we think uh than than is in most forecasts including the government's own forecasts. Uh so on the next slide uh want to continue here with fiscal policy. Here is a a chart.
The green line is debt government debt relative to GDP. So it's over a 100%. Uh and that has many people very concerned. Uh now you can look at the purple line and that's debt relative to equities in the United States. Uh and you can see that is on a down slope. Um we like to think of equities as representing wealth out there.
So debt uh relative to wealth uh going down. Nonetheless, as I was traveling around, this debt to GDP ratio ha has been getting a lot of press, mostly because people think that interest rates and inflation are going to be stuck at these levels for a very long period of time because the debt seems intractable.
Uh and uh we can only bail our uh self out of this uh problem by inflating it away. Um we disagree entirely. We're not as alarmed by this number. Uh we do think that as this government uh focuses on getting that deficit down. Uh that debt relative to GDP will start to come down again especially if we are right that uh growth uh is going to surprise significantly on the high side of expectations.
So here I wanted to take a look at both fiscal and monetary policy in a single glance uh to show the contrast between today um now that we have pretty much uh we are on the other side of the COVID boom bust uh and the 60s and 70s and you can see how different uh it was back then. Uh the the purple line was federal outlies outlays and you can see what so-called guns and butter did back then.
Guns, we were in the Vietnam War, so defense spending was booming and uh guns and butter uh the social programs that were put in place back then all ballooned uh government spending. And you can see from the green line while it didn't accommodate it alto together uh over time uh money growth accelerated and uh and really by the late7s was accommodating all of this spending.
AI is rapidly changing the way the economy grows. Businesses operate and new opportunities are created as innovation accelerates alongside stronger economic growth. Many of today's biggest concerns could begin to ease if inflation and deficits continue to move lower. The investment landscape may look very different over the next few years for investors.
Staying focused on long-term trends instead of short-term headlines could prove to be the biggest advantage. Do you think AI will solve today's economic challenges faster than most people expect? Share your thoughts in the comments. And if you enjoyed this discussion, don't forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications for more insights on AI, the economy, and the future of investing.
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