저자: Mike · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 발언자는 2020년 10월 8일 기준 기술주가 10월 중순 저점 이후 11월 초까지 강세를 보일 계절성에 근거해 지금이 기술주 매수 적기라고 주장한다. 시장 상황: 프리마켓에서 S&P500 선물이 상승 중이며, 트럼프의 스팀률러스 협상 결렬 발표에도 시장이 강하게 회복했다고 설명한다. 금은 주식 랠리에 참여하지 못하고 보합 마감 후 프리마켓에서 상승 중이다. 기술주 계절성: 에퀴티 클락 차트를 근거로 기술 섹터는 10월 중순이 역사적 최저 시기이며 10월 중순~11월 초에 강한 상승이 나타난다고 주장한다. 평균 연 수익률은 약 8%로 제시했다. 기술주 추천 및 방향: 기술주는 한 달 가까이 박스권에 있어 곧 돌파가 나올 것으로 본다. 애플·아마존, ARK 인베스트(캐시 우드 포트폴리오, 신고가 근접), 게임스탑(현금담보 풋옵션 보유 중), 이베이 계열 Etsy(신고가), 우버(장기 박스권이나 반등 기대)를 언급했다. 테슬라는 최고가에서 약 15달러 아래에 있다고 언급했다. 대선 전망: 바이든이 여론조사에서 두 자릿수 앞서 있으며, 개표 지연에도 바이든 당선 시 증시에 문제 없을 것이라는 보도를 언급했다. 금 전망: 금은 향후 10년간 주식을 상회할 것이라는 장기 견해를 유지하지만, 연말 산타랠리 기간에는 하락(표류) 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 하락 시 추가 매수 기회로 언급했다. 리스크: 1월에 2차 팬데믹 확산과 독감 시즌이 겹치며 큰 하락이 올 수 있다고 경고했다. 소형주: 코디(Cody, 뷰티 기업, 최근 50% 급등)는 단기 트레이드 대상으로 언급하면서도 펀더멘털이 깨졌다고 평가했다. 연말 선물 수요로 단기 랠리가 가능하다고 봤다. 출연자 전망: 발언자는 주로 단기(1~3개월) 기술주 강세, 금 단기 약세 및 장기 강세, 1월 하락 리스크를 제시했다.
다듬은 글
hey this is mike and it is thursday october 8th and we're in the pre-market right now it's about 4 15 a.m and the pre-market the market is up actually a third of a percent after a huge rise and this comes the day after we had trump announcing that the stimulus deal was dead and however he was still able to um leave the door open for a stand-alone like plan for a 1200 stimulus checks or whatever but the market recovered really strongly and it still looks like it's going to continue to run and this is because gold did not participate in the rally pretty much finished flat for the day never maybe spent a moment or two higher however in the pre-market gold is higher so you know gold wasn't able to run up with the s p 500 so the s p should have clear sailing for today in fact just now it popped another um tenth of a percent so it's up now almost half a percent so it looks like we're going to have an extended run here in the markets today which is good it's thursday so um if we don't anticipate any bad news we should be able to uh continue moving upward also tech did really well yesterday we had tesla uh continue to move upward it's about it's still about maybe 15 away from its all-time high it's been in a trading range for the past month however um i do think tech is going to move let's take a look at uh apple real quick here apple did move up and apple is also in the trading range so all the techs right now have been in a trading range really since that kind of that hive that we had in early september so all the tech stocks have been trading in a range however we're probably going to have a breakout soon if this market follows markets uh from the previous year so i want to refer to a website called equity clock and they do seasonality studies if you look at this this here is a chart of the seasonality of the tech sector and what you're seeing right here um in january it starts out with no gains or no losses and then by the time you get to december on average you get an eight percent return in tech now if you look at this uh chart here you see that the returns move up and down that you have some bullish months or bullish periods for tech and then some downdrafts the worst time of the year really for tech comes right here this is you're looking at sort of early to mid october now this bottom here is october 9th today is october 8th so we are reaching the historically low time of the year for tech as you can see here if you look at this chart look at this very violent upward move from sort of the middle of october all the way up to early november historically this is one of the most powerful times of the year for tech stocks so if you're looking to get into tech stocks today and tomorrow is the time all these stocks have been in a trading range so that means that there's no fear of missing out the fear of missing out is going to be right up here in early november so if you're looking to get into tech right now this is the time to do it because it looks like we're on the precipice of a big run and it makes sense because we've been in a trading range if you look at this right here this looks a lot like a trading range you notice we had the big downdraft in tech in mid-september and look at this equity clock here historically this is when tech falls and this is what happened with tech in 2020 we've been in this trading range since sort of late september to early october so this equity clock chart follows the same historical pattern so it looks like we are getting ready to rock it upward so let's take a look at some of the tech stocks you may want to consider getting into of course you have your apples and your amazon stocks and don't worry about the price because you can buy these you know fractional shares on robinhood and weeble you also may want to take a look at arc investment which is kathy wood's uh portfolio of innovative stocks it should definitely as actually arc has kind of bucked the trend it has kind of moved up within this time but however if it can break through that um if it could continue to break upward it has some clear sailing because right now it is at its all-time high so there's really nothing stopping it from moving forward and if we do have this sort of the historical seasonal upward uh you know upward move in tech arc will probably be one of the leaders um and then the one stock i'll talk about because it's the one stock i'm in i'm really invested in so is a gamestop which i'm using cash secured puts on this has also been in a trading range for about a month i expect it to move up along with the rest of the tech stock so you know right now it's a good chance it's a good time to look at tech and then you may want to also look at some of the lesser known techs i'm just gonna bring up etsy etsy is one of these real um top performers it's at an all-time high right now and this is like a really nice pattern here so you may want to look at etsy people tend to forget about this company but it really belongs right up there with your amazon apple facebook google you know it's a really great company you could also want to take a look at uber uber hasn't been talked about too much um it's been in a trading range for a long time but i think uber can definitely run um it's kind of not been doing anything but i think that this stock is kind of long overdue for a pop so everything is really looking good as far as if you want to get into tech the rally looks like it could be starting now it's looking like i don't want to speak too early but it's kind of looking like biden is ahead double digits in just about all the major polls so the election might be kind of locked up by now i think we still will have some chaos when it comes to the ballots because i looked at a website and it looks like more than 50 percent of all the votes that are going to be placed for the election are going to be done through ballots so we're definitely not going to know definitively what's going to happen on election day but looks like when all the ballots are tallied by is going to win and already i've seen some reports that people are saying well abide wind is not is actually going to be fine for the stock market so you don't have to worry about the sort of election uh joining chaos for the stock market and let's just take a look at gold because i do think gold as i said it will outperform equities in the next decade it's not going to do anything right now and that's just because equities look like they're going to have their usual santa claus rally and everything's going to go well for it so gold is probably going to drift downward if you're into precious metals this is actually a good time to um you know add to your position because you could add to your position at a lower cost but just don't expect any dramatic returns over the next couple of months because everybody's going to be there's probably not going to be any real fear in the market right now i think the fear in the market will come in january as the second wave of the pandemic really begins to take hold because i right now i don't see anything that's going to really mitigate the stop of the pandemic and on top of that you have the usual flu season so if people start getting the flu and then they get the coronavirus i mean that just compounds ain't everything so that could i think by january we could see a big down draft in the market so you just want to be careful about that and then finally i just want to look at this one stock that's been running nobody really talks about too much because it's been a penny stock is cody this is the beauty company they have uh some deals with kylie jenner it it it's been dying uh for the past a couple of months but it's had a nice rally from 265 to 330 just like a 50 rally really only in the past um couple of trading days now this stock may have gotten a little ahead of itself but you just may want to keep on your radar if you're looking for a penny stock that could run i feel like it may trace back like 50 percent of its gains however keep keep track of it because i think it's it's fallen you know pretty hard throughout the year and it's kind of just just almost for a dead cat bounce if you're looking to make a quick trade if you do any day trading um especially with the holidays coming up beauty is just one of those major categories that people buy gifts for young women so cody could see a run during the holidays but i would not stay in the stock too much longer because it just looks like it's it's fundamentally broken however if you're willing to speculate a little bit this is definitely a stock to look at so that's all i have right now for the pre-market open i'm going to do a special report after the market closes i have a couple of topics that i'm looking at but i haven't determined exactly what i'm going to do this special report and i think i'm going to kind of look at how the market moves and then i'll make my decision then but just be sure to take a look at that special report it'll come out around 4 30 after the market close or a half hour after market closes depending on where you are around the world so i hope you enjoyed this video if you did please be sure to like this video and subscribe and turn on notifications i uh do these videos before market opens every weekday and then i do some special reports on the weekend and also occasional special reports after the market closes okay thank you very much bye
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